Reading WNC? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track WNC free→Reading WNC? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track WNC free→NYSEIndustrialsFarm & Heavy Construction MachinerySnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
Recent financial performance is weak, and earnings quality cannot be assessed since the company was unprofitable over the past year. Management's recent track record has been fairly steady, but the capital stance is capital unfriendly, which adds to the elevated risk. The sector backdrop is a headwind, and compared with sector peers, WNC is trading at a typical valuation. Peer multiples imply a price about 88% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is cheap, value-trap risk, as it trades below peer multiples while recent financials are weak. This assessment is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 1 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $9.31. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $9.48 WNC trades at 0× p/s, below its 2× p/s peer median. Our $67 fair value sits above the price; low confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 86% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about -14%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
TTM earnings are negative, so the read leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods rather than P/E. This is a data condition, not a forward call.
No fragility gates fired.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Industrials names rated weak grew net income 58% of the time over the next year (vs 62% for the rest of the cohort, n=3678).
Over the trailing year it converted 0.34x of net income into operating cash flow.
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, Fed net liquidity, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates.
4 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by legal/regulatory items. Historically, Industrials names rated neutral grew net income 59% of the time over the next year (vs 60% for the rest of the cohort, n=1113).
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $-0.31 → $-0.44 (-43.8% / 30d). 0 raised, 2 cut, 1 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 1 maintained. 0% of analysts rate Buy.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Met or beat guidance 0% of the last 1 guided quarters · -152.6% avg surprise
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$205.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$518.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $4,380.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Retail sales data can change how much Wabash National sells. Strong sales may mean better business.
Confirms one read:Retail sales report shows growth above 1% month over month.
Confirms the other:Retail sales report shows a decline or growth below 0% month over month.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for WNC yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On May 1, 2026, Wabash National Corporation (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing its financial results for the quarter ended March 31, 2026. A copy of the Company’s press release is furnished herewith as Exhibit 99.1 and is incorporated herein by reference. The press release and a teleconference visual presentation are also available on the Company's Investor Relations website at ir.onewabash.com.
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
TTM earnings are negative. P/E-based methods drop out and the estimate leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods. A data condition, not a forward call.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Construction Machinery & Heavy Transportation Equipment.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
WNC WABASH NATIONAL CORPORATION | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 50 of 100 | inexpensive | elevated |
CAT Caterpillar Inc. | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 52 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
CMI Cummins | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 45 of 100 | full | moderate |
PCAR Paccar | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 41 of 100 | fair | low |
WAB Wabtec | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 69 of 100 | full | low |
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLI
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
The company guides its revenue for Q2 2026 to be between $380 million and $400 million.
The company expects non-GAAP adjusted EPS for Q2 2026 to be between $(0.40) and $(0.60).
The company plans to idle facilities in Minnesota and Indiana, reducing jobs by 270 employees.
Why it matters: FOMC decisions can change interest rates. This affects the economy. It also impacts Wabash National's financing and sales.
Confirms one read:FOMC raises interest rates. This shows the economy is strong.
Confirms the other:FOMC lowers interest rates. This shows the economy is weak.
Why it matters: The earnings report will show if Wabash National can improve its financial performance. Investors will look for signs of recovery.
Confirms one read:Earnings report shows revenue growth is back above 5% from last year.
Confirms the other:Earnings report shows revenue growth declining or remaining below 5% year over year.
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On April 8, 2026, Wabash National Corporation (the “Company”) announced that Michael N. Pettit will transition from his role as Senior Vice President, Chief Growth Officer effective on April 8, 2026 (the “Transition Date”). Mr. Pettit will remain employed by the Company in a non-executive consulting and transition capacity as Senior Advisor, to ens…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On February 4, 2026, Wabash National Corporation (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing its financial results for the year and quarter ended December 31, 2025. A copy of the Company’s press release is furnished herewith as Exhibit 99.1 and is incorporated herein by reference. The press release and a teleconference visual presentation are also available on the Company’s Investor Relations website at ir.onewabash.com.
Forward-Looking Statements This Current Report on Form 8-K (“Current Report”) contains certain forward-looking statements as defined by the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Forward-looking statements convey the Company’s current expectations or forecasts of future events. All statements contained in this Current Report other than statements of historical fact are forward-looking statements. These forward-looking statements include, among other things, all statements regarding…
Costs Associated with Exit or Disposal Activities. On January 5, 2026, Wabash National Corporation (the “Company”) announced and initiated a plan to idle its facilities in Little Falls, Minnesota and in Goshen, Indiana. The plan includes job reductions of approximately 3 salaried and 53 hourly employees and 21 salaried and 193 hourly employees, respectively, and is expected to be substantially complete by the end of Q2 2026. The total charges associated with this action are expected to be bet…