Amentum (AMTM)

NYSEIndustrialsAerospace & DefenseSnapshot 2026-10-23

$21.76+2.21%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Amentum’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

Comparable estimates unavailable

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

A matching fiscal period and sufficient coverage are required.

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least five analysts and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
Quarter ending 2027-01-03
Revenue	—	3.32B
EPS	—	0.582
Annual ending 2027-10-03
Revenue	—	14.05B
EPS	—	2.64
Annual ending 2028-10-03
Revenue	—	14.49B
EPS	—	2.951

Management figures unavailable.

What the Thesis Depends On

Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Cash from operations strengthens to at least $225 million in Q2 2026	Cash from operations grew strongly to $225 million, supporting financial health.	Intact	Cash from operations falls below $57 million in Q2 2026	Cash from operations: $146M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >= $225 million. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 11, 2026146,000,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q3 · Period ending Jul 3, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q3. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 4 of last 4 quarters. Operating cash flow improved significantly from -$136M in 2026-Q1 to $146M in 2026-Q3, driven by strong cash earnings and disciplined working capital management. The trajectory shows substantial progress in strengthening cash flow. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Operating income improves to at least $151 million in Q2 2026	Amentum improves profit with operating income rising to $151 million in Q2 2026.	Under Pressure	Operating income falls below $110 million in Q2 2026	Operating income: $172M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >= $151 million. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 11, 2026172,000,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q3 · Period ending Jul 3, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: e5594469-b548-4b6a-ae5b-53597e947fef. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Maintain revenue near $14.3 billion in FY26	Revenue guidance is steady near $14.3 billion for FY26.	Under Pressure	Revenue falls below $13.95 billion in FY26	Revenue: $3.49B FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: ~$14.275 billion. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 11, 20263,490,000,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q3 · Period ending Jul 3, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: e5594469-b548-4b6a-ae5b-53597e947fef. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 4 of last 4 quarters. Revenue grew from $3.24B in 2026-Q1 to $3.49B in 2026-Q3, with backlog increasing 8% from $44.6B in 2025-Q4 to $48.2B in 2026-Q3. Management consistently highlights new contract awards in nuclear energy, digital infrastructure, and defense, indicating delivery on growth trajectory. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-10-03 · fmp

FY2028 EPS: comparable history unavailable.

FY2028 revenue$14.49B

$14.49B → $14.49B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2028 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-10-04	Unavailable	$14,485,931,038	4 / 10
2026-10-05	Unavailable	$14,485,931,038	4 / 10
2026-10-06	Unavailable	$14,485,931,038	4 / 10
2026-10-07	Unavailable	$14,485,931,038	4 / 10
2026-10-08	Unavailable	$14,485,931,038	4 / 10
2026-10-09	Unavailable	$14,485,931,038	4 / 10
2026-10-10	Unavailable	$14,485,931,038	4 / 10
2026-10-11	Unavailable	$14,485,931,038	4 / 10
2026-10-12	Unavailable	$14,485,931,038	4 / 10
2026-10-13	Unavailable	$14,485,931,038	4 / 10
2026-10-14	Unavailable	$14,485,931,038	4 / 10
2026-10-15	Unavailable	$14,485,931,038	4 / 10
2026-10-16	Unavailable	$14,485,931,038	4 / 10
2026-10-17	Unavailable	$14,485,931,038	4 / 10
2026-10-18	Unavailable	$14,485,931,038	4 / 10
2026-10-19	Unavailable	$14,485,931,038	4 / 10
2026-10-20	Unavailable	$14,485,931,038	4 / 10
2026-10-21	Unavailable	$14,485,931,038	4 / 10
2026-10-22	Unavailable	$14,485,931,038	4 / 10
2026-10-23	Unavailable	$14,485,931,038	4 / 10
2026-10-24	Unavailable	$14,485,931,038	4 / 10

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	5	6	1
2026-06-01	5	6	1
2026-07-01	5	6	1
2026-08-01	5	6	1
2026-09-01	5	6	1
2026-10-01	5	7	1

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 5 Buy / Strong Buy · 7 Hold · 1 Sell / Strong Sell

1 upgrades0 downgrades0 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 1 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

BNP ParibasOct 6

$20.00New observation · no comparable prior

$0$11.00$22.00

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Cash from operations strengthens to at least $225 million in Q2 2026Cash from operations: $146M
Operating income improves to at least $151 million in Q2 2026Published status: Under Pressure
Maintain revenue near $14.3 billion in FY26Published status: Under Pressure

Next proof point

Nov 23, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.9%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-51.7%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Amentum outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This investment represents a stable growth thesis with a focus on maintaining revenue and improving margins. The current state is cautious, as recent performance has been neutral and confidence has shifted to medium.

What's priced into Amentum

The market appears to price AMTM as relatively cheap compared to its peers, with a notable expectations gap. However, the valuation is justified given the current fundamentals and the lack of recent fragility signals.

What the fundamentals likely do

Management is on track with priorities to grow revenue, enhance operating income, and strengthen cash flow. Despite a low probability of missing earnings, recent trends show a downward trajectory in earnings surprises, which could pose risks.

What Amentum hinges on

Key factors for AMTM's future include guidance updates from management and performance of sector bellwethers like SPCX, GE, and RTX. Positive or negative shifts in these companies could significantly impact AMTM's trajectory.

Bottom line

Overall, AMTM's outlook remains cautious as it navigates a challenging environment while focusing on growth and operational improvements. Not investment advice.

Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.