Reading KBR? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track KBR free→Reading KBR? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track KBR free→NYSEIndustrialsEngineering & ConstructionSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is neutral, and earnings quality is fragile, reported profits aren't backed by cash. Management's recent track record has been steady, but risk is elevated, and the sector backdrop is a headwind. Peer multiples imply a price about 57% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is cheap, value-trap risk, as it trades below peer multiples while recent financials are weak. If KBR cuts guidance on the next call, that could be a meaningful negative. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 7 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $35.05. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $35 KBR trades at 9× p/e, below its 21× p/e peer median. Our $82 fair value sits above the price; medium confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 57% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about -2%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only weak execution quality — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack. Regime (Mania) does not concentrate fragility.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 0 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Industrials names rated neutral grew net income 57% of the time over the next year (vs 64% for the rest of the cohort, n=4882).
Over the trailing year it converted 1.09x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Industrials names rated fragile grew net income 56% of the time over the next year (vs 60% for the rest of the cohort, n=3333).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, Fed net liquidity, long-term interest rates.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.93 → $0.90 (-2.5% / 30d). 1 raised, 5 cut, 8 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 1 maintained. 50% of analysts rate Buy.
1 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 12.9% above current price.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$144.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$340.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $4,273.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: More cash from operations shows KBR is improving its financial strength. It can support growth and dividends.
Confirms:KBR reports cash from operating activities rising by more than 10% in the next quarter.
Disproves:Cash from operating activities declines or grows less than 5% in the next quarter.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
Advances: Maintain dividend per share at $0.165
KBR wins a significant contract, enhancing cash flow.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On May 5, 2026, KBR, Inc. issued a press release titled, “KBR Reports First Quarter Fiscal 2026 Results.” The full text of the press release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1.
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Cheaper than its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Diversified Support Services.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
KBR KBR, Inc. | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 95 of 100 | inexpensive | elevated |
CTAS Cintas | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 82 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
CPRT Copart | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 87 of 100 | fair | elevated |
RBA RB Global | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 71 of 100 | full | moderate |
ULS UL Solutions | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 90 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
1 material management or governance event in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Industrials names rated stable grew net income 60% of the time over the next year (vs 59% for the rest of the cohort, n=792).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLI
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Continue to maintain the dividend per share at $0.165 as a capital allocation priority.
Focus on increasing cash from operating activities to support financial flexibility.
Why it matters: A larger revenue drop would indicate deeper issues in KBR's core markets, affecting future growth.
Confirms:Q2 revenues decline year over year worse than -5%.
Disproves:Q2 revenues decline year over year better than -5%.
Why it matters: Keeping the dividend shows financial stability and care for shareholders. A cut could worry about cash flow.
Confirms one read:Dividend per share remains at $0.165.
Confirms the other:Dividend per share is reduced below $0.165.
Why it matters: Large contract wins would boost KBR's backlog and signal strong demand in its sectors. This could improve investor sentiment.
Confirms:New contracts worth over $500 million were announced.
Disproves:No significant contract awards over $500 million in the next quarter.
Why it matters: A better margin means lower costs and better operations. This helps gain investor trust.
Confirms:Q2 adjusted EBITDA margin is more than 13.1%.
Disproves:Q2 adjusted EBITDA margin is less than 13.1%.
Why it matters: More cash flow from operations shows better financial health. This may help keep dividends stable.
Confirms:Cash flows from ongoing operations are over $110 million.
Disproves:Operating cash flows drop below $110 million.
Why it matters: Higher cash flow shows KBR's ability to manage costs and invest in growth.
Confirms:Cash flow from operations is higher than last quarter.
Disproves:Cash flow from operations is lower than last quarter.
Why it matters: If the industrial sector's revenue growth speeds up, it could benefit KBR's performance. Slower growth may hurt.
Confirms one read:Sector revenue growth jumps back above 8% year over year in the next quarter.
Confirms the other:Sector revenue growth remains below 6% year over year in the next quarter.
Why it matters: A steady dividend shows good financial health. A cut may worry investors.
Confirms:KBR announces the dividend remains at $0.165 per share in the next quarterly update.
Disproves:KBR reduces the dividend below $0.165 per share in the next quarterly update.
Why it matters: The overall health of the Industrials sector affects KBR's performance. Slowing growth could impact KBR's results.
Confirms:Sector revenue growth speeds up again, supporting KBR's outlook.
Disproves:Sector revenue growth keeps slowing down, showing wider industry problems.
Why it matters: A bigger backlog shows strong future sales and demand for KBR's services.
Confirms:Backlog and options grow to over $23.5 billion.
Disproves:Backlog and options decline or stay below $23.2 billion.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On February 26, 2026, KBR, Inc. issued a press release titled, “KBR Reports Fourth Quarter and Fiscal 2025 Results.” The full text of the press release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1.
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. (c) Appointment of Officers. As previously disclosed, Shad E. Evans will assume the position of Chief Financial Officer (“CFO”) of KBR, Inc. (“KBR”), effective January 5, 2026. In connection with Mr. Evans’ appointment as CFO, on October 22, 2025, Mr. Evans entered into a severance and change-in-control agreement (the “Agreement”), a form of which…