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Paccar (PCAR)
NASDAQIndustrialsFarm & Heavy Construction MachinerySnapshot 2026-06-16
Intact
$121.04+0.29%
Close 2026-06-16 · 1-day change
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
The bottom line
Recent financial performance is neutral. Earnings quality is also neutral. Management's recent track record has been fairly steady. Risk is low, but the sector backdrop is a headwind. Peer multiples imply a price about 8% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is fair. If PCAR cuts guidance on the next call, that could be a meaningful negative.
as of 2026-06-16
Quick facts
- Exchange
- NASDAQ
- Sector
- Industrials
- Industry
- Farm & Heavy Construction Machinery
- Market cap
- $63.52B
- Employees
- —
- IPO date
- 1994-03-24
- Next earnings
- 2026-07-28
Price
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Adjusted daily closes (split & dividend). Scroll over the chart to zoom; click a range to reset.
EarningsMaterial event
What's priced in
(what the market already expects)What it's worth (estimated)
A consensus fair price across 7 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $121.04. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
12-month· primaryfair
$131.47consensus
Range $128.37 – $198.67
vs price: -8% below
Method agreement — · 7 methods
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
3-yearinexpensive
$254.17consensus
Range $220.38 – $288.71
vs price: -52% below
Method agreement — · 5 methods
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
5-yearinexpensive
How much to trust our fair value
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
Cheap vs peershigh confidence
At $121 PCAR trades at 26× p/e, below its 27× p/e peer median. Our $130 fair value sits above the price; high confidence. Analysts: $125–$139. Not investment advice.
Multiple (P/E)
25.8x
peer 26.9x · own history 21.3x
Premium
1.0x peer
1.2x its own history
Growth the price needs
-8%
our forecast -6%
Our fair value
$130.08
range $127.56 – $195.52
Analyst range(a guide on our number, not a target)Our number is in the analyst range
How this stock is priced
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
fairfair12-month view
What's priced inJustified
The price implies about 8% below a flat-multiple fair value, in line with our forecast of about -6%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Low fragilityrisk posture, not a price call
No fragility gates fired. Regime (Mania) does not concentrate fragility.
Historical context
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
How strong is the business
(quality & execution)Factor signals
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Recent financial performance
neutralOperating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Industrials names rated neutral grew net income 57% of the time over the next year (vs 64% for the rest of the cohort, n=4882).
62nd pctl · Industrials
Earnings quality
neutralOver the trailing year it converted 1.81x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Industrials names rated neutral grew net income 57% of the time over the next year (vs 60% for the rest of the cohort, n=4440).
65th pctl · Industrials
Macro sensitivity
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
- the broad stock market: This stock moves with the broad market (high beta).
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
Management & capital allocation
neutralEarnings setup & market context
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
Earnings setup · pre-print positioning
forward-looking
Strongly bearish10 analysts, 32% Buyfor period ending 2026-06-30
Why this setup
Consensus revisions
EPS estimate $1.37 → $1.36 (-1.2% / 30d). 0 raised, 1 cut, 10 covering analysts.
Rating actions
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 32% of analysts rate Buy.
Sector context
Intermediate · WeeklySector phase: industrials is in maturing, with decelerating (~3.2 years in phase).
Sector regime (90d momentum): headwind.Secular epoch: Growth by revenue growth · theme aerospace-recovery.Management scorecard
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
Overall: neutral
- Capital allocation
- neutral
- Earnings discipline
- neutral
- Margin discipline
- neutral
- Balance sheet
- weak
- Post-call reaction
- neutral
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
as of 2026-06-16
How bumpy is the path
(risk while you hold it)Risk: how this stock moves
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
Intermediate · WeeklyLong-term · 1–3 yr
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$129.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$211.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $1,555.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
lowas of 2026-06-16
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
What would change the read
(catalysts & re-read triggers)What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Short-term · Daily
- No material changes since the prior snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
What to watch next
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Intermediate · Weekly
- Either wayHigh confidenceMonthsactive 22d
Watch for Q2 earnings report on July 21, 2026
Why it matters: Earnings results will show how well the company is doing. This is amid challenges.
What confirms / what disproves
Confirms one read:Earnings are more than 5% above what analysts expected.
Confirms the other:Earnings fall short of analyst expectations by more than 5%.
Sector context
News catalysts
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
- 2016-10-289y agoThe Motley Fool
Advances: Expand electric truck offerings
Market share growth supports electric truck expansion.
Strongly reinforcesConfirmed
This sector is also watching
- Watch for impacts from upcoming FOMC decisions
- Watch for revenue growth speeding up in Industrials
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Intermediate · Weekly
Upside triggers
- If sector bellwethers like CAT, DE, and CNH keep beating earnings and guiding higher, the Industrials sector momentum should keep lifting PCAR and other Industrials names. Worth watching these names for early signals.
- If PCAR raises forward guidance on the next earnings call (currently NEW as of 2026-04-28), that's a momentum boost. Street estimates typically follow guidance up and the stock tends to re-rate higher.
Downside triggers
- If PCAR cuts guidance on the next call (currently NEW as of 2026-04-28), that's a meaningful negative. The Street tends to walk down estimates and the stock usually takes a leg lower.
- If sector bellwethers like CAT, DE, and CNH start missing or guiding lower, the Industrials tailwind helping PCAR and other Industrials names could fade. Watch these names for early warning.
- If GDP growth slows materially from the current 2.6% (say, below 2%), it hits PCAR and other Industrials names harder than the average stock, since the sector is growth-sensitive.
Recent events
(material 8-K / filing activity)Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-04-281mo agoItem 2.02
Results of Operations and Financial Condition On April 28, 2026 PACCAR Inc (the “Registrant”) issued a press release announcing its financial results for the first quarter of 2026 and announcing that it would hold a conference call with securities analysts to discuss first quarter 2026 earnings to be held that same day as more fully described in the press release attached as Exhibit 99.1 to this report. The information in this Current Report on Form 8-K, including Exhibit 99.1 hereto, shall n…
Earnings preannouncementneutral
Score history
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
-1.0 vs last weeklatest as of 2026-06-17
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.