Reading BLBD? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track BLBD free→Reading BLBD? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track BLBD free→NASDAQIndustrialsFarm & Heavy Construction MachinerySnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is neutral. Earnings quality is mixed. Management's recent track record has been unsteady, with frequent changes. Risk is moderate, and the sector backdrop is a headwind. Peer multiples imply a price about 34% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is cheap, quality intact. The read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 6 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $73.21. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $73 BLBD trades at 16× p/e, below its 23× p/e peer median. Our $110 fair value sits above the price; low confidence. Analysts: $75–$86. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 34% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about 16%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
No fragility gates fired.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Industrials names rated neutral grew net income 57% of the time over the next year (vs 64% for the rest of the cohort, n=4882).
Over the trailing year it converted 1.55x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Industrials names rated neutral grew net income 57% of the time over the next year (vs 60% for the rest of the cohort, n=4440).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, Fed net liquidity, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $1.20 → $1.34 (+11.5% / 30d). 2 raised, 0 cut, 5 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 1 maintained. 86% of analysts rate Buy.
1 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 19.7% above current price.
1 positive, 0 negative / 30d. See F4 management tile for the event list.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$191.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$351.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $2,345.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Earnings results will show how the company is doing. They will also show future plans.
Confirms one read:Blue Bird reports Q3 earnings with revenue growth above 5% year over year.
Confirms the other:Blue Bird reports Q3 earnings with revenue growth below 0% year over year.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for BLBD yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement On May 12, 2026, Blue Bird Body Company, a wholly-owned subsidiary of Blue Bird Corporation (the “Company”), acting solely in its capacity as plan sponsor of the Blue Bird Body Company Employee Pension Plan (the “Plan”), a frozen defined benefit pension plan that is qualified under Internal Revenue Code, entered into an agreement (the “Agreement”) with Pacific Life Insurance Company and Pacific Life & Annuity Company (collectively, “Pacific Life”) re…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
$75.00 – $86.00 (median $86.00) · 3 analysts · as of 2026-06-09
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1, 2026-Q2
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Construction Machinery & Heavy Transportation Equipment.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
BLBD Blue Bird Corp. | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 98 of 100 | inexpensive | moderate |
CAT Caterpillar Inc. | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 52 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
CMI Cummins | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 43 of 100 | full | moderate |
PCAR Paccar | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 40 of 100 | fair | low |
WAB Wabtec | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 67 of 100 | full | low |
12 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by M&A activity. Historically, Industrials names rated volatile grew net income 59% of the time over the next year (vs 59% for the rest of the cohort, n=840).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLI
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Management aims to achieve $2.5 billion in revenue as part of their long-term growth strategy.
Management has raised the full-year Adjusted EBITDA guidance to $245 million.
Management aims for an Adjusted EBITDA margin of 15%+ on $2.5+ billion in revenue.
Why it matters: If revenue growth speeds up, it could signal a positive shift for Blue Bird Corp. in a maturing sector.
Confirms:Sector revenue growth speeds up to 8% year over year.
Disproves:Sector revenue growth remains below 5% year over year.
Why it matters: Changes at Caterpillar and GE may affect Blue Bird's position and market views.
Confirms one read:Caterpillar and GE have better insight scores over 20.
Confirms the other:Caterpillar and GE's insight scores fall below 10.
RESULTS OF OPERATIONS AND FINANCIAL CONDITION In accordance with General Instruction B.2. to Form 8-K, the following information shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended, nor shall it be deemed incorporated by reference in any filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, except as shall be expressly set forth by specific reference in such a filing. The information regarding the results of operations and financial conditi…
of the Current Report on Form 8-K of Parent filed on February 17, 2026; and (ii) the information set forth in Items 2.01, 3.02 and 5.03 of this Current Report on Form 8-K, originally filed on April 2, 2026. SIGNATURES Pursuant to the requirements of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, the registrant has duly caused this report to be signed on its behalf by the undersigned hereunto duly authorized. BLUE BIRD CORPORATION By: /s/ Ted Scartz Name: Ted Scartz Title: Senior Vice President and Gene…
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On March 30, 2026, and in connection with the closing of the acquisition contemplated by the Purchase Agreement and the Board Election Agreement entered on April 1, 2026 (the “ Board Election Agreement ”), the Board of Directors of Parent appointed Steve Girardin as a Class III Director, effective as of the closing, with a term expiring at the annu…
Completion of Acquisition or Disposition of Assets. Introduction As previously reported in its Form 8-K filed February 17, 2026, Blue Bird Corporation, a Delaware corporation (“ Parent ”), and its wholly owned subsidiary, Blue Bird Body Company, a Georgia Corporation (collectively “ Blue Bird ”), entered into an agreement to acquire the 50% interest in the Micro Bird joint venture owned by the Girardin Group. As more fully described below, this transaction closed on April 1, 2026. Micro Bird…