Reading LDOS? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track LDOS free→Reading LDOS? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track LDOS free→NYSEIndustrialsInformation Technology ServicesSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is neutral, and management's recent track record has been unsteady, with frequent disruptive corporate changes. Earnings quality is neutral, and risk is elevated, while the sector backdrop is a headwind. Peer multiples imply a price about 47% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is cheap, quality intact. Key factors to watch include guidance changes and sector trends, particularly the performance of bellwethers like BR, CACI, and PSN. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 8 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $113.57. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $115 LDOS trades at 10× p/e, below its 21× p/e peer median. Our $220 fair value sits above the price; medium confidence. Analysts: $140–$215. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 48% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about 3%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only weak execution quality — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Industrials names rated neutral grew net income 57% of the time over the next year (vs 64% for the rest of the cohort, n=4882).
Over the trailing year it converted 1.41x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Industrials names rated neutral grew net income 57% of the time over the next year (vs 60% for the rest of the cohort, n=4440).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, Fed net liquidity, long-term interest rates.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $3.05 → $2.89 (-5.5% / 30d). 0 raised, 3 cut, 14 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 1 downgrade / 30d, 0 maintained. 50% of analysts rate Buy.
2 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 17.8% above current price.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$111.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$270.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $4,281.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Completing the Tender Offer shows Leidos can manage its debt effectively. This can improve cash flow and investor confidence.
Confirms:The Tender Offer must be completed by February 20, 2025.
Disproves:Tender Offer fails to complete by the expiration date.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for LDOS yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On May 5, 2026, Leidos Holdings, Inc. (the "Company") issued a press release announcing its financial results for the first fiscal quarter ended April 3, 2026. A copy of the press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this report. The Company’s management will discuss operations and financial results in an earnings conference call beginning at 8:00 a.m. eastern on May 5, 2026. A live audio broadcast of the conference call along with a supplemen…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
$140.00 – $215.00 (median $195.00) · 7 analysts · as of 2026-06-03
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Cheaper than its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Diversified Support Services.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
LDOS Leidos | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 98 of 100 | inexpensive | elevated |
CTAS Cintas | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 83 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
CPRT Copart | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 88 of 100 | fair | elevated |
RBA RB Global | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 71 of 100 | full | moderate |
ULS UL Solutions | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 82 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
15 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by capital-allocation actions. Historically, Industrials names rated volatile grew net income 59% of the time over the next year (vs 59% for the rest of the cohort, n=840).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLI
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Leidos aims to achieve double-digit revenue growth through strategic initiatives and acquisitions.
Leidos aims to increase cash flow from operations to support strategic investments and shareholder returns.
Leidos is forming a strategic joint venture to enhance its market position and capabilities.
Why it matters: Successful completion will show Leidos can manage its debt effectively. This impacts cash flow and investor confidence.
Confirms:Leidos completes the Tender Offer for its 3.625% Senior Notes due 2025 by February 20, 2025.
Disproves:The Tender Offer does not close by the deadline. This shows possible money problems.
Why it matters: Earnings results will show if Leidos is on track with its revenue growth and cash flow goals. This is critical for investor sentiment.
Confirms one read:Earnings report shows revenue growth exceeding 10% year over year.
Confirms the other:Earnings report shows revenue growth below 5% year over year.
Why it matters: More cash flow shows better efficiency. It also helps with growth plans.
Confirms:Cash flow from operations exceeds $450 million in Q2.
Disproves:Cash flow from operations is $450 million or lower in Q2.
Why it matters: A successful joint venture could drive growth and help meet revenue goals. Investors will look for updates on this effort.
Confirms:A signed agreement for a joint venture was announced.
Disproves:No updates or delays in forming the joint venture.
Why it matters: Increasing cash flow is key for funding operations and investments. It reflects financial health.
Confirms:Cash flow from operations increases by more than 15% in the next quarterly report.
Disproves:Cash flow from operations goes down or stays the same from last quarter.
Why it matters: New partnerships can boost growth and align with Leidos' goal of double-digit revenue growth.
Confirms:Leidos starts a new joint venture. It aims at specific growth markets.
Disproves:No new joint ventures announced by the next earnings call on July 28, 2026.
Why it matters: Progress in forming a strategic joint venture could support Leidos' growth goals. This is important as they aim for double-digit revenue growth.
Confirms:A new partnership or joint venture will be announced in the next quarter.
Disproves:No updates or progress reported on joint ventures in the next quarter.
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On May 1, 2026, at the Annual Meeting of Stockholders (the "Annual Meeting") of Leidos Holdings, Inc. (the "Company"), the Company's stockholders approved (i) the Company's 2026 Omnibus Incentive Plan (the "2026 Plan") and (ii) the Company's 2026 Employee Stock Purchase Plan (the "2026 ESPP"). The Company's Board of Directors (the "Board") previous…
Entry Into a Material Definitive Agreement. On April 14, 2026, Leidos, Inc. (“ Leidos Inc. ”), a Delaware corporation and a wholly-owned subsidiary of Leidos Holdings, Inc. (“ Leidos ”), entered into a Contribution and Equity Purchase Agreement (the “ Contribution Agreement ”), together with Leidos solely for certain limited purposes set forth therein, with certain affiliates of Altaris, LLC, a Delaware limited liability company (“ Altaris ,” and such affiliates, the “ AHP Entities ”), to for…
Completion of Acquisition or Disposition of Assets. On March 27, 2026, Leidos, Inc. (the “ Purchaser ”), a Delaware corporation and wholly-owned subsidiary of Leidos Holdings, Inc. (the “ Company ”), completed its acquisition of KENE Parent, Inc., a Delaware corporation (“ Entrust ”), pursuant to the terms of the previously announced Stock Purchase Agreement dated January 23, 2026 (the “ Purchase Agreement ”) by and among the Purchaser, KENE Holdings, L.P., a Delaware limited partnership (the…
of the Previous Form 8-K is incorporated into this