Reading MTW? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track MTW free→Reading MTW? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track MTW free→NYSEIndustrialsFarm & Heavy Construction MachinerySnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is neutral, and earnings quality is robust, cash backs up reported profits. Management's recent track record has been steady, but risk is elevated, and the sector backdrop is a headwind. Peer multiples imply a price about 19% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is fair, but weakening, as it is priced roughly in line with peers, but recent financials or earnings quality are weakening. Key factors to watch include guidance changes and sector trends, as these could significantly impact MTW's performance. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 5 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $12.85. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $12 MTW trades at 40× p/e — 1.7× the 23× p/e peer median. The market is re-rating it beyond its own range; our $16 fair value is medium-confidence here. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 21% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about 7%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
No fragility gates fired.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Industrials names rated neutral grew net income 57% of the time over the next year (vs 64% for the rest of the cohort, n=4882).
Over the trailing year it converted 4.89x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Industrials names rated robust grew net income 64% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=3333).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to real (inflation-adjusted) rates, the US dollar, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.20 → $0.11 (-44.1% / 30d). 0 raised, 1 cut, 2 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 0% of analysts rate Buy.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$201.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$437.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $3,174.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Valuation label changed from 'full' to 'fair'.
Valuation changed. The valuation label moved from full to fair. Risk fell. The sector backdrop remained a headwind. Earnings quality is robust, and management is stable.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: The earnings report will show if Manitowoc can improve its loss-making status. Investors will look for signs of recovery.
Confirms one read:The earnings report shows smaller losses. It may also show a return to making money.
Confirms the other:The earnings report shows ongoing losses. Financial metrics are getting worse.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for MTW yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Results of Operations and Financial Conditions On May 5, 2026, the Manitowoc Company, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing its earnings for the quarter ended March 31, 2026. A copy of such press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 and is incorporated herein by reference.
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Looks more expensive than peers.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Construction Machinery & Heavy Transportation Equipment.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
MTW Manitowoc Co., Inc. (The) | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 16 of 100 | fair | elevated |
CAT Caterpillar Inc. | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 50 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
CMI Cummins | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 42 of 100 | full | moderate |
PCAR Paccar | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 45 of 100 | fair | low |
WAB Wabtec | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 64 of 100 | full | low |
3 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Industrials names rated stable grew net income 60% of the time over the next year (vs 59% for the rest of the cohort, n=792).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLI
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
The company aims to maintain its full-year 2026 revenue guidance of $2.25 billion to $2.35 billion.
The company aims to achieve a 15% Adjusted Return on Invested Capital for the full year 2026.
The company has set a capital expenditure guidance range of $45 million to $50 million for the full year 2026.
Why it matters: If the industrial sector's revenue growth speeds up, it could help Manitowoc's performance. This will show if the sector is recovering.
Confirms:Sector revenue growth exceeds 5% year over year.
Disproves:Sector revenue growth remains below 5% year over year.
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. (e) At the 2026 Annual Meeting of Shareholders of The Manitowoc Company, Inc. (the “Company”) on May 5, 2026 (the “2026 Annual Meeting”), the Company’s shareholders approved The Manitowoc Company, Inc. 2025 Omnibus Incentive Plan as Amended and Restated (the “Amended and Restated Omnibus Plan”), including the grant of contingent equity awards to th…
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On March 27, 2026, James S. Cook resigned, effective as of March 29, 2026, from his position as Executive Vice President, Human Resources of The Manitowoc Company, Inc. (the “Company”), and, effective as of June 19, 2026 (the “Separation Date”), from his transitional employment with the Company. In connection with his resignation, on March 27, 2026…
Results of Operations and Financial Conditions On February 9, 2026, the Manitowoc Company, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing its earnings for the fourth quarter and year-ended December 31, 2025. A copy of such press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 and is incorporated herein by reference.
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On January 20, 2026, The Manitowoc Company, Inc. (the “ Company ”) increased the size of the Board of Directors (the “ Board ”) from eight directors to ten directors and elected Mark B. Rourke and Randy A. Wood as new directors to fill the vacancies created by such increase, effective immediately, each with a term expiring at the Company’s 2026 ann…