COLUMBUS MCKINNON CORPORATION (CMCO)

NASDAQIndustrialsIndustrial - MachinerySnapshot 2026-10-23

$13.52-1.74%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge COLUMBUS MCKINNON CORPORATION’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

Comparable estimates unavailable

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

A matching fiscal period and sufficient coverage are required.

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least five analysts and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
FY 2027 · Q3
Revenue	—	520.38M
EPS	—	0.475
FY 2027 · Annual
Revenue	$2.09B–$2.15B	2.1B
EPS	$1.9–$2.1non-GAAP	2.013
EBITDA	$405M–$420Mnon-GAAP	—
Revenue growth	125%	—
FY 2028 · Annual
Revenue	—	2.19B
EPS	—	2.643

What the Thesis Depends On

4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Adjusted EBITDA near $400 million in fiscal 2027	The company targets adjusted EBITDA near $400 million next year.	Under Pressure	Adjusted EBITDA falls below $390 million in fiscal 2027	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Deliver $70 million in cost synergies by Q4 2026	A primary condition in COLUMBUS MCKINNON CORPORATION's published investment case. The stated target is $70M.	Improving	Cost synergies fall short of $70 million by Q4 2026	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Management targets $70 million net annual run rate cost synergies from the Kito Crosby acquisition integration, with early wins from third-party spend savings and expects to realize 20% of this in FY27. The trajectory shows solid early progress toward the full synergy target. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Stable management after CFO transition	A supporting condition in COLUMBUS MCKINNON CORPORATION's published investment case. The stated target is No further disruptive executive departures in next 4 quarters.	Intact	Additional key executive departures occur within next 4 quarters	0 disruptive departures vs 0 allowed News and filings show no disruptive executive departures; CFO transition was an internal promotion. Context reviewed through Oct 23, 2026Last status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Revenue reaches about $2.08 billion in fiscal 2027	Columbus McKinnon aims to grow revenue to about $2.08 billion in 2027.	Intact	Revenue falls below $2.05 billion in fiscal 2027	Revenue: $531.461M FY2027-Q1; GAAP. Published target: ~$2.08B. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 30, 2026531,461,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2027-Q1 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: f15dde02-7d1b-40cb-a038-d9a668b39015. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-03-31 · fmp

FY2028 EPS: comparable history unavailable.

FY2028 revenue: comparable history unavailable.

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2028 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-07-25	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-07-26	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-07-27	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-07-28	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-07-29	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-07-30	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-07-31	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-08-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-08-02	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-03	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-04	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-05	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-08-06	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-07	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-08-08	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-09	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-08-10	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-08-11	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-08-12	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-13	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-08-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-08-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-08-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-08-17	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-08-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-08-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 3
2026-08-20	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-08-21	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-08-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-08-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-08-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-08-25	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-08-26	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-08-27	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-08-28	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-08-29	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-08-30	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-08-31	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-09-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-09-02	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-09-03	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-09-04	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-09-05	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-09-06	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-09-07	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-09-08	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-09-09	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-09-10	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-09-11	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-09-12	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-09-13	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-09-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-09-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-09-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-09-17	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-09-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-09-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-09-20	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-09-21	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-09-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-09-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-09-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-09-25	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-09-26	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-09-27	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-09-28	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-09-29	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-09-30	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-10-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-10-02	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-10-03	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-10-04	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-10-05	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-10-06	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-10-07	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-10-08	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-10-09	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-10-10	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-10-11	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-10-12	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-10-13	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-10-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-10-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-10-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-10-17	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-10-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-10-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-10-20	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-10-21	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-10-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-10-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-10-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold
2026-05-01	3	1
2026-06-01	3	1
2026-07-01	3	1
2026-08-01	3	1
2026-09-01	3	1
2026-10-01	3	1

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 3 Buy / Strong Buy · 1 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades0 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 0 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

Individual price-target observations are unavailable.

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Adjusted EBITDA near $400 million in fiscal 2027Published status: Under Pressure
Deliver $70 million in cost synergies by Q4 2026Direct metric needs a verified mapping
Revenue reaches about $2.08 billion in fiscal 2027Revenue: $531.461M

Next proof point

Nov 3, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

2.1%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-47.5%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

COLUMBUS MCKINNON CORPORATION outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This is an acquisition-led industrial integration case, not a proven durable compounder. The thesis is in a watch state: guidance and orders have improved, but recent performance is weak and the overall signal has shifted from mildly favorable to mixed.

What's priced into COLUMBUS MCKINNON CORPORATION

The valuation evidence is mixed: CMCO is described as cheap versus peers, while the model also shows a 0.35 premium versus peers. The expectations gap is negative, and the priced-in tag is justified with low fragility, so the evidence does not point to especially fragile expectations; the business remains loss-making.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near term, results face elevated risk: the estimated chance of a miss is 41%, with erratic earnings surprises and recent performance below the industry cohort. For fiscal 2027, management raised revenue guidance and reported record first-quarter orders and sales, while targeting $70 million in annual net cost synergies and expecting to realize 20% in FY27; progress is described as mixed. The September credit-agreement and financial-obligation events, along with a CFO transition in August, add context, but the evidence gives limited detail on their effects.

What COLUMBUS MCKINNON CORPORATION hinges on

The main execution test is whether acquisition growth and cost savings support the raised fiscal 2027 guidance without a reversal, which could damage management credibility. The sector backdrop also matters: continued strength from GEV, PH, and TT could support industrial momentum, while misses or lower guidance from those companies could weaken it.