Reading ASTE? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track ASTE free→Reading ASTE? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track ASTE free→NASDAQIndustrialsFarm & Heavy Construction MachinerySnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is neutral, while earnings quality is robust, cash backs up reported profits. Management's recent track record has been steady, but risk is elevated and the sector backdrop is a headwind, with ASTE trading below typical compared to sector peers. Peer multiples imply a price about 24% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is fair. Key factors to watch include any potential cuts to guidance and the performance of sector bellwethers like CAT, DE, and PCAR. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 7 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $52.57. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $51 ASTE trades at 17× p/e, below its 23× p/e peer median. Our $69 fair value sits above the price; high confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 26% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about 8%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
No fragility gates fired.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Industrials names rated neutral grew net income 57% of the time over the next year (vs 64% for the rest of the cohort, n=4882).
Over the trailing year it converted 3.16x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Industrials names rated robust grew net income 64% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=3333).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $1.05 → $1.08 (+2.5% / 30d). 3 raised, 0 cut, 4 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 100% of analysts rate Buy.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$170.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$339.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $2,784.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Strong backlog growth indicates demand and supports future revenue growth.
Confirms:Backlog growth remains above 30% year over year.
Disproves:Backlog growth falls below 20% year over year.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for ASTE yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition On May 6, 2026, Astec Industries, Inc. (the "Company") reported results of operations for the three months ended March 31, 2026. A copy of that press release is attached as Exhibit 99.1 and is incorporated herein by reference.
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Around its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Construction Machinery & Heavy Transportation Equipment.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
ASTE Astec Industries, Inc. | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 30 of 100 | fair | elevated |
CAT Caterpillar Inc. | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 52 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
CMI Cummins | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 45 of 100 | full | moderate |
PCAR Paccar | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 41 of 100 | fair | low |
WAB Wabtec | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 69 of 100 | full | low |
1 material management or governance event in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Industrials names rated stable grew net income 60% of the time over the next year (vs 59% for the rest of the cohort, n=792).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLI
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Astec aims to maintain its full year 2026 adjusted EBITDA guidance in the $170 million to $190 million range.
Astec continues to prioritize improving cash flow, as evidenced by increased operating cash flow.
Astec aims to enhance its gross profit margin through operational improvements.
The company is committed to maintaining its dividend payout to shareholders.
Why it matters: Better cash flow helps with growth plans and financial health.
Confirms:Operating cash flow is better than in Q1 2026.
Disproves:Operating cash flow is worse than in Q1 2026.
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On April 20, 2026, Astec Industries, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing that Chad Hartley will be appointed as Group President – Infrastructure Solutions of the Company effective May 11, 2026. Mr. Hartley is a highly accomplished manufacturing professional with a strong track record of driving positive results in large, diverse,…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition On February 25, 2026, Astec Industries, Inc. (the "Company") reported results of operations for the three months and year ended December 31, 2025. A copy of that press release is attached as Exhibit 99.1 and is incorporated herein by reference.