Reading TRN? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track TRN free→Reading TRN? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track TRN free→NYSEIndustrialsRailroadsSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is strong, but earnings quality and management's track record are neutral. The company has a capital-unfriendly stance, and the sector backdrop presents a headwind, although it trades above typical compared to sector peers. Peer multiples imply a price about 49% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is cheap, quality intact. The outlook hinges on guidance changes and sector trends, particularly the performance of major players in the Industrials sector. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 6 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $34.80. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $35 TRN trades at 11× p/e, below its 23× p/e peer median. Our $69 fair value sits above the price; medium confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 50% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about -10%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only weak execution quality — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Industrials names rated strong grew net income 69% of the time over the next year (vs 58% for the rest of the cohort, n=3696).
Over the trailing year it converted 1.36x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Industrials names rated neutral grew net income 57% of the time over the next year (vs 60% for the rest of the cohort, n=4440).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.78 → $1.35 (+73.7% / 30d). 1 raised, 0 cut, 2 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 0% of analysts rate Buy.
Market and fundamentals agree. Analysts are positioned bullishly on a fundamentally strong name.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$129.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$309.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $1,884.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: A $130 million gain shows good money management and cash flow.
Confirms:A press release says there is a non-cash gain of about $130 million in Q2.
Disproves:No gain reported or a gain much less than $130 million.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for TRN yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition." Additionally, Trinity posted its presentation for investors and interested parties to its website to accompany the conference call; a copy of these materials is furnished as Exhibit 99.3 and incorporated herein by reference. Forward-Looking Statements Some statements in this release, which are not historical facts, are “forward-looking statements” as defined by the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Forward-looking statements incl…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Cheaper than its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Construction Machinery & Heavy Transportation Equipment.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
TRN Trinity Industries, Inc. | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 100 of 100 | inexpensive | moderate |
CAT Caterpillar Inc. | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 52 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
CMI Cummins | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 45 of 100 | full | moderate |
PCAR Paccar | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 41 of 100 | fair | low |
WAB Wabtec | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 69 of 100 | full | low |
5 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by capital-allocation actions. Historically, Industrials names rated neutral grew net income 59% of the time over the next year (vs 60% for the rest of the cohort, n=1113).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLI
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Trinity Industries is prioritizing effective capital allocation strategies.
Trinity Industries is actively pursuing mergers and acquisitions to drive growth.
Trinity Industries is committed to maintaining regular dividend payments to shareholders.
Why it matters: Meeting or beating this EPS shows management's good outlook for the year.
Confirms:Q2 EPS reported at or above $0.32.
Disproves:EPS drops below $0.30, showing weaker performance.
Why it matters: A utilization rate over 97.3% shows strong demand for leasing.
Confirms:Lease fleet utilization is above 97.3% in Q2.
Disproves:Utilization drops below 96% in Q2.
Why it matters: Trinity's growth strategy relies on M&A. Progress here could boost future earnings.
Confirms:A press release says a deal is done. This helps growth.
Disproves:No news or delays in M&A activities. This shows slow growth.
Why it matters: Keeping or raising EPS guidance shows strong performance. It also reflects good market conditions.
Confirms:Trinity confirms or raises its EPS guidance above $2.40 for the full year.
Disproves:EPS guidance is lowered below $2.20 for the full year.
Why it matters: Stable or rising dividends show strong finances. They also show care for shareholders.
Confirms:Announcement of an increase in the dividend per share beyond the current $0.31.
Disproves:A dividend cut or freeze is announced. This shows financial trouble.
Why it matters: Trinity operates in a maturing sector. Changes in sector growth can impact its performance.
Confirms one read:Sector revenue growth speeds up above 8%. This may mean a recovery.
Confirms the other:Sector revenue growth slows down. This shows ongoing challenges.
Why it matters: Hitting this target shows strong demand and good railcar production.
Confirms:Q2 railcar deliveries are at or above 2,000 units.
Disproves:Deliveries fell below 1,800 units. This shows weaker demand.
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. On April 9, 2026, Trinity Industries Leasing Company (“TILC”), a wholly-owned direct subsidiary of Trinity Industries, Inc. (“Trinity” or the “Company”), entered into a Contribution Agreement (the “Contribution Agreement”) with TRIP Rail Holdings LLC (“TRIP Holdings”), Triumph Rail Holdings LLC (“Triumph Holdings”), NP SPE Holdings LP (“NP SPE”), and Napier Park Rail Evergreen Fund GP LLC. Pursuant to the Contribution Agreement, TILC contributed (i)…
Creation of a Direct Financial Obligation or an Obligation under an Off-Balance Sheet Arrangement of a Registrant On April 17, 2026, Trinity Rail Leasing 2025 LLC, a Delaware limited liability company (“TRL-2025”) and a limited purpose, indirect, wholly-owned subsidiary of Trinity Industries, Inc. (the “Company”), owned by the Company through the Company's direct, wholly-owned subsidiary Trinity Industries Leasing Company (“TILC”), issued (i) an aggregate principal amount of $447,439,000 of T…
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. On April 1, 2026, Trinity Industries Leasing Company (“TILC”) and Trinity Rail Leasing 2025 LLC (“TRL-2025”), both subsidiaries of Trinity Industries, Inc. (the “Company”), entered into a Note Purchase Agreement (the “Note Purchase Agreement”) with ATLAS SP Securities, a division of Apollo Global Securities, LLC, BofA Securities, Inc., Credit Agricole Securities (USA) Inc., Wells Fargo Securities LLC, PNC Capital Markets LLC, Regions Securities LLC,…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition." Additionally, Trinity posted its presentation for investors and interested parties to its website to accompany the conference call; a copy of these materials is furnished as Exhibit 99.3 and incorporated herein by reference. Forward-Looking Statements Some statements in this release, which are not historical facts, are “forward-looking statements” as defined by the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Forward-looking statements incl…