Reading CACI? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track CACI free→Reading CACI? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track CACI free→NYSEIndustrialsInformation Technology ServicesSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is strong, but earnings quality and management's track record are neutral. The sector backdrop is a headwind, although CACI is performing above typical compared to sector peers. Peer multiples imply a price about 6% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is fair. This assessment hinges on whether CACI maintains its guidance after recent adjustments, as a cut could significantly impact credibility. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 8 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $507.87. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $508 CACI trades at 17× p/e, below its 21× p/e peer median. Our $557 fair value sits above the price; high confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price sits about 9% below a flat-multiple fair value; not enough history to forecast a comparison. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only weak execution quality — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Industrials names rated strong grew net income 69% of the time over the next year (vs 58% for the rest of the cohort, n=3696).
Over the trailing year it converted 1.24x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Industrials names rated neutral grew net income 57% of the time over the next year (vs 60% for the rest of the cohort, n=4440).
Not enough signal yet.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the broad stock market, the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, Fed net liquidity, long-term interest rates.
7 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by capital-allocation actions. Historically, Industrials names rated neutral grew net income 59% of the time over the next year (vs 60% for the rest of the cohort, n=1113).
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $7.33 → $7.35 (+0.4% / 30d). 0 raised, 0 cut, 15 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 2 maintained. 75% of analysts rate Buy.
1 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 7.7% above current price.
0 positive, 0 negative / 30d.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$121.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$285.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $2,736.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Strong contract awards signal demand for CACI's services and support revenue growth.
Confirms:CACI reports contract awards above $2 billion in the fourth quarter.
Disproves:CACI reports contract awards below $1.5 billion in the fourth quarter.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for CACI yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
President, U.S. Operations — DeEtte Gray: Ms. DeEtte Gray is retiring from her role as President, U.S. Operations with an agreed transition period.
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Around its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1, 2026-Q2, 2026-Q3
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Diversified Support Services.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
CACI CACI International | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 85 of 100 | fair | moderate |
CTAS Cintas | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 83 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
CPRT Copart | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 87 of 100 | fair | elevated |
RBA RB Global | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 71 of 100 | full | moderate |
ULS UL Solutions | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 80 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLI
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Focus on increasing revenue growth through strategic initiatives and acquisitions.
Continue efforts to enhance operating income through efficiency improvements.
Aim to increase net income through strategic growth and operational efficiency.
Why it matters: Changes in leadership can affect strategy and execution. This matters for future results.
Confirms one read:New president announced with a strong track record in operations.
Confirms the other:Changes can lead to problems for management. They may also cause strategy issues.
Why it matters: New revenue guidance will show how the ARKA acquisition impacts future sales. This is key for growth.
Confirms:CACI raises fiscal year 2026 revenue guidance above $9,600 million.
Disproves:CACI keeps fiscal year 2026 revenue guidance below $9,500 million.
Why it matters: Changes in DSO can indicate how well CACI manages its receivables and cash flow.
Confirms one read:DSO is below 55 days. This shows better cash flow management.
Confirms the other:DSO is above 55 days. This suggests cash flow problems.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition On April 22, 2026 , CACI International Inc released its financial results for the third quarter fiscal year 2026 . A copy of the press release announcing the financial results as well as the schedule for a conference call and webcast on April 23, 2026 is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K.
Completion of Acquisition or Disposition of Assets. On March 9, 2026, CACI, Inc. - Federal (the “Purchaser”), a wholly owned subsidiary of the Company, completed the previously announced acquisition of all of the outstanding equity interests of ARKA Group, L.P. (the “Partnership”) pursuant to the terms of the Purchase Agreement and Plan of Merger, dated as of December 19, 2025 (the “Purchase Agreement”) by and among the Purchaser, the Company, solely as a guarantor, Spatium Merger Sub, LLC, a…
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. On March 12, 2026, CACI International Inc (“CACI”), the subsidiary guarantors named therein (the “Guarantors”) and U.S. Bank Trust Company, National Association, as trustee (the “Trustee”), entered into a second supplemental indenture (the “Second Supplemental Indenture”) to the indenture, dated as of June 2, 2025 (the “Base Indenture”), as supplemented by that first supplemental indenture (the “First Supplemental Indenture”), dated as of November 2…
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. On March 9, 2026, CACI International Inc (the “Company”) and certain of its subsidiaries entered into Amendment No. 1 (the “Amendment”) to that certain Credit Agreement, dated as of October 30, 2024 (as amended, the “Term Loan B Credit Agreement”), with the lenders party thereto and JPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A., as administrative agent. The Amendment provides for an additional $800 million tranche of incremental term loans (the “Incremental Term B-2 Lo…