Amentum (AMTM)
NYSEIndustrialsAerospace & DefenseSnapshot 2026-09-09
$19.31-4.12%
Close 2026-09-09 · 1-day change
NYSEIndustrialsAerospace & DefenseSnapshot 2026-09-09
Broken: Primary pillar broken — Maintain revenue near $14.3 billion in FY26: FY26 rev guide $13.88B vs $14.28B target (-2.8%).
Amentum improves profit with operating income rising to $151 million in Q2 2026. Cash from operations grew strongly to $225 million, supporting financial health. Revenue guidance is steady near $14.3 billion for FY26. The company has a robust quality score and stable management.
Revenue is slightly down year-over-year, showing challenges in growth. The recent earnings beat came with a guidance cut, signaling caution. The stock is under pressure with a 23.8% drawdown and elevated risk.
The price sits about 55% below our fair value near $47, reflecting a cautious market view. Analysts expect about 6% revenue growth, which aligns with the company's steady guidance but not strong expansion.
Breaks if: Cash from operations falls below $57 million in Q2 2026
Improve cash generation through disciplined working capital management and operational cash flow growth.
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
This is a turnaround investment with a focus on stabilizing and improving fundamentals. The current thesis state is weakened, as recent financial performance has declined relative to peers.
The market appears to price AMTM as cheap compared to peers, but there is an expectations gap indicating that the market anticipates some challenges ahead. The valuation reflects a premium compared to its industry, suggesting that investors are cautious but not overly pessimistic.
Management is on track with priorities such as maintaining revenue growth, enhancing operating income, and strengthening cash flow. However, the company remains loss-making, and there is a low probability of missing earnings expectations, though recent trends show a decline in earnings surprises.
The thesis hinges on the performance of sector bellwethers like SPCX, GE, and RTX. If these companies continue to perform well, it could provide a favorable backdrop for AMTM. Conversely, any negative guidance or performance from these peers could lead to further challenges for AMTM.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Confidence changed from 'medium' to 'high'.
Yes, our read has weakened. Recent financial performance dropped from the top half to the bottom half of its industry. This change indicates the reason to own it has weakened. Additionally, AMTM lowered its revenue guidance, which threatens its growth trajectory. The latest earnings beat and record margins do provide some support, but overall, the outlook has dimmed.
as of 2026-09-09
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Stated as a priority in 4 of last 4 quarters. Operating cash flow improved significantly from -$136M in 2026-Q1 to $146M in 2026-Q3, driven by strong cash earnings and disciplined working capital management. The trajectory shows substantial progress in strengthening cash flow.
“Net cash from operating activities was $146 million driven by strong cash earnings and disciplined working capital management.”
“Generated $225 million of net cash from operating activities driven by strong cash earnings and working capital management.”
“Used $136 million of net cash from operating activities impacted by collections timing and additional pay cycle.”
“Operating cash flow was solid and supported by disciplined working capital management.”
Breaks if: Operating income falls below $110 million in Q2 2026
Aim to improve operating income through strategic initiatives.
Breaks if: Revenue falls below $13.95 billion in FY26
Continue to grow revenues through new contract awards in key markets including nuclear energy, digital infrastructure, and defense.
Stated as a priority in 4 of last 4 quarters. Revenue grew from $3.24B in 2026-Q1 to $3.49B in 2026-Q3, with backlog increasing 8% from $44.6B in 2025-Q4 to $48.2B in 2026-Q3. Management consistently highlights new contract awards in nuclear energy, digital infrastructure, and defense, indicating delivery on growth trajectory.
“CEO: 'Strong year-to-date results allow us to increase guidance... robust business development indicators including key wins in global nuclear energy.'”
“CEO: 'Significant and growing opportunities across national security, nuclear energy, space, and critical digital infrastructure markets.'”
“CEO: 'Robust bookings across our accelerating growth markets reinforce the strength of our strategy.'”
“CEO: 'We remain well positioned to deliver on our fiscal year 2026 targets.'”
Over the next 1 to 3 years, AMTM's prospects depend on its ability to navigate sector dynamics and improve its fundamentals. Not investment advice.