Reading HY? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track HY free→Reading HY? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track HY free→NYSEIndustrialsFarm & Heavy Construction MachinerySnapshot 2026-06-15
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
Recent financial performance is weak, and the company was unprofitable over the past year, so its earnings quality can't be assessed. Management's recent track record has been steady, but risk is elevated, and the sector backdrop is a headwind. Peer multiples imply a price about 3% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is fair, but weakening, priced roughly in line with peers, but recent financials or earnings quality are weakening. If HY cuts guidance on the next call, that's a meaningful negative. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 2 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $37.75. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $38 HY trades at 0× p/s, below its 2× p/s peer median. Our $39 fair value sits above the price; low confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price sits about 3% below a flat-multiple fair value; not enough history to forecast a comparison. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
TTM earnings are negative, so the read leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods rather than P/E. This is a data condition, not a forward call.
No fragility gates fired.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Industrials names rated weak grew net income 58% of the time over the next year (vs 62% for the rest of the cohort, n=3678).
Over the trailing year it converted -0.90x of net income into operating cash flow.
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $-1.17 → $-1.13 (+3.4% / 30d). 0 raised, 1 cut, 1 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 100% of analysts rate Buy.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$192.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$434.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $3,894.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-15
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: The industrial sector is getting older. If growth speeds up, Hyster-Yale could gain.
Confirms:3-year revenue growth in the industrial sector increases back toward 10% or higher.
Disproves:3-year revenue growth continues to decline or stays below 5%.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for HY yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
with respect to the investor presentation is incorporated herein by reference. The information in this Current Report on Form 8-K, including Exhibit 99, is furnished pursuant to
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
TTM earnings are negative. P/E-based methods drop out and the estimate leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods. A data condition, not a forward call.
Roughly priced in line with peers.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Construction Machinery & Heavy Transportation Equipment.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
HY Hyster-Yale, Inc. | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 34 of 100 | fair | elevated |
CAT Caterpillar Inc. | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 52 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
CMI Cummins | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 45 of 100 | full | moderate |
PCAR Paccar | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 41 of 100 | fair | low |
WAB Wabtec | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 69 of 100 | full | low |
4 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by M&A activity. Historically, Industrials names rated stable grew net income 60% of the time over the next year (vs 59% for the rest of the cohort, n=792).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
via XLI
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Management aims for a modest full-year operating profit despite first-half losses.
Stated in 3 of last 3 quarters. Operating income was -$28M in 2026-Q1, indicating a challenging start. Management's expectation of a modest full-year profit suggests a need for significant improvement in the second half. Persistent statement, limited substantive delivery this quarter.
“Management expects positive developments in the second-half of the year to more than offset first half losses.”
“The Company anticipates a moderate operating profit for 2026.”
“Moderate full-year 2026 operating profit expected.”
Maintain capital expenditures within the $55-$70 million range for 2026.
Stated in 3 of last 3 quarters. Management has consistently projected capital expenditures between $55M and $70M for 2026. No specific capex figures for 2026-Q1 are provided, indicating a focus on maintaining this range. Recurring focus, narrow delivery so far.
“Capital expenditures for 2026 are projected to range from $55–$70 million.”
Anticipate strong revenue growth from improved volumes in the second half of 2026.
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Revenue was $795.2M in 2026-Q1, down from $923.2M in 2025-Q4, indicating a decline. Management anticipates improved volumes in the second half to drive growth, but current figures show limited progress. Persistent statement, limited substantive delivery this quarter.
and 7.01 of this Current Report on Form 8-K, the following Exhibit is furnished as part of this Current Report on Form 8-K. (d) Exhibits 99 Hyster-Yale, Inc. historical quarterly financial data, as posted on its website at www.hyster-yale.com on May 5, 2026. 104 Cover Page Interactive Data File (embedded within the Inline XBRL document) SIGNATURES Pursuant to the requirements of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, the registrant has duly caused this report to be signed on its behalf by the u…
of this Current Report on Form 8-K, the following Exhibit is furnished as part of this Current Report on Form 8-K. (d) Exhibits 99 Hyster-Yale, Inc. first quarter 2026 earnings release, dated May 5, 2026. 104 Cover Page Interactive Data File (embedded within the Inline XBRL document) SIGNATURES Pursuant to the requirements of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, the registrant has duly caused this report to be signed on its behalf by the undersigned hereunto duly authorized. Date: May 5, 2026…
with respect to the investor presentation is incorporated herein by reference. The information in this Current Report on Form 8-K, including Exhibit 99, is furnished pursuant to
and 7.01 of this Current Report on Form 8-K, the following Exhibit is furnished as part of this Current Report on Form 8-K. (d) Exhibits 99 Hyster-Yale, Inc. historical quarterly financial data, as posted on its website at www.hyster-yale.com on March 3, 2026. 104 Cover Page Interactive Data File (embedded within the Inline XBRL document) SIGNATURES Pursuant to the requirements of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, the registrant has duly caused this report to be signed on its behalf by the…
“Capex of $55-$75M forecasted 2026 Outlook.”
“Capital expenditures for 2026 are projected to range from $55–$75 million.”
“Strong revenue growth from improved volumes in the second-half of the year is anticipated.”
“Moderate full-year 2026 operating profit expected; Strong revenue growth from improved volumes in the second-half of the year is anticipated.”