Science Applications Intl Corp (SAIC)

NASDAQIndustrialsInformation Technology ServicesSnapshot 2026-10-23

$145.73+1.53%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Science Applications Intl Corp’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

+0.0%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

11.48 → 11.49 EPS · FY ending Jan 30, 2028 · 6 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 24, 2026 to Oct 24, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 6 to 6; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
FY 2027 · Q3
Revenue	—	1.82B
EPS	—	2.348
FY 2027 · Annual
Revenue	—	7.3B
EPS	—	10.818
Free cash flow	Over $600M	—
Operating cash flow	Over $635M	—
FY 2028 · Annual
Revenue	—	7.4B
EPS	—	11.486

What the Thesis Depends On

4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Maintain dividend at $0.37 per share	The dividend is stable at $0.37 per share.	Intact	Dividend per share falls below $0.37	Dividend per share: $0.37 per share FY2027-Q2; GAAP. Published target: 0.37 USD_PER_SHARE. The stored target says 2026-Q2; this source reports FY2027-Q2. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Source published Aug 31, 20260.37 USD/share · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2027-Q2 · Period ending Jul 31, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 1de99fe3-20c8-4e08-aa17-aff3d26a5d03. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 4 of last 4 quarters. Dividend per share has consistently been $0.37 from 2026-Q1 through 2027-Q2. The Board has declared quarterly dividends at this level each quarter, demonstrating consistent delivery on this capital allocation priority. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Free cash flow above $600 million in fiscal 2027	Free cash flow is targeted above $600 million, supporting capital returns.	Intact	Free cash flow falls below $600 million in fiscal 2027	Free cash flow: $131M FY2027-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >600 USD_MILLIONS. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 31, 2026131,000,000 USD · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2027-Q2 · Period ending Jul 31, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2027-Q2. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Stable and effective management team	A supporting condition in Science Applications Intl Corp's published investment case. The stated target is No major executive departures or disruptions.	Intact	Significant executive departures or leadership instability	No major departures; 1 external CFO hire External CFO hire announced Oct 13. No other executive departures or leadership instability events detected in recent filings or news. Context reviewed through Oct 23, 2026Last status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Fiscal year 2027 revenue between $7.0B and $7.2B	A primary condition in Science Applications Intl Corp's published investment case. The stated target is >=7.0 USD_BILLIONS.	Intact	Fiscal year 2027 revenue falls below $7.0 billion	Revenue: $1.88B FY2027-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=7.0 USD_BILLIONS. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 31, 20261,880,000,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2027-Q2 · Period ending Jul 31, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 1de99fe3-20c8-4e08-aa17-aff3d26a5d03. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-01-30 · fmp

FY2028 EPS$11.49

$11.00 → $11.49 · observed estimates

FY2028 revenue$7.40B

$7.27B → $7.40B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2028 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$11.00	$7,271,129,144	6 / 7
2026-07-25	$11.00	$7,271,129,144	6 / 7
2026-07-26	$11.00	$7,271,129,144	6 / 7
2026-07-27	$11.00	$7,271,129,144	6 / 7
2026-07-28	$11.00	$7,271,129,144	6 / 7
2026-07-29	$11.00	$7,271,129,144	6 / 7
2026-07-30	$11.00	$7,271,129,144	6 / 7
2026-07-31	$11.00	$7,271,129,144	6 / 7
2026-08-01	$11.00	$7,271,129,144	6 / 7
2026-08-02	$11.00	$7,271,129,144	6 / 7
2026-08-03	$11.00	$7,271,129,144	6 / 7
2026-08-04	$11.00	$7,271,129,144	6 / 7
2026-08-05	$11.00	$7,271,129,144	6 / 7
2026-08-06	$11.00	$7,271,129,144	6 / 7
2026-08-08	$11.00	$7,271,129,144	6 / 7
2026-08-09	$11.00	$7,271,129,144	6 / 7
2026-08-10	$11.00	$7,271,129,144	6 / 7
2026-08-12	$11.00	$7,271,129,144	6 / 7
2026-08-13	$11.00	$7,271,129,144	6 / 7
2026-08-14	$11.00	$7,271,129,144	6 / 7
2026-08-15	$11.00	$7,271,129,144	6 / 7
2026-08-16	$11.00	$7,271,129,144	6 / 7
2026-08-17	$11.00	$7,271,129,144	6 / 7
2026-08-18	$11.00	$7,271,129,144	6 / 7
2026-08-19	$11.00	$7,271,129,144	6 / 7
2026-08-20	$11.00	$7,271,129,989	6 / 7
2026-08-21	$11.00	$7,271,129,989	6 / 7
2026-08-22	$11.00	$7,271,129,989	6 / 7
2026-08-23	$11.00	$7,271,129,989	6 / 7
2026-08-24	$11.00	$7,271,129,989	6 / 7
2026-08-25	$11.00	$7,271,129,989	6 / 7
2026-08-26	$11.00	$7,271,129,989	6 / 7
2026-08-27	$11.00	$7,271,129,989	6 / 7
2026-08-28	$11.00	$7,271,129,989	6 / 7
2026-08-29	$11.00	$7,271,129,989	6 / 7
2026-08-30	$11.00	$7,271,129,989	6 / 7
2026-08-31	$11.00	$7,271,129,989	6 / 7
2026-09-01	$11.08	$7,314,576,650	6 / 7
2026-09-02	$11.31	$7,361,234,833	6 / 7
2026-09-03	$11.31	$7,361,234,833	6 / 7
2026-09-04	$11.31	$7,361,234,833	6 / 7
2026-09-05	$11.39	$7,378,475,850	6 / 7
2026-09-06	$11.39	$7,378,475,850	6 / 7
2026-09-07	$11.39	$7,378,475,850	6 / 7
2026-09-08	$11.39	$7,378,475,850	6 / 7
2026-09-09	$11.48	$7,397,157,294	6 / 7
2026-09-10	$11.48	$7,397,157,294	6 / 7
2026-09-11	$11.48	$7,397,157,294	6 / 7
2026-09-12	$11.48	$7,397,157,983	6 / 7
2026-09-13	$11.48	$7,397,159,794	6 / 7
2026-09-14	$11.48	$7,397,159,794	6 / 7
2026-09-15	$11.48	$7,397,159,794	6 / 7
2026-09-16	$11.48	$7,397,159,794	6 / 7
2026-09-17	$11.48	$7,397,159,106	6 / 7
2026-09-18	$11.48	$7,397,159,106	6 / 7
2026-09-19	$11.48	$7,397,159,106	6 / 7
2026-09-20	$11.48	$7,397,159,106	6 / 7
2026-09-21	$11.48	$7,397,159,106	6 / 7
2026-09-22	$11.48	$7,397,159,106	6 / 7
2026-09-23	$11.48	$7,397,159,106	6 / 7
2026-09-24	$11.48	$7,397,159,106	6 / 7
2026-09-25	$11.48	$7,397,159,106	6 / 7
2026-09-26	$11.48	$7,397,159,106	6 / 7
2026-09-27	$11.48	$7,397,159,106	6 / 7
2026-09-28	$11.48	$7,397,159,106	6 / 7
2026-09-29	$11.48	$7,397,159,106	6 / 7
2026-09-30	$11.48	$7,397,159,106	6 / 7
2026-10-01	$11.48	$7,397,159,106	6 / 7
2026-10-02	$11.48	$7,397,159,106	6 / 7
2026-10-03	$11.48	$7,397,159,106	6 / 7
2026-10-04	$11.48	$7,397,159,106	6 / 7
2026-10-05	$11.48	$7,397,159,106	6 / 7
2026-10-06	$11.48	$7,397,159,106	6 / 7
2026-10-07	$11.48	$7,397,159,106	6 / 7
2026-10-08	$11.48	$7,397,159,106	6 / 7
2026-10-09	$11.48	$7,397,159,106	6 / 7
2026-10-10	$11.48	$7,397,159,106	6 / 7
2026-10-11	$11.48	$7,397,159,106	6 / 7
2026-10-12	$11.48	$7,397,159,106	6 / 7
2026-10-13	$11.49	$7,398,328,550	6 / 7
2026-10-14	$11.49	$7,398,328,550	6 / 7
2026-10-15	$11.49	$7,398,328,550	6 / 7
2026-10-16	$11.49	$7,398,328,550	6 / 7
2026-10-17	$11.49	$7,398,328,550	6 / 7
2026-10-18	$11.49	$7,398,328,550	6 / 7
2026-10-19	$11.49	$7,398,328,550	6 / 7
2026-10-20	$11.49	$7,398,328,550	6 / 7
2026-10-21	$11.49	$7,398,328,550	6 / 7
2026-10-22	$11.49	$7,398,328,550	6 / 7
2026-10-23	$11.49	$7,398,328,550	6 / 7
2026-10-24	$11.49	$7,398,328,550	6 / 7

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	2	8	1
2026-06-01	2	8	1
2026-07-01	2	8	1
2026-08-01	2	8	1
2026-09-01	2	8	1
2026-10-01	2	8	1

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 2 Buy / Strong Buy · 8 Hold · 1 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades0 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 0 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

Individual price-target observations are unavailable.

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Maintain dividend at $0.37 per shareDividend per share: $0.37 per share
Free cash flow above $600 million in fiscal 2027Free cash flow: $131M
Fiscal year 2027 revenue between $7.0B and $7.2BRevenue: $1.88B

Next proof point

Dec 3, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.2%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-27.8%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Science Applications Intl Corp outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

SAIC is a government-services business with a value-oriented profile and recent operating momentum. Its long-term thesis is intact, though confidence is medium and management execution has been volatile.

What's priced into Science Applications Intl Corp

SAIC is tagged as cheap versus peers, while the overall priced-in assessment is justified and fragility is low. The expectations gap is slightly negative, so the evidence points to a modest gap rather than strongly favorable expectations.

What the fundamentals likely do

Recent financial performance is strong: revenue and adjusted operating margin improved across the reported comparison, and the company recently reported an earnings beat. Near term, momentum has weakened and a CFO transition adds uncertainty; free cash flow remains below management’s stated goal, while the sector backdrop is a headwind.

What Science Applications Intl Corp hinges on

The multi-year view depends on management sustaining growth and margin progress while moving free cash flow above its stated goal. A reversal of recently raised guidance would hurt credibility, while continued strong results and higher guidance from sector bellwethers could support the sector backdrop.