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Track CTAS free→Cintas (CTAS)
NASDAQIndustrialsSpecialty Business ServicesSnapshot 2026-06-16
Intact
$176.71+1.13%
Close 2026-06-16 · 1-day change
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
The bottom line
Recent financial performance is strong. Earnings quality is fragile, meaning profits lack cash support. Management's recent track record has been steady. Risk is moderate, and the sector backdrop is a headwind. Compared with sector peers, CTAS is above typical. Peer multiples imply a price about 76% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is rich. This is due to trading above peer multiples, and growth does not justify the price. Watch for guidance changes and sector trends from bellwethers like CPRT and RBA.
as of 2026-06-16
Quick facts
- Exchange
- NASDAQ
- Sector
- Industrials
- Industry
- Specialty Business Services
- Market cap
- $70.54B
- Employees
- 48,300
- IPO date
- 1994-01-12
- Next earnings
- 2026-07-16
Price
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Adjusted daily closes (split & dividend). Scroll over the chart to zoom; click a range to reset.
EarningsMaterial event
What's priced in
(what the market already expects)What it's worth (estimated)
A consensus fair price across 7 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $176.71. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
12-month· primaryexpensive
$100.58consensus
Range $81.91 – $104.13
vs price: +76% above
Method agreement — · 7 methods
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
3-yearfull
$137.85consensus
Range $117.47 – $157.09
vs price: +28% above
Method agreement — · 6 methods
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
5-yearfair
How much to trust our fair value
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
Durable premiummedium confidence
At $175 the market pays 37× p/e — above the 21× p/e peer median but in line with its own 38× history. That premium reflects a durable franchise our peer-anchored $100 fair value understates; treat the 'expensive vs peers' read with medium confidence. Not investment advice.
Multiple (P/E)
36.9x
peer 21.1x · own history 37.6x
Premium
1.7x peer
1.0x its own history
Growth the price needs
74%
our forecast 13%
Our fair value
$100.21
range $81.83 – $103.75
How this stock is priced
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
expensiverich12-month view
What's priced inUnjustified
The market is pricing in roughly 74% near-term growth, well above our forecast of about 13%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Elevated fragilityrisk posture, not a price call
Flags: expensive valuation, weak execution quality.
Historical context
For similar setups historically (n=2,301): about 43% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 77% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
How strong is the business
(quality & execution)Factor signals
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Recent financial performance
strongOperating income rose in 3 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Industrials names rated strong grew net income 69% of the time over the next year (vs 58% for the rest of the cohort, n=3696).
83rd pctl · Industrials
Earnings quality
fragileOver the trailing year it converted 1.14x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Industrials names rated fragile grew net income 56% of the time over the next year (vs 60% for the rest of the cohort, n=3333).
28th pctl · Industrials
Macro sensitivity
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
- the broad stock market: This stock moves with the broad market (high beta).
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity, the US dollar.
Management & capital allocation
neutralEarnings setup & market context
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
Earnings setup · pre-print positioning
forward-looking
Strongly bullish10 analysts, 43% Buyfor period ending 2026-08-31
Why this setup
Consensus revisions
EPS estimate $1.32 → $1.32 (+0.2% / 30d). 5 raised, 1 cut, 10 covering analysts.
Rating actions
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 43% of analysts rate Buy.
Material events
1 positive, 0 negative / 30d. See F4 management tile for the event list.
Market and fundamentals agree. Analysts are positioned bullishly on a fundamentally strong name.
Sector context
Intermediate · WeeklySector phase: is in (~3.2 years in phase).
Management scorecard
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
Overall: strong
- Capital allocation
- strong
- Earnings discipline
- strong
- Margin discipline
- strong
- Balance sheet
- weak
- Guidance credibility
- neutral
How bumpy is the path
(risk while you hold it)Risk: how this stock moves
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
Intermediate · WeeklyLong-term · 1–3 yr
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$95.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$212.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $2,742.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
moderateas of 2026-06-16
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
What would change the read
(catalysts & re-read triggers)What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Short-term · Daily
- No material changes since the prior snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
What to watch next
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Intermediate · Weekly
- UpsideHigh confidenceMonthsactive 4d
Watch for the UniFirst deal to finish
Why it matters: Finishing the UniFirst deal could help Cintas offer better services and grow.
What confirms / what disproves
Confirms:The deal will close in the second half of 2026 after getting all approvals.
Disproves:The deal may not close. This could be due to regulatory issues or shareholder worries.
Material eventSource dated 2026-06-12
News catalysts
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
- 2026-06-125d agoInvesting.com
Cintas's acquisition enhances growth potential and market position.
Strongly reinforcesUnconfirmed report
This sector is also watching
- Watch for impacts from upcoming FOMC decisions
- Watch for revenue growth speeding up in Industrials
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Intermediate · Weekly
Upside triggers
- If sector bellwethers like CPRT, RBA, and ULS keep beating earnings and guiding higher, the Industrials sector momentum should keep lifting CTAS and other Industrials names. Worth watching these names for early signals.
- If the Fed starts cutting rates from the current 3.62%, that would be a tailwind for CTAS and other Industrials names, since rate-sensitive parts of the market tend to rally when the Fed eases.
Downside triggers
- If CTAS reverses and cuts guidance after recently raising (RAISED as of 2026-03-25), that's the worst kind of move: a credibility hit on top of the lower number. Stocks usually get punished disproportionately for this.
- If sector bellwethers like CPRT, RBA, and ULS start missing or guiding lower, the Industrials tailwind helping CTAS and other Industrials names could fade. Watch these names for early warning.
- If GDP growth slows materially from the current 2.6% (say, below 2%), it hits CTAS and other Industrials names harder than the average stock, since the sector is growth-sensitive.
Recent events
(material 8-K / filing activity)Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-06-125d agoItem 8.01
Other Events. As previously disclosed, on March 10, 2026, Cintas Corporation, a Washington corporation (“Cintas”), entered into an Agreement and Plan of Merger (the “Merger Agreement”) with (i) UniFirst Corporation, a Massachusetts corporation (“UniFirst”), (ii) Bruin Merger Sub I, Inc., a Delaware corporation and a wholly owned subsidiary of Cintas (“Merger Sub Inc.”), and (iii) Bruin Merger Sub II, LLC, a Delaware limited liability company and a wholly owned subsidiary of Cintas (“Merger Su…
M&A activitypositive
Score history
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
+2.1 vs last weeklatest as of 2026-06-17
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.