Manitowoc Co., Inc. (The) (MTW)

NYSEIndustrialsIndustrial - MachinerySnapshot 2026-10-23

$22.24+0.41%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Manitowoc Co., Inc. (The)’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

Comparable estimates unavailable

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

A matching fiscal period and sufficient coverage are required.

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least five analysts and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
FY 2026 · Q4
Revenue	—	651.2M
EPS	—	0.379
FY 2026 · Annual
Revenue	$2.3B–$2.4B	2.3B
EPS	$0.8–$1.2non-GAAP	0.917
Capital expenditure	$45M–$50M	—
Free cash flow	$50M–$70Mnon-GAAP	—
FY 2027 · Annual
Revenue	—	2.35B
EPS	—	0.833

What the Thesis Depends On

4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Capex between $45M and $50M in 2026	A supporting condition in Manitowoc Co., Inc. (The)'s published investment case. The stated target is Capex <= $50 million.	Intact	Capex exceeds $50 million in FY26	Capital expenditures: $14.1M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: Capex <= $50 million. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 7, 202614,100,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q2. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Capital expenditures totaled $22.3 million in first half of 2026, consistent with full-year guidance of $45 to $50 million. Management has maintained this capex discipline, indicating delivery on this priority. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
EPS between $0.45 and $0.90 in 2026	It targets EPS between $0.45 and $0.90.	Intact	EPS falls below $0.45 in FY26	Diluted EPS: $0.39 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: EPS >= $0.45. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 7, 20260.39 USD/share · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: b2f39ab1-b7e5-4f1d-81b3-79d2b0982835. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Free cash flow between $40M and $65M in 2026	Free cash flow should be $40M to $65M.	Intact	FCF falls below $40 million in FY26	Free cash flow: $-6.1M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: FCF >= $40 million. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 7, 2026-6,100,000 USD · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q2. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Capital expenditures totaled $22.3 million in first half of 2026, consistent with full-year guidance of $45 to $50 million. Management has maintained this capex discipline, indicating delivery on this priority. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Revenue at least $3 billion in 2026	A primary condition in Manitowoc Co., Inc. (The)'s published investment case. The stated target is >= $3,000 million.	Broken	revenue falls below $2.17 billion in FY26	Revenue: $594.9M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $3,000 million. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 7, 2026594,900,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: b2f39ab1-b7e5-4f1d-81b3-79d2b0982835. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS: comparable history unavailable.

FY2027 revenue: comparable history unavailable.

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 1
2026-07-25	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 1
2026-07-26	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 1
2026-07-27	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 1
2026-07-28	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 1
2026-07-29	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 1
2026-07-30	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 1
2026-07-31	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 1
2026-08-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-08-02	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 1
2026-08-03	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 1
2026-08-04	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 1
2026-08-05	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 1
2026-08-06	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 1
2026-08-07	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-08-08	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 1
2026-08-09	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 1
2026-08-10	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-08-12	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-08-13	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-08-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-08-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-08-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-08-17	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-08-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-08-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-08-20	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-08-21	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-08-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-08-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-08-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-08-25	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-08-26	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-08-27	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-08-28	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-08-29	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-08-30	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-08-31	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-09-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-09-02	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-09-03	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-09-04	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-09-05	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-09-06	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-09-07	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-09-08	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-09-09	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-09-10	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-09-11	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-09-12	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-09-13	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-09-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-09-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-09-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-09-17	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-09-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-09-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-09-20	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-09-21	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-09-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-09-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-09-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-09-25	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-09-26	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-09-27	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-09-28	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-09-29	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-09-30	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-10-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-10-02	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-10-03	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-10-04	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-10-05	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-10-06	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-10-07	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-10-08	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-10-09	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-10-10	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-10-11	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-10-12	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-10-13	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-10-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-10-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-10-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-10-17	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-10-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-10-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-10-20	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-10-21	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-10-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-10-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-10-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	0	0	2
2026-06-01	0	0	2
2026-07-01	0	0	2
2026-08-01	0	0	2
2026-09-01	0	0	2
2026-10-01	0	0	2

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 0 Buy / Strong Buy · 0 Hold · 2 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades0 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 0 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

Individual price-target observations are unavailable.

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Capex between $45M and $50M in 2026Capital expenditures: $14.1M
EPS between $0.45 and $0.90 in 2026Diluted EPS: $0.39 per share
Free cash flow between $40M and $65M in 2026Free cash flow: $-6.1M
Revenue at least $3 billion in 2026Published status: Broken

Next proof point

Nov 3, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

2.0%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-26.1%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Manitowoc Co., Inc. (The) outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

MTW is an industrial company with a cyclical backdrop, meaning business conditions can shift with the sector. Its long-term thesis is intact after a recent earnings beat and stronger financial performance, though near-term execution risk remains elevated.

What's priced into Manitowoc Co., Inc. (The)

Valuation is expensive versus peers, with a durable premium and a negative expectations gap, suggesting market expectations may be ahead of what fundamentals support. The priced-in assessment is tagged as justified, and no fragility signals were identified, but valuation has risen recently.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near term, revenue growth and raised 2026 adjusted EBITDA guidance show progress, while management has maintained its full-year sales outlook and capex plan. The picture is not risk-free: recent earnings have been erratic, and a 40% estimated chance of a miss makes the next report worth watching.

What Manitowoc Co., Inc. (The) hinges on

The multi-year view depends on MTW maintaining its raised guidance and continuing to deliver on revenue and profitability priorities. Sector conditions also matter: continued strength among industrial bellwethers could support the backdrop, while weaker results or guidance from them could remove that support; a guidance reversal would also damage management credibility.