Reading TH? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track TH free→Reading TH? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track TH free→NASDAQIndustrialsSpecialty Business ServicesSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
Recent financial performance is weak, and management's recent track record has been unsteady, with frequent disruptive corporate changes. The company was unprofitable over the past year, so its earnings quality can't be assessed. Peer multiples imply a price about 278% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is rich. The outlook hinges on whether TH cuts guidance on the next call, which would be a meaningful negative. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 3 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $19.02. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $19, TH's earnings are too small for P/E to mean much; on sales it trades at 5× p/s (3.8× the 1× p/s peer median). At a normal multiple the price implies ~278% near-term growth vs our ~-4% forecast. That gap is an optionality premium a financial-multiple model can't price — our $5.06 fair value covers only the as-is business, low confidence. Analysts: $11–$22. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 278% near-term growth, well above our forecast of about -4%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
TTM earnings are negative, so the read leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods rather than P/E. This is a data condition, not a forward call.
Only expensive valuation — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack. Regime (Mania) does not concentrate fragility.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Industrials names rated weak grew net income 58% of the time over the next year (vs 62% for the rest of the cohort, n=3678).
Over the trailing year it converted -1.77x of net income into operating cash flow.
Not enough signal yet.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the broad stock market, the US dollar, long-term interest rates, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, Fed net liquidity.
9 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Industrials names rated volatile grew net income 59% of the time over the next year (vs 59% for the rest of the cohort, n=840).
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $-0.07 → $-0.10 (-28.7% / 30d). 1 raised, 0 cut, 4 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 75% of analysts rate Buy.
1 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 26.7% above current price.
0 positive, 0 negative / 30d.
Transition story with positive analyst positioning (often a turnaround setup).
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$177.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$371.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $3,195.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: If revenue growth in the industrial sector speeds up, it could benefit Target's performance.
Confirms:Sector revenue growth is speeding up again. It is moving back toward highs above 7%.
Disproves:Sector revenue growth is slowing down. It is now below 5%.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for TH yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On May 11, 2026, Target Hospitality Corp. (the “ Company ”) issued a press release announcing its first quarter 2026 financial results. A copy of the Company’s May 11, 2026, press release is furnished herewith as Exhibit 99.1 and is incorporated herein by reference. The Company’s accompanying investor presentation will be posted on the “Investors” section of the Company’s website (www.targethospitality.com). The Company’s management will hold a…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
TTM earnings are negative. P/E-based methods drop out and the estimate leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods. A data condition, not a forward call.
$11.00 – $22.00 (median $19.50) · 4 analysts · as of 2026-06-01
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Looks more expensive than peers.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Diversified Support Services.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
TH Target Hospitality Corp. | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 22 of 100 | expensive | elevated |
CTAS Cintas | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 82 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
CPRT Copart | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 87 of 100 | fair | elevated |
RBA RB Global | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 71 of 100 | full | moderate |
ULS UL Solutions | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 90 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLI
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Target Hospitality aims to achieve total revenue between $370 and $380 million for the fiscal year 2026.
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Revenue was $72.781M in 2026-Q1, down from $89.777M in 2025-Q4. Despite the decline, management has increased its revenue guidance for 2026, indicating a focus on growth. However, the trajectory shows limited progress toward the higher target.
“The company is increasing its 2026 outlook to: Full Year 2026 Financial Outlook: Total revenue between $370 and $380 million.”
“Full Year 2026 Financial Outlook: Total revenue between $360 and $370 million.”
Target Hospitality plans to allocate capital expenditures between $460 and $480 million for the fiscal year 2026.
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. The company has increased its capex guidance from $220-$240M to $460-$480M for 2026. This significant increase indicates a strategic focus on capital allocation, but the financials do not yet show the impact of this planned expenditure.
“Total Capital Expenditures between $460 and $480 million, excluding acquisitions.”
Target Hospitality aims to achieve an Adjusted EBITDA between $75 and $85 million for the fiscal year 2026.
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. The company has increased its Adjusted EBITDA guidance from $70-$80M to $75-$85M for 2026. Despite the negative net income of -$12.919M in 2026-Q1, management remains focused on achieving this EBITDA target, indicating a growth priority.
“Total Adjusted EBITDA between $75 and $85 million.”
Other Events. Underwriting Agreement On May 28, 2026, Target Hospitality Corp. (the “Company”) entered into an underwriting agreement (the “Underwriting Agreement”) with Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC and Deutsche Bank Securities Inc., as representatives of the several underwriters named therein (collectively, the “Underwriters”) and Arrow Holdings S.à r.l. and MFA Global S.à r.l. (collectively, the “Selling Stockholders”), entities controlled by TDR Capital LLP, acting in its capacity as investmen…
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On May 5, 2026, the Board of Directors (the “ Board ”) of Target Hospitality Corp. (the “ Company ”) appointed Paul Hohnsbeen, age 70, to serve as a member of the Board, effective immediately until his current term expires as of the date of the Company’s 2027 Annual Meeting of Stockholders. Mr. Hohnsbeen will serve as a member of the Nominating and…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. Public Offering On April 21, 2026, Target Hospitality Corp. (the “Company”) filed a preliminary prospectus supplement (the “Preliminary Prospectus Supplement”) to its shelf registration statement on Form S-3 (File No. 333-230795) pursuant to Rule 424(b)(7) under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended (the “Securities Act”), relating to an underwritten public offering of the Company’s common stock by certain of its stockholders. The Preliminary Pr…
Other Events. Underwriting Agreement On April 21, 2026, Target Hospitality Corp. (the “Company”) entered into an underwriting agreement (the “Underwriting Agreement”) with Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC and Deutsche Bank Securities Inc., as representatives of the several underwriters named therein (collectively, the “Underwriters”) and Arrow Holdings S.à r.l. and MFA Global S.à r.l. (collectively, the “Selling Stockholders”), entities controlled by TDR Capital LLP, acting in its capacity as investm…
“Total Capital Expenditures between $220 and $240 million, excluding acquisitions.”
“Adjusted EBITDA between $70 and $80 million.”