Reading CMCO? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track CMCO free→Reading CMCO? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track CMCO free→NASDAQIndustrialsFarm & Heavy Construction MachinerySnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
Recent financial performance is weak. Earnings quality is not assessable due to losses. Management's recent track record has been unsteady, with frequent changes. Risk is high, and the sector backdrop is a headwind. Compared with sector peers, CMCO trades below typical levels. Peer multiples imply a price about 67% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is cheap, value-trap risk. This pattern occurs because financials are weak or earnings quality is fragile. The read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 5 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $15.03. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $15 CMCO trades at 11× p/e, below its 23× p/e peer median. Our $42 fair value sits above the price; medium confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price sits about 64% below a flat-multiple fair value; not enough history to forecast a comparison. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
No fragility gates fired.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Industrials names rated weak grew net income 58% of the time over the next year (vs 62% for the rest of the cohort, n=3678).
Over the trailing year it converted 0.64x of net income into operating cash flow.
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, the US dollar, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.41 → $0.28 (-30.0% / 30d). 0 raised, 1 cut, 4 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 2 maintained. 75% of analysts rate Buy.
1 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 10.5% above current price.
0 positive, 1 negative / 30d. See F4 management tile for the event list.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$234.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$510.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $4,750.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Confirming revenue guidance shows strong demand and growth potential. It impacts investor confidence.
Confirms:Management confirms revenue guidance of $2.05B to $2.12B in the next earnings call.
Disproves:Management revises revenue guidance down to below $2.05B in the next earnings call.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for CMCO yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
RESULTS OF OPERATIONS AND FINANCIAL CONDITION. On June 4, 2026 , the registrant issued a press release announcing its financial results for the fourth quarter, which ended March 31, 2026. The press release is annexed as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K.
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1, 2026-Q2, 2026-Q3
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Construction Machinery & Heavy Transportation Equipment.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
CMCO COLUMBUS MCKINNON CORPORATION | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 22 of 100 | inexpensive | high |
CAT Caterpillar Inc. | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 52 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
CMI Cummins | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 45 of 100 | full | moderate |
PCAR Paccar | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 41 of 100 | fair | low |
WAB Wabtec | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 69 of 100 | full | low |
22 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by capital-allocation actions. Historically, Industrials names rated volatile grew net income 59% of the time over the next year (vs 59% for the rest of the cohort, n=840).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLI
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Focus on delivering $70 million of expected net annual run rate cost synergies.
The company has issued revenue guidance for fiscal year 2027, targeting $2.05 billion to $2.12 billion.
The company has issued adjusted EBITDA guidance for fiscal year 2027, targeting $390 million to $410 million.
Why it matters: Confirming EBITDA guidance shows strong performance. It can improve market feelings.
Confirms:Management confirms adjusted EBITDA guidance of $390M to $410M in the next call.
Disproves:Management cuts adjusted EBITDA guidance to less than $390M in the next call.
Why it matters: Achieving these synergies is key for improving profit margins. It shows management's ability to cut costs.
Confirms:Management reports achieving at least $35M in cost synergies by the next earnings call.
Disproves:Cost synergies reported below $20M by the next earnings call.
OTHER EVENTS. The Company announced that its Board of Directors declared and approved on March 23, 2026 a dividend of $0.07 per common share. The dividend will be payable on or about May 11, 2026, to shareholders of record at the close of business on May 1, 2026. A copy of the press release issued in connection with such action is attached to this Current Report on Form 8-K as Exhibit 99.1 and incorporated by reference herein.
Completion of Acquisition or Disposition of Assets. As previously disclosed in the Current Report on Form 8-K filed by Columbus McKinnon Corporation, a New York corporation (the “Company”), with the Securities and Exchange Commission (the “SEC”) on January 14, 2026, the Company entered into an Equity Purchase Agreement, dated as of January 13, 2026 (the “Equity Purchase Agreement”), by and among the Company, Star Hoist Intermediate, LLC (“Buyer”) and Royal NY Company Holdings, LLC (“Holdings”…
RESULTS OF OPERATIONS AND FINANCIAL CONDITION. On February 9, 2026 , Columbus McKinnon Corporation (the "Registrant") issued a press release announcing its financial results for the third quarter, which ended December 31, 2025. The press release is annexed as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K.
Completion of Acquisition or Disposition of Assets. As previously disclosed in the Current Report on Form 8-K filed by the Company with the SEC on February 12, 2025, the Company entered into the Stock Purchase Agreement, pursuant to which, and subject to the satisfaction or waiver of the conditions set forth therein, the Company agreed to purchase all of the issued and outstanding equity of Kito Crosby from the equityholders thereof. On February 3, 2026, upon the terms and subject to the cond…