Reading GBX? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track GBX free→Reading GBX? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track GBX free→NYSEIndustrialsRailroadsSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is neutral, and earnings quality is also neutral, indicating no significant strengths or weaknesses in these areas. Management's recent track record has been fairly steady, but the capital stance is capital unfriendly, which may raise concerns. The sector backdrop is a headwind, and risk is moderate. Peer multiples imply a price about 58% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is cheap, quality intact. If GBX reverses course and raises guidance next quarter, that could signal a sharp positive shift. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 7 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $49.34. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $48 GBX trades at 10× p/e, below its 23× p/e peer median. Our $117 fair value sits above the price; medium confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 59% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about -3%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only weak execution quality — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Industrials names rated neutral grew net income 57% of the time over the next year (vs 64% for the rest of the cohort, n=4882).
Over the trailing year it converted 1.30x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Industrials names rated neutral grew net income 57% of the time over the next year (vs 60% for the rest of the cohort, n=4440).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, Fed net liquidity, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $1.19 → $0.93 (-21.8% / 30d). 0 raised, 2 cut, 3 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 33% of analysts rate Buy.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$105.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$268.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $2,698.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: High fleet use shows strong demand for leasing services. A drop could show market weakness.
Confirms:Fleet use stays above 98% for two quarters in a row.
Disproves:Fleet use falls below 98% for two quarters in a row.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for GBX yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement On May 5, 2026 (the “Effective Date”), The Greenbrier Companies, Inc. (“Greenbrier”) entered into a Sixth Amendment to Fourth Amended and Restated Credit Agreement (the “Sixth Amendment”), with Bank of America, N.A. (“BofA”), as Administrative Agent (the “Facility Agent”), the guarantors party thereto, and the lenders party thereto, which amends that certain Fourth Amended and Restated Credit Agreement, dated as of September 26, 2018 (as amended prio…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Cheaper than its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q2
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Construction Machinery & Heavy Transportation Equipment.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
GBX The Greenbrier Companies, Inc. | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 37 of 100 | inexpensive | moderate |
CAT Caterpillar Inc. | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 52 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
CMI Cummins | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 43 of 100 | full | moderate |
PCAR Paccar | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 40 of 100 | fair | low |
WAB Wabtec | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 67 of 100 | full | low |
5 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by capital-allocation actions. Historically, Industrials names rated neutral grew net income 59% of the time over the next year (vs 60% for the rest of the cohort, n=1113).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLI
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Greenbrier aims to increase investment in its lease fleet to achieve double-digit growth in fiscal 2026.
Greenbrier plans a gradual production ramp-up, shifting some deliveries to early fiscal 2027.
Greenbrier aims to maintain its revenue guidance between $2.4 billion and $2.5 billion for fiscal 2026.
Why it matters: Investing more in the lease fleet supports recurring revenue growth. Less investment may signal caution.
Confirms:Greenbrier says spending on leasing and fleet management is over $205 million.
Disproves:Greenbrier says spending on leasing and fleet management is under $205 million.
Why it matters: Increasing investment in the lease fleet is key for double-digit growth. Progress signals confidence in future earnings.
Confirms:Management reports a big increase in lease fleet investment. They aim for double-digit growth.
Disproves:Management shows a slowdown or cutback in lease fleet investment plans.
Why it matters: Strong cash flow indicates healthy operations and supports dividend payments. A drop could raise concerns.
Confirms:Operating cash flow reported above $150 million in Q3.
Disproves:Operating cash flow reported below $150 million in Q3.
Why it matters: Keeping this guidance shows confidence in demand and stability. A drop would show bigger problems.
Confirms:Management confirms revenue guidance stays at $2.4B to $2.5B during the next earnings call.
Disproves:Management cuts revenue guidance to below $2.4B. This shows possible demand weakness.
Why it matters: More orders show strong market demand and growth. Fewer orders could mean market issues.
Confirms:Greenbrier announces over 3,000 new railcar orders for the next quarter.
Disproves:New railcar orders fall below 2,500 units in the next quarter.
Creation of a Direct Financial Obligation or an Obligation under an Off-Balance Sheet Arrangement of a Registrant To the extent required by
of this Current Report on Form 8-K, including the exhibit, shall not be deemed to be “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), and shall not be incorporated by reference into any filings made by the Company under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or the Exchange Act, except as may be expressly set forth by specific reference in such filing.
Regulation FD Disclosure On March 31, 2026, the Company issued a press releasing announcing a cash dividend of $0.34 per share. The dividend will be payable on May 11, 2026, to all holders of record of the Company’s common stock as of the close of business on April 20, 2026. A copy of the press release announcing the dividend is attached as Exhibit 99.1. The information set forth under this Item 7.01, including Exhibit 99.1, shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of the Securities Exchange…
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. On February 4, 2026, GBX Leasing 2022-1 LLC (the “Issuer”), a Delaware limited liability company and a wholly owned special purpose subsidiary of GBX Leasing, LLC (“GBXL”), a Delaware limited liability company and a wholly-owned subsidiary of The Greenbrier Companies, Inc. (“Greenbrier”) issued (i) an aggregate principal amount of $280,425,000 of the Issuer’s Secured Railcar Equipment Notes, Series 2026-1 Class A (the “Class A Notes”) and (ii) an ag…