Paccar (PCAR)

NASDAQIndustrialsIndustrial - MachinerySnapshot 2026-10-15

$110.82+0.01%

Close 2026-10-16 · 1-day change

Read the published Living FV report summary

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 15, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Paccar’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

-0.0%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

7.22 → 7.22 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 12 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 15, 2026 to Oct 15, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 11 to 12; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Living FV™

Living Fair Value by QuarterlyIQ

A valuation that evolves as the business changes.

A published Living FV snapshot is not available yet. The valuation workflow remains discoverable; a market target cannot supply the missing evidence.

View Living FV report and workflow

What the Thesis Depends On

4 key conditions need to be met for the investment thesis to play out.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Capital expenditures between $725M and $775M in 2026	A supporting condition in Paccar's published investment case. The stated target is $725M-$775M.	Broken	Capital expenditures fall below $725 million or exceed $775 million in FY26	Capital expenditures: $391.8M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: $725M-$775M. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 29, 2026391,800,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q2. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 6 of last 6 quarters. Capital expenditures guidance remained consistent at $700-$750 million for 2026, following $725-$775 million guidance in 2025. Actual quarterly capital investments were $171.9 million in 2025-Q1 and $226.8 million in 2025-Q2. The trajectory is delivering consistent capital investment aligned with stated guidance. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026
Maintain profit margins near recent levels	Profit margins and cash flow remain solid, supporting steady returns.	Improving	Profit margins decline significantly below recent levels over next 4 quarters	Net margin: 9.96% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: Maintain stable profit margins. Target percentage unit is not explicit. Source published Jul 29, 20269.96462 percent · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 9e1a0035-01aa-4670-954c-b4402398754e. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
R&D spending between $450M and $500M in 2026	A supporting condition in Paccar's published investment case. The stated target is $450M-$500M.	Intact	R&D spending falls below $450 million or exceeds $500 million in FY26	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Revenue growth of at least 7% in FY26	A primary condition in Paccar's published investment case. The stated target is >=7% YoY.	Broken	YoY revenue growth falls below 7% in FY26	Revenue growth: 0.48% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=7% YoY. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 29, 20260.481992 percent · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 9e1a0035-01aa-4670-954c-b4402398754e. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$7.22

$6.81 → $7.22 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$31.57B

$30.88B → $31.57B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$6.81	$30,879,654,840	13 / 12
2026-07-25	$6.79	$31,529,668,983	11 / 9
2026-07-26	$6.81	$30,879,654,840	13 / 12
2026-07-27	$6.81	$30,879,654,840	13 / 12
2026-07-28	$6.81	$30,879,654,840	13 / 12
2026-07-29	$6.90	$30,908,714,370	13 / 11
2026-07-30	$6.96	$31,644,546,937	10 / 8
2026-07-31	$7.09	$31,382,736,937	11 / 9
2026-08-01	$7.09	$31,382,736,937	11 / 9
2026-08-02	$7.16	$31,511,756,890	13 / 11
2026-08-03	$7.09	$31,382,736,937	11 / 9
2026-08-04	$7.09	$31,382,736,937	11 / 9
2026-08-05	$7.09	$31,382,736,937	11 / 9
2026-08-06	$7.21	$31,662,393,260	13 / 11
2026-08-07	$7.12	$31,548,436,937	11 / 9
2026-08-08	$7.18	$31,646,777,150	14 / 12
2026-08-09	$7.18	$31,646,777,150	14 / 12
2026-08-10	$7.12	$31,548,436,937	11 / 9
2026-08-12	$7.18	$31,646,777,150	14 / 12
2026-08-13	$7.12	$31,548,436,937	11 / 9
2026-08-14	$7.12	$31,548,436,937	11 / 9
2026-08-15	$7.12	$31,548,436,937	11 / 9
2026-08-16	$7.12	$31,548,436,937	11 / 9
2026-08-17	$7.12	$31,548,436,937	11 / 9
2026-08-18	$7.12	$31,548,436,937	11 / 9
2026-08-19	$7.12	$31,548,436,937	11 / 9
2026-08-20	$7.12	$31,576,060,852	12 / 9
2026-08-21	$7.12	$31,576,060,852	12 / 9
2026-08-22	$7.12	$31,576,060,852	12 / 9
2026-08-23	$7.12	$31,576,060,852	12 / 9
2026-08-24	$7.12	$31,576,060,852	12 / 9
2026-08-25	$7.12	$31,576,060,852	12 / 9
2026-08-26	$7.12	$31,576,060,852	12 / 9
2026-08-27	$7.12	$31,576,060,852	12 / 9
2026-08-28	$7.12	$31,576,060,852	12 / 9
2026-08-29	$7.12	$31,362,151,761	12 / 9
2026-08-30	$7.12	$31,362,151,761	12 / 9
2026-08-31	$7.12	$31,362,151,761	12 / 9
2026-09-01	$7.12	$31,362,151,761	12 / 9
2026-09-02	$7.12	$31,362,151,761	12 / 9
2026-09-03	$7.12	$31,362,151,761	11 / 9
2026-09-04	$7.12	$31,362,151,761	11 / 9
2026-09-05	$7.18	$31,362,151,761	11 / 9
2026-09-06	$7.18	$31,362,151,761	11 / 9
2026-09-07	$7.18	$31,362,151,761	11 / 9
2026-09-08	$7.18	$31,362,151,761	11 / 9
2026-09-09	$7.18	$31,362,151,761	11 / 9
2026-09-10	$7.18	$31,362,151,761	11 / 9
2026-09-11	$7.22	$31,498,151,761	11 / 9
2026-09-12	$7.22	$31,479,897,215	11 / 9
2026-09-13	$7.22	$31,479,897,215	11 / 9
2026-09-14	$7.22	$31,479,897,215	11 / 9
2026-09-15	$7.22	$31,479,897,215	11 / 9
2026-09-16	$7.22	$31,479,897,215	11 / 9
2026-09-17	$7.22	$31,479,897,215	11 / 9
2026-09-18	$7.22	$31,479,897,215	11 / 9
2026-09-19	$7.22	$31,479,897,215	11 / 9
2026-09-20	$7.22	$31,479,897,215	11 / 9
2026-09-21	$7.22	$31,479,897,215	11 / 9
2026-09-22	$7.22	$31,479,897,215	11 / 9
2026-09-23	$7.22	$31,479,897,215	11 / 9
2026-09-24	$7.22	$31,479,897,215	11 / 9
2026-09-25	$7.22	$31,479,897,215	11 / 9
2026-09-26	$7.22	$31,479,897,215	11 / 9
2026-09-27	$7.22	$31,479,897,215	11 / 9
2026-09-28	$7.22	$31,479,897,215	11 / 9
2026-09-29	$7.22	$31,479,897,215	11 / 9
2026-09-30	$7.22	$31,479,897,215	11 / 9
2026-10-01	$7.22	$31,479,897,215	11 / 9
2026-10-02	$7.22	$31,479,897,215	11 / 9
2026-10-03	$7.22	$31,479,897,215	11 / 9
2026-10-04	$7.22	$31,479,897,215	11 / 9
2026-10-05	$7.22	$31,479,897,215	11 / 9
2026-10-06	$7.26	$31,479,897,215	11 / 9
2026-10-07	$7.24	$31,569,715,397	12 / 10
2026-10-08	$7.24	$31,569,715,397	12 / 10
2026-10-09	$7.22	$31,643,116,384	12 / 10
2026-10-10	$7.22	$31,643,116,384	12 / 10
2026-10-11	$7.22	$31,620,843,657	12 / 9
2026-10-12	$7.22	$31,620,843,657	12 / 9
2026-10-13	$7.22	$31,620,843,657	12 / 9
2026-10-14	$7.22	$31,620,843,657	12 / 9
2026-10-15	$7.22	$31,567,207,293	12 / 9

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold
2026-05-01	7	13
2026-06-01	6	13
2026-07-01	6	13
2026-08-01	6	13
2026-09-01	8	13
2026-10-01	9	10

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 9 Buy / Strong Buy · 10 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades4 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 16–Oct 15 · 4 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

Wells FargoOct 8 · prior Apr 29

$125.00 → $122.00-2.4%

Truist FinancialOct 5 · prior Jul 2

$131.00 → $125.00-4.6%

$0$72.05$144.10

0 raises · 2 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 16, 2026–Oct 15, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Capital expenditures between $725M and $775M in 2026Published status: Broken
Maintain profit margins near recent levelsNet margin: 9.96%
R&D spending between $450M and $500M in 2026Direct metric needs a verified mapping
Revenue growth of at least 7% in FY26Published status: Broken

Next proof point

Oct 27, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

0.9%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-22.7%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Paccar outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 10, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This investment represents a stable, mature company with a focus on capital projects and innovation in electric trucks. The current thesis state is watchful, as recent performance has not kept pace with industry peers, but there are potential growth avenues.

What's priced into Paccar

Valuation appears neutral, with the market pricing in a slight expectations gap. The company's premium valuation compared to peers suggests that investors are not overly optimistic, but they are also not overly pessimistic.

What the fundamentals likely do

Fundamentals are expected to remain stable, with management prioritizing capital investments and R&D spending. However, recent changes in risk perception and the company's mixed financial performance indicate a cautious outlook.

What Paccar hinges on

The thesis hinges on the performance of sector bellwethers and whether PCAR can maintain its guidance without cuts. Additionally, the company's ability to expand its electric truck offerings will be crucial for future growth.