The Greenbrier Companies, Inc. (GBX)

Q: What's priced into The Greenbrier Companies, Inc. (GBX) stock?

The valuation evidence describes GBX as cheap versus peers, with a negative expectations gap, meaning expectations appear cautious relative to the valuation model. The priced-in assessment is tagged justified, and its fragility tier is low, so the evidence does not point to unusually concentrated valuation fragility.

Q: What does the The Greenbrier Companies, Inc. (GBX) outlook hinge on?

The next guidance update is a key swing factor: a cut would add to concerns, while maintaining guidance would support the current execution plan. Over the multi-year view, the thesis also depends on lease-fleet growth translating into recurring revenue and on production and deliveries recovering as planned. Results and guidance from rail-sector bellwethers such as UNP, CSX, and NSC could signal whether the sector backdrop improves or weakens.

NYSEIndustrialsRailroadsSnapshot 2026-10-23

$38.09-1.78%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge The Greenbrier Companies, Inc.’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

Comparable estimates unavailable

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

A matching fiscal period and sufficient coverage are required.

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least five analysts and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
Quarter ending 2026-11-30
Revenue	—	620.59M
EPS	—	0.835
Annual ending 2027-08-31
Revenue	—	2.68B
EPS	—	3.65
Annual ending 2028-08-31
Revenue	—	2.69B
EPS	—	4.8

Management figures unavailable.

What the Thesis Depends On

4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Capex at $95 million for next quarter	Profit margins remain near 14% gross and 6.5% operating next quarter.	Intact	capex exceeds $110 million next quarter	Capital expenditures: $59.6M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: capex <= $95 million. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 1, 202659,600,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q3 · Period ending May 31, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q3. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Double-digit growth in lease fleet units	Greenbrier grows its lease fleet by double digits in 2026, boosting recurring revenue.	Intact	lease fleet growth falls below 5% YoY in FY26	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. The lease fleet grew from 16,800 units in 2026-Q2 to 20,600 units in 2026-Q3, a 23% sequential increase. Management expects double-digit fleet growth for fiscal 2026 to grow recurring revenue. The trajectory is delivering with strong sequential growth and continued investment. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Gross margin near 14% and operating margin near 6.5%-6.8%	Profit margins remain near 14% gross and 6.5% operating next quarter.	Improving	gross margin falls below 12% or operating margin below 5% next quarter	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Fiscal 2026 revenue at $2.4B to $2.5B	A primary condition in The Greenbrier Companies, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is revenue between $2.4B and $2.5B.	Intact	revenue falls below $2.3B in FY26	Revenue: $576.5M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: revenue between $2.4B and $2.5B. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 1, 2026576,500,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q3 · Period ending May 31, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 518d5566-74ae-4eb0-83fa-2f13bef6c462. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 2 of last 3 quarters. Management revised fiscal 2026 guidance to reflect a more gradual production ramp-up with deliveries shifting into early fiscal 2027. Revenue declined from $706.1M in 2026-Q1 to $576.5M in 2026-Q3, consistent with the delivery shift. The trajectory shows management is managing the ramp-up as planned. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-08-31 · fmp

FY2028 EPS: comparable history unavailable.

FY2028 revenue: comparable history unavailable.

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2028 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-09-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-09-02	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-09-03	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-09-04	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-09-05	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-09-06	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-09-07	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-09-08	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-09-09	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-09-10	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-09-11	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-09-12	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-09-13	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-09-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-09-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-09-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-09-17	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-09-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-09-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-09-20	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-09-21	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-09-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-09-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
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2026-09-30	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
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2026-10-08	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-10-09	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-10-10	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-10-11	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-10-12	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-10-13	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-10-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-10-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-10-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-10-17	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-10-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-10-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-10-20	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-10-21	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-10-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-10-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-10-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	1	0	2
2026-06-01	1	0	2
2026-07-01	1	1	2
2026-08-01	0	1	2
2026-09-01	0	1	2
2026-10-01	0	1	2

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 0 Buy / Strong Buy · 1 Hold · 2 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades0 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 0 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

Individual price-target observations are unavailable.

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Capex at $95 million for next quarterCapital expenditures: $59.6M
Double-digit growth in lease fleet unitsDirect metric needs a verified mapping
Gross margin near 14% and operating margin near 6.5%-6.8%Direct metric needs a verified mapping
Fiscal 2026 revenue at $2.4B to $2.5BRevenue: $576.5M

Next proof point

Oct 26, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.0%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-35.7%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

The Greenbrier Companies, Inc. outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This is a cyclical industrial business with a recurring-revenue growth effort through its lease fleet. The long-term thesis is on watch: fleet expansion is progressing, while recent financial performance trails its industry cohort and overall risk is elevated.

What's priced into The Greenbrier Companies, Inc.

The valuation evidence describes GBX as cheap versus peers, with a negative expectations gap, meaning expectations appear cautious relative to the valuation model. The priced-in assessment is tagged justified, and its fragility tier is low, so the evidence does not point to unusually concentrated valuation fragility.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near term, revenue may remain affected by a more gradual production ramp-up and deliveries shifting into early fiscal 2027; revenue declined from the first to the third quarter of fiscal 2026, and full-year guidance was revised down. The lease fleet grew 23% sequentially to 20,600 units in the third quarter, supporting management's aim for double-digit fleet growth and recurring revenue. Execution evidence is mixed, and erratic earnings surprises, elevated risk, and a sector headwind temper the picture.

What The Greenbrier Companies, Inc. hinges on

The next guidance update is a key swing factor: a cut would add to concerns, while maintaining guidance would support the current execution plan. Over the multi-year view, the thesis also depends on lease-fleet growth translating into recurring revenue and on production and deliveries recovering as planned. Results and guidance from rail-sector bellwethers such as UNP, CSX, and NSC could signal whether the sector backdrop improves or weakens.

Bottom line

Over the next 1 to 3 years, GBX offers a cheap-versus-peers setup alongside a credible fleet-growth effort, but the thesis remains on watch because delivery timing, revised guidance, and elevated risk leave execution uncertain. Not investment advice.

Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
Quarter ending 2026-11-30
Revenue	—	620.59M
EPS	—	0.835
Annual ending 2027-08-31
Revenue	—	2.68B
EPS	—	3.65
Annual ending 2028-08-31
Revenue	—	2.69B
EPS	—	4.8

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-08-31 · fmp

FY2028 EPS: comparable history unavailable.

FY2028 revenue: comparable history unavailable.

Exact estimates & source dates

FY2028 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-09-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-09-02	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-09-03	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-09-04	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-09-05	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-09-06	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-09-07	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-09-08	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-09-09	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-09-10	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-09-11	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-09-12	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-09-13	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-09-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-09-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-09-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-09-17	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-09-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-09-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-09-20	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-09-21	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-09-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-09-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-09-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-09-25	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-09-26	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-09-27	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-09-28	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-09-29	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-09-30	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-10-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-10-02	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-10-03	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-10-04	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-10-05	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
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2026-10-09	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-10-10	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-10-11	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-10-12	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-10-13	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-10-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-10-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-10-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-10-17	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-10-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-10-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-10-20	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-10-21	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-10-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-10-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1
2026-10-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	1 / 1

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings