Manitowoc Co., Inc. (The) (MTW)
NYSEIndustrialsIndustrial - MachinerySnapshot 2026-09-09
$21.00+0.05%
Close 2026-09-09 · 1-day change
NYSEIndustrialsIndustrial - MachinerySnapshot 2026-09-09
Broken: Primary pillar broken — Revenue at least $3 billion in 2026: FY26 rev guidance $2.3B-$2.4B vs $3.0B target.
Manitowoc aims for $3 billion revenue in 2026. It targets EPS between $0.45 and $0.90. Free cash flow should be $40M to $65M. Capital spending is controlled at $45M to $50M.
The company has missed earnings several times recently. Revenue growth is weak and guidance was cut. Profit margins and cash flow remain under pressure.
The price is about 12% below our fair value near $14. Analysts expect almost no revenue growth. Our view is slightly more optimistic on earnings recovery.
Breaks if: Capex exceeds $50 million in FY26
Maintain disciplined capital expenditures in the range of $45 million to $50 million for full-year 2026.
Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Capital expenditures totaled $22.3 million in first half of 2026, consistent with full-year guidance of $45 to $50 million. Management has maintained this capex discipline, indicating delivery on this priority.
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
This investment represents a durable compounder with a stable management team. The current thesis state is intact, as recent financial results are solid, but there are concerns about sector dynamics.
The market currently prices MTW at a premium compared to its peers, reflecting a justified valuation despite an expectations gap. This premium suggests that investors are anticipating continued strong performance.
Management has shown robust earnings quality and is on track to meet revenue guidance for 2026. However, the recent decline in company quality and the mixed status of adjusted EBITDA growth indicate potential challenges ahead.
The future performance of MTW hinges on the ability of sector bellwethers to maintain or improve their earnings guidance. Additionally, any reversal in MTW's guidance could significantly impact credibility and investor sentiment.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Yes, our read has strengthened. The earnings call indicated an increase in adjusted EBITDA to $150 million to $170 million in 2026. This supports a positive outlook for the company's financial performance. There are no new threats identified that could weaken this view.
as of 2026-09-09
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
“Capital expenditures $45 to $50 million”
“Maintains full year 2026 capex guidance $45 to $50 million”
“2026 capex guidance $45 to $50 million”
Breaks if: EPS falls below $0.45 in FY26
Breaks if: FCF falls below $40 million in FY26
Maintain disciplined capital expenditures in the range of $45 million to $50 million for full-year 2026.
Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Capital expenditures totaled $22.3 million in first half of 2026, consistent with full-year guidance of $45 to $50 million. Management has maintained this capex discipline, indicating delivery on this priority.
“Capital expenditures $45 to $50 million”
“Maintains full year 2026 capex guidance $45 to $50 million”
“2026 capex guidance $45 to $50 million”
Breaks if: revenue falls below $2.17 billion in FY26
Over the next 1 to 3 years, MTW's performance will depend on sector trends and management execution. Not investment advice.