Reading SAIC? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track SAIC free→Reading SAIC? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track SAIC free→NASDAQIndustrialsInformation Technology ServicesSnapshot 2026-06-15
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is strong, but management's recent track record has been unsteady, with frequent disruptive corporate changes. Earnings quality is mixed, and risk is elevated, while the sector backdrop is a headwind. Peer multiples imply a price about 56% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is cheap, quality intact. The valuation is supported by the fact that it trades below peer multiples, and the recent financials and earnings quality are not flashing deterioration. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 7 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $109.39. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $109 SAIC trades at 9× p/e, below its 21× p/e peer median. Our $249 fair value sits above the price; low confidence. Analysts: $95–$137. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 56% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about -5%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
No fragility gates fired.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Industrials names rated strong grew net income 69% of the time over the next year (vs 58% for the rest of the cohort, n=3696).
Over the trailing year it converted 1.57x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Industrials names rated neutral grew net income 57% of the time over the next year (vs 60% for the rest of the cohort, n=4440).
Not enough signal yet.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the broad stock market, long-term interest rates, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, the US dollar, Fed net liquidity.
10 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Industrials names rated volatile grew net income 59% of the time over the next year (vs 59% for the rest of the cohort, n=840).
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $2.30 → $2.29 (-0.4% / 30d). 1 raised, 4 cut, 9 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 5 maintained. 18% of analysts rate Buy.
4 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 1.2% above current price.
1 positive, 0 negative / 30d. See F4 management tile for the event list.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$130.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$300.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $3,133.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-15
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Keeping the dividend at $0.37 per share shows strong finances and care for shareholders.
Confirms:The company confirms the dividend payment of $0.37 per share on July 24, 2026.
Disproves:The company plans to cut or stop the dividend payment.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for SAIC yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition On June 1, 2026, Science Applications International Corporation issued a press release announcing its financial results for the first fiscal quarter ended May 1, 2026. A copy of the press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this report. The Company’s management will discuss operations and financial results in an earnings conference call beginning at 10:00 a.m. Eastern time on June 1, 2026. A live audio broadcast of the conference call along wi…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
$95.00 – $137.00 (median $107.50) · 4 analysts · as of 2026-06-11
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Cheaper than its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2026-Q1, 2026-Q2, 2026-Q3, 2027-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Diversified Support Services.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
SAIC Science Applications Intl Corp | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 100 of 100 | inexpensive | elevated |
CTAS Cintas | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 83 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
CPRT Copart | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 87 of 100 | fair | elevated |
RBA RB Global | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 71 of 100 | full | moderate |
ULS UL Solutions | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 80 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
via XLI
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Continue to maintain the dividend at $0.37 per share as part of capital allocation strategy.
Target to achieve free cash flow greater than $600 million for fiscal year 2027.
Reiterate revenue guidance for fiscal year 2027 between $7.0B and $7.2B.
Why it matters: If sector revenue growth picks up, it could benefit SAIC's performance.
Confirms:Sector revenue growth exceeds 10% year over year.
Disproves:Sector revenue growth remains below 5% year over year.
Why it matters: Achieving this target shows strong cash generation, vital for growth and dividends.
Confirms:Free cash flow reported above $600 million for fiscal year 2027.
Disproves:Free cash flow reported below $600 million for fiscal year 2027.
Why it matters: The dividend shows that the company wants to give cash back to shareholders.
Confirms:The dividend is paid as scheduled without any cuts or changes.
Disproves:The company says it will cut or stop the dividend.
Why it matters: The company has mixed signals on revenue guidance. Confirmation is key for investor confidence.
Confirms one read:Management confirms revenue guidance of $7.0B - $7.2B for fiscal year 2027.
Confirms the other:Management revises revenue guidance down from $7.0B - $7.2B.
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers . On June 1, 2026, Science Applications International Corporation (the “Company”) announced that in connection with an internal reorganization, Srinivas Attili, Executive Vice President, Civilian Business Group, stepped down from his role effective May 29, 2026 and will depart from the Company on or about June 12, 2026. Following his departure from…
Other Events On May 28, 2026, the Company’s Board of Directors declared a cash dividend of $0.37 per share of the Company’s common stock payable on July 24, 2026 to stockholders of record on July 10, 2026. A copy of the Company’s press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K and is incorporated herein by reference.
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers . On April 9, 2026, Science Applications International Corporation (the “Company”) announced that Paul Eremenko and Admiral Michael Rogers, USN Retired, were appointed as a members of the Board of Directors of the Company (the “Board”) for an initial term beginning on April 8, 2026 (the “Effective Date”) and expiring at the Company’s 2026 annual mee…
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers . On April 9, 2026, Science Applications International Corporation (the “Company”) announced that Paul Eremenko and Admiral Michael Rogers, USN Retired, were appointed as a members of the Board of Directors of the Company (the “Board”) for an initial term beginning on April 8, 2026 (the “Effective Date”) and expiring at the Company’s 2026 annual mee…