Reading AMTM? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track AMTM free→Reading AMTM? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track AMTM free→NYSEIndustrialsSpecialty Business ServicesSnapshot 2026-06-15
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is strong, and earnings quality is robust, cash backs up reported profits. Management's recent track record has been steady, but the capital stance is capital unfriendly. Risk is moderate, and the sector backdrop is a headwind, with AMTM trading above typical compared to sector peers. Peer multiples imply a price about 43% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is cheap, quality intact. This assessment is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 6 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $22.43. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $23 AMTM trades at 13× p/e, below its 21× p/e peer median. Our $39 fair value sits above the price; medium confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price sits about 43% below a flat-multiple fair value; not enough history to forecast a comparison. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
No fragility gates fired.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 3 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Industrials names rated strong grew net income 69% of the time over the next year (vs 58% for the rest of the cohort, n=3696).
Over the trailing year it converted 3.14x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Industrials names rated robust grew net income 64% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=3333).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.00 → $0.61. 1 raised, 3 cut, 9 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 1 maintained. 42% of analysts rate Buy.
Divergence: fundamentals are strong but estimates are being cut. Worth reading the recent material events.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$178.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$361.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $4,138.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Valuation rose by 12.4 points (from 69.8 to 82.2).
As of June 15, 2026, the valuation dimension rose. This change indicates that the stock's valuation has become more favorable relative to its peers. The overall context remains provisional, with the sector backdrop facing headwinds and the risk level categorized as moderate.
as of 2026-06-15
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: A revenue growth above 3% would show Amentum is on track to meet its full-year guidance. This is important for investor confidence.
Confirms:Q2 revenue growth exceeds 3% year-over-year.
Disproves:Q2 revenue growth is below 3% year-over-year.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for AMTM yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition On May 11, 2026, Amentum Holdings, Inc. (“Amentum”) released its financial results for the second quarter ended April 3, 2026. A copy of the press release announcing the financial results as well as the schedule for a conference call and webcast on May 12, 2026 is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K and incorporated herein by reference.
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Around its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1, 2026-Q2
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Diversified Support Services.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
AMTM Amentum | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 91 of 100 | inexpensive | moderate |
CTAS Cintas | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 83 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
CPRT Copart | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 88 of 100 | fair | elevated |
RBA RB Global | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 71 of 100 | full | moderate |
ULS UL Solutions | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 82 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
2 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by capital-allocation actions. Historically, Industrials names rated stable grew net income 60% of the time over the next year (vs 59% for the rest of the cohort, n=792).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
via XLI
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Focus on sustaining the company's revenue growth over the fiscal year.
Aim to improve operating income through strategic initiatives.
Focus on improving cash flow from operations to support financial stability.
Why it matters: Keeping cash flow above $200 million shows Amentum makes strong cash. This helps growth and debt.
Confirms:Cash flow from operations stays above $200 million for Q2.
Disproves:Cash flow from operations drops below $200 million for Q2.
Why it matters: If operating income goes up by over 10%, it shows good performance and cost control.
Confirms:Operating income goes up by more than 10% each year.
Disproves:Operating income goes up by less than 10% each year.
Why it matters: A backlog over $48 billion shows strong demand. This means good future revenue and growth.
Confirms:Total backlog exceeds $48 billion.
Disproves:Total backlog falls below $48 billion.
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. Amended Credit Agreement On April 24, 2026, Amentum Holdings, Inc., a Delaware corporation (“Amentum”), entered into the First Amendment (the “First Amendment”), dated as of such date, among Amentum, Amentum Services, Inc., a Delaware corporation (“Amentum Services”), Amentum Technology, Inc., a Tennessee corporation (“Amentum Technology”), the other loan parties party thereto, the lenders party thereto, the issuing banks party thereto and JPMorgan…
Creation of a Direct Financial Obligation or an Obligation under an Off-Balance Sheet Arrangement of a Registrant. The information in
Results of Operations and Financial Condition On February 9, 2026, Amentum Holdings, Inc. (“Amentum”) released its financial results for the first quarter ended January 2, 2026. A copy of the press release announcing the financial results as well as the schedule for a conference call and webcast on February 10, 2026 is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K and incorporated herein by reference.