Alamo Group (ALG)

NYSEIndustrialsIndustrial - MachinerySnapshot 2026-10-23

$146.18-0.71%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Alamo Group’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

Comparable estimates unavailable

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

A matching fiscal period and sufficient coverage are required.

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least five analysts and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
Quarter ending 2026-12-30
Revenue	—	403.09M
EPS	—	2.521
Annual ending 2026-12-31
Revenue	—	1.71B
EPS	—	10.529
Annual ending 2027-12-31
Revenue	—	1.78B
EPS	—	12.177

Management figures unavailable.

What the Thesis Depends On

4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Cash from operations remains positive	A primary condition in Alamo Group's published investment case. The stated target is >0 USD.	Broken	Cash from operations remains negative or falls further next year	Cash from operations: $46.169M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >0 USD. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 3, 202646,169,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q2. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Maintain or increase dividend per share above $0.34	A supporting condition in Alamo Group's published investment case. The stated target is >=0.34 USD per share.	Intact	Dividend per share falls below $0.34 next year	Dividend per share: $0.34 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=0.34 USD per share. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 3, 20260.34 USD/share · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 73050674-7364-478a-8243-f691531b0f9e. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
EPS meets or exceeds $10.7 in FY26	A primary condition in Alamo Group's published investment case. The stated target is >=10.7 USD per share.	Improving	EPS falls below $10.7 in FY26	Diluted EPS: $2.55 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=10.7 USD per share. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 3, 20262.55 USD/share · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 73050674-7364-478a-8243-f691531b0f9e. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Revenue growth at or above 5.4% YoY	A primary condition in Alamo Group's published investment case. The stated target is >=5.4% YoY.	Intact	YoY revenue growth falls below 5.4% next year	Revenue growth: 7.55% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=5.4% YoY. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 3, 20267.55477 percent · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 73050674-7364-478a-8243-f691531b0f9e. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 4 quarters from 2025-Q3 through 2026-Q2. Revenue grew from $419.1M in 2025-Q2 to $450.7M in 2026-Q2 (+7.6%), driven by 12.8% growth in Industrial Equipment Division including Petersen acquisition. Vegetation Management sales were stable but faced headwinds. The trajectory shows delivering on revenue growth with strong Industrial Equipment performance and acquisition contribution. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPSUnavailable

$12.03 → Unavailable · observed estimates

FY2027 revenueUnavailable

$1.76B → Unavailable · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$12.03	$1,761,560,000	5 / 5
2026-07-25	$12.03	$1,761,560,000	5 / 5
2026-07-26	$12.03	$1,761,560,000	5 / 5
2026-07-27	$12.03	$1,761,560,000	5 / 5
2026-07-28	$12.03	$1,761,560,000	5 / 5
2026-07-29	$12.03	$1,761,560,000	5 / 5
2026-07-30	$12.03	$1,761,560,000	5 / 5
2026-07-31	$12.03	$1,761,560,000	5 / 5
2026-08-01	$12.04	$1,764,780,000	5 / 5
2026-08-02	$12.04	$1,764,780,000	5 / 5
2026-08-03	$12.04	$1,764,780,000	5 / 5
2026-08-04	$12.04	$1,764,780,000	5 / 5
2026-08-05	$12.04	$1,764,780,000	5 / 5
2026-08-06	Unavailable	$1,772,460,000	4 / 5
2026-08-07	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-08	$12.05	$1,773,840,000	5 / 5
2026-08-09	$12.05	$1,773,840,000	5 / 5
2026-08-10	$12.05	$1,773,840,000	5 / 5
2026-08-11	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-12	$12.18	$1,778,020,000	5 / 5
2026-08-13	$12.18	$1,778,020,000	5 / 5
2026-08-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-17	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-20	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-21	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-25	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-26	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-27	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-28	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-29	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-30	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-31	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-02	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-03	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-04	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-05	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-06	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-07	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-08	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-09	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-10	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-11	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-12	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-13	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-17	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-20	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-21	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-25	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-26	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-27	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-28	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-29	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-30	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-10-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-10-02	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-10-03	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-10-04	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-10-05	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-10-06	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-10-07	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-10-08	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-10-09	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-10-10	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-10-11	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-10-12	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-10-13	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-10-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-10-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-10-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-10-17	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-10-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-10-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-10-20	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-10-21	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-10-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-10-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-10-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold
2026-05-01	3	1
2026-06-01	3	1
2026-07-01	3	1
2026-08-01	3	1
2026-09-01	3	1
2026-10-01	3	1

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 3 Buy / Strong Buy · 1 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades0 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 0 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

Individual price-target observations are unavailable.

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Cash from operations remains positivePublished status: Broken
Maintain or increase dividend per share above $0.34Dividend per share: $0.34 per share
EPS meets or exceeds $10.7 in FY26Diluted EPS: $2.55 per share
Revenue growth at or above 5.4% YoYRevenue growth: 7.55%

Next proof point

Nov 5, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

0.9%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-33.0%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Alamo Group outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This investment is characterized as a durable compounder with a focus on revenue growth and shareholder returns. The current thesis state is stable, supported by strong recent financial performance, although there are risks from sector dynamics.

What's priced into Alamo Group

The market currently prices ALG as cheap compared to its peers, with a slight expectations gap indicating that some negative sentiment may be priced in. The valuation has recently increased, suggesting that the market recognizes ALG's potential despite its fragile earnings quality.

What the fundamentals likely do

Fundamentals are expected to show continued revenue growth, driven by strong performance in the Industrial Equipment Division. However, there is a moderate risk due to recent negative events and the potential for guidance cuts, which could impact future performance.

What Alamo Group hinges on

The long-term thesis hinges on the performance of sector bellwethers like GEV, PH, and TT, which could influence ALG's trajectory. Additionally, management's ability to maintain operational improvements and navigate recent challenges will be crucial.