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Alamo Group (ALG)
NYSEIndustrialsFarm & Heavy Construction MachinerySnapshot 2026-06-16
Intact
$153.37+0.86%
Close 2026-06-16 · 1-day change
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
The bottom line
Recent financial performance is neutral, and earnings quality is also neutral, indicating some stability but no strong momentum. Management's track record is neutral, and the capital stance is capital unfriendly, which could raise concerns for investors. The sector backdrop is a headwind, and risk is moderate, while the company's earnings yield is above typical for the sector, suggesting it trades at a cheap valuation. Peer multiples imply a price about 29% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is cheap, quality intact. This assessment is provisional.
as of 2026-06-16
Quick facts
- Exchange
- NYSE
- Sector
- Industrials
- Industry
- Farm & Heavy Construction Machinery
- Market cap
- $1.85B
- Employees
- 3,800
- IPO date
- 1997-03-27
- Next earnings
- 2026-08-05
Price
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Adjusted daily closes (split & dividend). Scroll over the chart to zoom; click a range to reset.
EarningsMaterial event
What's priced in
(what the market already expects)What it's worth (estimated)
A consensus fair price across 6 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $153.37. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
12-month· primaryinexpensive
$215.98consensus
Range $208.40 – $245.33
vs price: -29% below
Method agreement — · 6 methods
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
3-yearinexpensive
$365.49consensus
Range $320.09 – $601.49
vs price: -58% below
Method agreement — · 5 methods
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
5-yearinexpensive
How much to trust our fair value
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
Cheap vs peershigh confidence
At $152 ALG trades at 17× p/e, below its 23× p/e peer median. Our $215 fair value sits above the price; high confidence. Not investment advice.
Multiple (P/E)
16.6x
peer 23.4x · own history 18.1x
Premium
0.7x peer
0.9x its own history
Growth the price needs
-29%
our forecast 6%
Our fair value
$215.22
range $208.50 – $238.38
How this stock is priced
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
inexpensivecheap — quality intact12-month view
What's priced inJustified
The price implies about 29% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about 6%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Low fragilityrisk posture, not a price call
Only weak execution quality — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
Historical context
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
How strong is the business
(quality & execution)Factor signals
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Recent financial performance
neutralOperating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Industrials names rated neutral grew net income 57% of the time over the next year (vs 64% for the rest of the cohort, n=4882).
60th pctl · Industrials
Earnings quality
neutralOver the trailing year it converted 1.38x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Industrials names rated neutral grew net income 57% of the time over the next year (vs 60% for the rest of the cohort, n=4440).
46th pctl · Industrials
Macro sensitivity
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
- the broad stock market: This stock moves with the broad market (high beta).
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
Management & capital allocation
neutralEarnings setup & market context
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
Earnings setup · pre-print positioning
forward-looking
Neutral5 analysts, 75% Buyfor period ending 2026-06-30
Why this setup
Consensus revisions
EPS estimate $2.77 → $2.80 (+0.8% / 30d). 3 raised, 1 cut, 5 covering analysts.
Rating actions
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 75% of analysts rate Buy.
Material events
0 positive, 1 negative / 30d. See F4 management tile for the event list.
Sector context
Intermediate · WeeklySector phase: industrials is in maturing, with decelerating (~3.2 years in phase).
Sector regime (90d momentum): headwind.Secular epoch: by revenue growth.Management scorecard
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
Overall: neutral
- Capital allocation
- neutral
- Earnings discipline
- neutral
- Margin discipline
- strong
- Balance sheet
- neutral
- Post-call reaction
- neutral
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
as of 2026-06-16
How bumpy is the path
(risk while you hold it)Risk: how this stock moves
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
Intermediate · WeeklyLong-term · 1–3 yr
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$141.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$275.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $3,629.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
moderateas of 2026-06-16
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
What would change the read
(catalysts & re-read triggers)What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Short-term · Daily
- label change · signal_labelmoderate change
Signal changed from 'favorable' to 'mild_favorable'.
The signal changed to "mild_favorable." Risk fell. The sector backdrop remains a headwind. Valuation is described as cheap, indicating it trades below peer multiples.
as of 2026-06-16
What to watch next
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Intermediate · Weekly
- UpsideMedium confidenceQuartersactive 4d
Watch for better operating cash flow
Why it matters: Improving cash flow is key for funding growth and paying dividends. It shows financial health.
What confirms / what disproves
Confirms:Operating cash flow turns positive and exceeds $20 million in Q2 2026.
Disproves:Operating cash flow remains negative or below $20 million in Q2 2026.
Management priorities
News catalysts
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for ALG yet.
This sector is also watching
- Watch for impacts from upcoming FOMC decisions
- Watch for revenue growth speeding up in Industrials
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Intermediate · Weekly
Upside triggers
- If sector bellwethers like CAT, DE, and PCAR keep beating earnings and guiding higher, the Industrials sector momentum should keep lifting ALG and other Industrials names. Worth watching these names for early signals.
- If ALG beats again next quarter like it did this past one (a solid beat of +16% on the 2026-03-31 print), the momentum tends to extend, with Street estimates ratcheting up and the stock typically following.
- If the Fed starts cutting rates from the current 3.62%, that would be a tailwind for ALG and other Industrials names, since rate-sensitive parts of the market tend to rally when the Fed eases.
Downside triggers
- If sector bellwethers like CAT, DE, and PCAR start missing or guiding lower, the Industrials tailwind helping ALG and other Industrials names could fade. Watch these names for early warning.
- If GDP growth slows materially from the current 2.6% (say, below 2%), it hits ALG and other Industrials names harder than the average stock, since the sector is growth-sensitive.
Recent events
(material 8-K / filing activity)Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-05-2820d agoItem 1.01
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. Fourth Amended and Restated Credit Agreement On May 27, 2026, Alamo Group Inc. (the “Company”), as the borrower, and each of its domestic subsidiaries as guarantors, entered into a Fourth Amended and Restated Credit Agreement (the “2026 Credit Agreement”) with Bank of America, N.A., as Administrative Agent. The 2026 Credit Agreement provides the Company with the ability to request loans and other financial obligations in an aggregate amount of up to…
Capital allocationneutral
Score history
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
-1.0 vs last weeklatest as of 2026-06-17
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.