Oshkosh (OSK)
NYSEIndustrialsAgricultural - MachinerySnapshot 2026-09-09
$152.04-1.13%
Close 2026-09-09 · 1-day change
NYSEIndustrialsAgricultural - MachinerySnapshot 2026-09-09
Broken: Primary pillar broken — EPS near $11.5 in FY26: EPS guidance $10.5 vs $10.9 target.
Oshkosh keeps raising its dividend, now $0.57 per share in 2026-Q1. Analysts expect about 10% revenue growth this year. The company trades cheap with a PE of 14.6 versus peers at 23.1. Tariff refunds improve cash flow and support dividends.
Cash from operations fell sharply to negative $161M in 2026-Q1. The company missed EPS by 18% last quarter. Profit margins and earnings growth could weaken if operating cash flow does not improve.
The price is about 16% below our fair value near $172 and slightly below the Street median of $176. The market expects roughly 10% revenue growth, which aligns with consensus estimates. Our view differs slightly on cash flow risks.
Breaks if: Cash from operating activities remains negative over next 4 quarters
Breaks if: Dividend per share falls below $0.57 in 2026-Q1
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
This investment represents a cyclical play within the industrials sector. The current thesis state is weakened, as recent financial performance has declined compared to peers, indicating potential struggles ahead.
The market currently prices OSK as expensive relative to its peers, with a premium of 0.8. However, the expectations gap suggests that the market is not fully accounting for the fragility in earnings quality and operational execution.
Fundamentals may remain neutral in the near term due to ongoing operational headwinds, particularly in the ramp-up of Next Generation Delivery Vehicle production. The management's focus on maintaining dividend payments shows commitment, but recent earnings surprises have trended down.
The thesis hinges on OSK's ability to improve operational execution and potentially raise guidance in upcoming quarters. Additionally, the performance of sector bellwethers like CAT, DE, and CNH will be crucial in determining the overall momentum for OSK.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Valuation rose by 10.0 points (from 15.5 to 25.5).
Yes, our read has weakened. The recent earnings beat was overshadowed by margin compression, impacting cash flow. Additionally, the company's financial performance fell from the robust half to the weak half of its sector. This change in standing is significant, as it indicates a decline in the reasons to own the stock.
as of 2026-09-09
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Continue to prioritize maintaining dividend payments to shareholders.
Breaks if: EPS falls below $10.9 in FY26
Breaks if: YoY revenue growth falls below ~9.7% in FY26
In the next 1 to 3 years, OSK faces challenges but has management priorities that could stabilize its position if executed well. Not investment advice.