Oshkosh (OSK)

NYSEIndustrialsAgricultural - MachinerySnapshot 2026-10-23

$131.70-1.93%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Oshkosh’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

-1.2%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

13.98 → 13.80 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 12 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 24, 2026 to Oct 24, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 12 to 12; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
FY 2026 · Q4
Revenue	—	2.99B
EPS	—	3.757
FY 2026 · Annual
Revenue	—	11.14B
EPS	About $11non-GAAP	10.553
FY 2027 · Annual
Revenue	—	11.99B
EPS	—	13.804

What the Thesis Depends On

4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Improve cash from operating activities to positive levels	Tariff refunds improve cash flow and support dividends.	Improving	Cash from operating activities remains negative over next 4 quarters	Cash from operations: $374.3M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >0 USD cash from operating activities. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 28, 2026374,300,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q2. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Maintain or increase dividend payments	A supporting condition in Oshkosh's published investment case. The stated target is Dividend per share >= $0.57 in 2026-Q1.	Intact	Dividend per share falls below $0.57 in 2026-Q1	Dividend per share: $0.57 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: Dividend per share >= $0.57 in 2026-Q1. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q2. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Source published Jul 28, 20260.57 USD/share · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: b94a8afa-3c23-4973-b291-1cd1df40e3ba. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
EPS near $11.5 in FY26	Oshkosh keeps raising its dividend, now $0.57 per share in 2026-Q1.	Broken	EPS falls below $10.9 in FY26	Diluted EPS: $2.92 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=10.9 USD per share EPS. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 28, 20262.92 USD/share · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q2. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Revenue growth of about 10% in FY26	A primary condition in Oshkosh's published investment case. The stated target is >=9.7% YoY revenue growth.	Broken	YoY revenue growth falls below ~9.7% in FY26	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$13.80

$13.95 → $13.80 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$11.99B

$11.75B → $11.99B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$13.95	$11,745,720,250	18 / 15
2026-07-25	$13.95	$11,745,720,250	18 / 15
2026-07-26	$13.95	$11,745,720,250	18 / 15
2026-07-27	$13.95	$11,745,720,250	18 / 15
2026-07-28	$13.95	$11,745,720,250	18 / 15
2026-07-29	$13.95	$11,745,720,250	18 / 15
2026-07-30	$13.95	$11,745,720,250	18 / 15
2026-07-31	$13.93	$11,972,265,710	12 / 11
2026-08-01	$13.93	$11,972,265,710	12 / 11
2026-08-02	$13.94	$11,948,706,800	18 / 15
2026-08-03	$13.94	$11,948,706,800	18 / 15
2026-08-04	$13.99	$12,007,111,864	12 / 11
2026-08-05	$13.99	$12,007,111,864	12 / 11
2026-08-06	$13.99	$12,007,111,864	12 / 11
2026-08-07	$13.99	$12,007,111,864	12 / 11
2026-08-08	$14.00	$11,978,906,800	18 / 15
2026-08-09	$13.99	$12,007,111,864	12 / 11
2026-08-10	$13.99	$12,007,111,864	12 / 11
2026-08-12	$13.99	$12,007,111,864	12 / 11
2026-08-13	$13.98	$11,978,906,800	18 / 15
2026-08-14	$13.99	$12,007,111,864	12 / 11
2026-08-15	$13.99	$12,007,111,864	12 / 11
2026-08-16	$13.99	$12,007,111,864	12 / 11
2026-08-17	$13.99	$12,007,111,864	12 / 11
2026-08-18	$13.99	$12,007,111,864	12 / 11
2026-08-19	$13.99	$12,007,111,864	12 / 11
2026-08-20	$13.98	$12,007,135,479	12 / 11
2026-08-21	$13.98	$12,007,135,479	12 / 11
2026-08-22	$13.98	$12,007,135,479	12 / 11
2026-08-23	$13.98	$12,007,135,479	12 / 11
2026-08-24	$13.98	$12,007,135,479	12 / 11
2026-08-25	$13.98	$12,007,135,479	12 / 11
2026-08-26	$13.98	$12,007,135,479	12 / 11
2026-08-27	$13.98	$12,007,135,479	12 / 11
2026-08-28	$13.98	$12,007,135,479	12 / 11
2026-08-29	$13.98	$12,007,135,479	12 / 11
2026-08-30	$13.98	$12,007,135,479	12 / 11
2026-08-31	$13.98	$12,007,135,479	12 / 11
2026-09-01	$13.98	$12,007,135,479	12 / 11
2026-09-02	$13.98	$12,007,135,479	12 / 11
2026-09-03	$13.98	$12,007,135,479	12 / 11
2026-09-04	$13.98	$12,007,135,479	12 / 11
2026-09-05	$13.98	$12,007,135,479	12 / 11
2026-09-06	$13.98	$12,007,135,479	12 / 11
2026-09-07	$13.98	$12,007,135,479	12 / 11
2026-09-08	$13.98	$12,007,135,479	12 / 11
2026-09-09	$13.98	$12,007,135,479	12 / 11
2026-09-10	$13.98	$12,007,135,479	12 / 11
2026-09-11	$13.98	$12,007,135,479	12 / 11
2026-09-12	$13.98	$12,007,135,479	12 / 11
2026-09-13	$13.98	$12,007,135,479	12 / 11
2026-09-14	$13.98	$12,007,135,479	12 / 11
2026-09-15	$13.98	$12,007,135,479	12 / 11
2026-09-16	$13.98	$12,007,135,479	12 / 11
2026-09-17	$13.98	$12,007,135,479	12 / 11
2026-09-18	$13.98	$12,007,135,479	12 / 11
2026-09-19	$13.98	$12,007,135,479	12 / 11
2026-09-20	$13.98	$12,007,135,479	12 / 11
2026-09-21	$13.98	$12,007,135,479	12 / 11
2026-09-22	$13.98	$12,007,135,479	12 / 11
2026-09-23	$13.98	$12,007,135,479	12 / 11
2026-09-24	$13.98	$12,007,135,479	12 / 11
2026-09-25	$13.98	$12,007,135,479	12 / 12
2026-09-26	$13.98	$12,007,135,479	12 / 12
2026-09-27	$13.98	$12,007,135,479	12 / 12
2026-09-28	$13.98	$12,007,135,479	12 / 12
2026-09-29	$13.98	$12,007,135,479	12 / 12
2026-09-30	$13.98	$12,007,135,479	12 / 12
2026-10-01	$13.98	$12,007,135,479	12 / 12
2026-10-02	$13.98	$12,007,135,479	12 / 12
2026-10-03	$13.98	$12,007,135,479	12 / 12
2026-10-04	$13.98	$12,007,135,479	12 / 12
2026-10-05	$13.98	$12,007,135,479	12 / 12
2026-10-06	$13.94	$12,005,073,941	12 / 12
2026-10-07	$13.94	$12,005,073,941	12 / 12
2026-10-08	$13.94	$12,005,073,941	12 / 12
2026-10-09	$13.85	$11,995,896,238	12 / 12
2026-10-10	$13.85	$11,995,896,238	12 / 12
2026-10-11	$13.85	$11,995,896,238	12 / 12
2026-10-12	$13.85	$11,995,896,238	12 / 12
2026-10-13	$13.85	$11,987,541,785	12 / 12
2026-10-14	$13.85	$11,987,541,785	12 / 12
2026-10-15	$13.85	$11,987,541,785	12 / 12
2026-10-16	$13.85	$11,987,541,785	12 / 12
2026-10-17	$13.85	$11,987,541,785	12 / 12
2026-10-18	$13.80	$11,987,541,785	12 / 12
2026-10-19	$13.80	$11,987,541,785	12 / 12
2026-10-20	$13.80	$11,987,541,785	12 / 12
2026-10-21	$13.80	$11,987,541,785	12 / 12
2026-10-22	$13.80	$11,987,541,785	12 / 12
2026-10-23	$13.80	$11,987,541,785	12 / 12
2026-10-24	$13.80	$11,987,541,785	12 / 12

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold
2026-05-01	11	8
2026-06-01	11	7
2026-07-01	11	8
2026-08-01	10	8
2026-09-01	11	8
2026-10-01	11	7

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 11 Buy / Strong Buy · 7 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades3 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 3 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

Truist FinancialOct 5 · prior Jul 2

$190.00 → $174.00-8.4%

$0$104.50$209.00

0 raises · 1 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Improve cash from operating activities to positive levelsCash from operations: $374.3M
Maintain or increase dividend paymentsDividend per share: $0.57 per share
EPS near $11.5 in FY26Published status: Broken
Revenue growth of about 10% in FY26Published status: Broken

Next proof point

Oct 29, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.4%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-33.4%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Oshkosh outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

OSK is an industrial company with a recovery-oriented thesis, not yet a clearly durable compounder. Its recent performance has improved, but earnings quality remains fragile, risk is elevated, and the thesis state is watch.

What's priced into Oshkosh

The valuation evidence points to OSK being cheap versus peers, with a negative expectations gap suggesting assumptions are not demanding. The priced-in assessment says the weak execution is recognized without the broader combination of expensive valuation and turbulence that would signal concentrated fragility.

What the fundamentals likely do

Over the multi-year view, NGDV production is progressing: Transport sales grew year over year, though Transport operating income declined in 2026-Q2, showing the ramp still faces operational challenges. Fire truck manufacturing improvements remain gradual, while dividend growth is on track. Near term, recent misses and declining earnings surprises warrant attention, despite the July 2026 earnings beat and a stated low miss risk.

What Oshkosh hinges on

A favorable shift would require guidance to recover from the reduction reported as of 2026-07-28, alongside continued progress in NGDV production and fire truck operations. Industrial bellwethers such as CAT, DE, and CNH are also important signals: continued strength could support the sector backdrop, while misses or lower guidance could remove that support.