Reading CBZ? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track CBZ free→Reading CBZ? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track CBZ free→NYSEIndustrialsSpecialty Business ServicesSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
Recent financial performance is neutral, and earnings quality is mixed. Management's recent track record has been steady, and it has a capital-friendly stance. Risk is high, and the sector backdrop is a headwind, which may impact performance compared with sector peers, where it is typical. Peer multiples imply a price about 57% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is cheap, quality intact. This assessment is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 7 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $34.07. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $34 CBZ trades at 9× p/e, below its 21× p/e peer median. Our $79 fair value sits above the price; low confidence. Analysts: $31–$42. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 57% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about 44%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
No fragility gates fired.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 0 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Industrials names rated neutral grew net income 57% of the time over the next year (vs 64% for the rest of the cohort, n=4882).
Over the trailing year it converted 1.67x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Industrials names rated neutral grew net income 57% of the time over the next year (vs 60% for the rest of the cohort, n=4440).
Not enough signal yet.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, the broad stock market, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity, real (inflation-adjusted) rates.
4 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by capital-allocation actions. Historically, Industrials names rated stable grew net income 60% of the time over the next year (vs 59% for the rest of the cohort, n=792).
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.82 → $0.80 (-1.7% / 30d). 1 raised, 2 cut, 5 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 60% of analysts rate Buy.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$209.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$547.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $6,769.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: The earnings report will provide insights into CBIZ's financial health and performance trends.
Confirms one read:Earnings report shows revenue growth above what analysts expected. This shows strong performance.
Confirms the other:Earnings report shows revenue growth below what analysts expected. This suggests weak performance.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for CBZ yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition On April 29, 2026, CBIZ, Inc. (the "Company") issued a press release announcing its financial results for the three months ended March 31, 2026. A copy of the press release is furnished herewith as Exhibit 99.1. The exhibit contains, and may implicate, forward-looking statements regarding the Company and include cautionary statements identified important factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those anticipated.
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
$31.00 – $42.00 (median $37.00) · 3 analysts · as of 2026-05-01
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2024-Q3, 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Diversified Support Services.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
CBZ CBIZ, Inc. | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 53 of 100 | inexpensive | high |
CTAS Cintas | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 82 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
CPRT Copart | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 87 of 100 | fair | elevated |
RBA RB Global | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 71 of 100 | full | moderate |
ULS UL Solutions | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 90 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLI
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Management has guided for total revenue between $2.8 billion and $2.9 billion for the fiscal year 2026.
Management has set a free cash flow target between $270 million and $290 million for the fiscal year 2026.
The Board authorized the continuation of the Share Repurchase Program, allowing for the purchase of up to 5 million shares.
Why it matters: If sector revenue growth picks up, it could benefit CBIZ and its peers in the industrials sector.
Confirms:Sector revenue growth is speeding up again. This shows stronger demand.
Disproves:Sector revenue growth keeps slowing down. This shows ongoing challenges.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition On February 25, 2026 , CBIZ, Inc. (the "Company") issued a press release announcing its financial results for the three and twelve months ended December 31, 2025. A copy of the press release is furnished herewith as Exhibit 99.1. The exhibit contains, and may implicate, forward-looking statements regarding the Company and include cautionary statements identified important factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those anti…
Other Events. On February 11, 2026, the Board of Directors (the “Board”) of CBIZ, Inc. (the “Company”) authorized the continuation of the Company’s Share Repurchase Program, which has been authorized annually for more than twenty years. Pursuant to the Board’s authorization, the number of shares of common stock available to be purchased by the Company is 5 million shares, and the Share Repurchase Program expires March 31, 2027. The Share Repurchase Program supersedes and replaces the repurcha…
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On January 14, 2026, CBIZ, Inc. (the “Company”) announced that Mr. Chris Spurio will no longer serve as President, Financial Services effective January 31, 2026. It is anticipated that Mr. Spurio will serve as a consultant to the Company until December 31, 2026. SIGNATURES Pursuant to the requirements of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, the reg…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition On October 29, 2025, CBIZ, Inc. (the "Company") issued a press release announcing its financial results for the three and nine months ended September 30, 2025. A copy of the press release is furnished herewith as Exhibit 99.1. The exhibit contains, and may implicate, forward-looking statements regarding the Company and include cautionary statements identified important factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those anticip…