Reading PCAR? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track PCAR free→Reading PCAR? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
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NASDAQIndustrialsFarm & Heavy Construction MachinerySnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is neutral. Earnings quality is also neutral. Management's recent track record has been fairly steady. Risk is low, but the sector backdrop is a headwind. Peer multiples imply a price about 8% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is fair. If PCAR cuts guidance on the next call, that could be a meaningful negative.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 7 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $121.04. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $121 PCAR trades at 26× p/e, below its 27× p/e peer median. Our $130 fair value sits above the price; high confidence. Analysts: $125–$139. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 8% below a flat-multiple fair value, in line with our forecast of about -6%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
No fragility gates fired. Regime (Mania) does not concentrate fragility.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Industrials names rated neutral grew net income 57% of the time over the next year (vs 64% for the rest of the cohort, n=4882).
Over the trailing year it converted 1.81x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Industrials names rated neutral grew net income 57% of the time over the next year (vs 60% for the rest of the cohort, n=4440).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $1.37 → $1.36 (-1.2% / 30d). 0 raised, 1 cut, 10 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 32% of analysts rate Buy.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$129.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$211.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $1,555.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Earnings results will show how well the company is doing. This is amid challenges.
Confirms one read:Earnings are more than 5% above what analysts expected.
Confirms the other:Earnings fall short of analyst expectations by more than 5%.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
Advances: Expand electric truck offerings
Market share growth supports electric truck expansion.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition On April 28, 2026 PACCAR Inc (the “Registrant”) issued a press release announcing its financial results for the first quarter of 2026 and announcing that it would hold a conference call with securities analysts to discuss first quarter 2026 earnings to be held that same day as more fully described in the press release attached as Exhibit 99.1 to this report. The information in this Current Report on Form 8-K, including Exhibit 99.1 hereto, shall n…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
$125.00 – $139.00 (median $126.00) · 3 analysts · as of 2026-05-11
Roughly priced in line with peers.
Richer than its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Construction Machinery & Heavy Transportation Equipment.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
PCAR Paccar | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 40 of 100 | fair | low |
CAT Caterpillar Inc. | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 52 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
CMI Cummins | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 43 of 100 | full | moderate |
WAB Wabtec | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 67 of 100 | full | low |
OSK Oshkosh | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 32 of 100 | inexpensive | elevated |
7 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Industrials names rated neutral grew net income 59% of the time over the next year (vs 60% for the rest of the cohort, n=1113).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLI
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
PACCAR plans to invest $725-$775 million in capital projects in 2026.
PACCAR plans to invest $450-$500 million in research and development in 2026.
PACCAR is expanding its range of battery-electric trucks, including new models for vocational applications.
Ensure smooth transition and management of CEO succession following recent executive changes.
Why it matters: The earnings report will show if revenue and profit trends continue. It is key for understanding the company's performance.
Confirms one read:PACCAR reports Q2 2026 earnings with revenues above $6.78 billion.
Confirms the other:PACCAR reports Q2 2026 earnings with revenues below $6.78 billion.
Why it matters: Investing in projects is key for future growth and production. It impacts long-term plans.
Confirms one read:Watch for PACCAR to invest more than $775 million.
Confirms the other:Watch for PACCAR to invest less than $725 million.
Why it matters: A smooth CEO change is key for company stability and direction.
Confirms one read:Management gives a clear update on the CEO change process and timeline.
Confirms the other:No news or signs of trouble during the CEO change.
Why it matters: Expanding electric truck options is key for PACCAR's future growth. It reflects the shift to sustainable transport.
Confirms:PACCAR announces new electric truck models or big orders for current models.
Disproves:PACCAR delays electric truck launches or fails to secure new orders.
Why it matters: Growth in PACCAR Parts is important for making money. It shows demand for services.
Confirms:PACCAR Parts revenue grows year over year by more than 4%.
Disproves:PACCAR Parts revenue declines year over year or grows less than 4%.
Why it matters: Higher R&D spending could lead to better products and market position. This is a key priority for management.
Confirms:Management announces an increase in R&D spending by more than 10%.
Disproves:R&D spending remains flat or decreases.
Why it matters: More investment shows trust in future growth and better operations.
Confirms:Q2 capital investments are more than $200 million.
Disproves:Q2 capital investments are less than $150 million.
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. Item 502(f). On April 27, 2026, the Compensation Committee of the Board of Directors approved the Long Term Performance Cash Awards (the “LTIP Cash Awards”) for the 2023-2025 cycle under the Long Term Incentive Plan for the Named Executive Officers identified in the Company’s March 18, 2026 proxy statement (the “Proxy Statement”). The total compens…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition On January 27, 2026 PACCAR Inc (the “Registrant”) issued a press release announcing its financial results for the fourth quarter of 2025 and announcing that it would hold a conference call with securities analysts to discuss fourth quarter 2025 earnings to be held that same day as more fully described in the press release attached as Exhibit 99.1 to this report. The information in this Current Report on Form 8-K, including Exhibit 99.1 hereto, sha…
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. (b) On January 14, 2026, C. Michael Dozier, Executive Vice President, announced his retirement from PACCAR after 37 years of service. Mr. Dozier’s retirement is effective April 1, 2026.
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. (c) Kevin D. Baney, 55, will be promoted to President of the Company effective January 1, 2026. Mr. Baney has served as the Company’s Executive Vice President since January 2025. He has worked at the Company for 31 years and has held positions of increasing responsibility throughout PACCAR, including as Senior Vice President and as Vice President a…