Reading FA? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track FA free→Reading FA? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track FA free→NASDAQIndustrialsSpecialty Business ServicesSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is neutral, while earnings quality is robust, cash backs up reported profits. Management's recent track record has been steady, but risk is high, and the sector backdrop is a headwind. Peer multiples imply a price about 7% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is fair, but weakening. If FA cuts guidance on the next call, that's a meaningful negative. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 7 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $16.71. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $17 FA trades at 20× p/e, below its 21× p/e peer median. Our $18 fair value sits above the price; high confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 5% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about 34%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
No fragility gates fired.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Industrials names rated neutral grew net income 57% of the time over the next year (vs 64% for the rest of the cohort, n=4882).
Over the trailing year it converted 26.36x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Industrials names rated robust grew net income 64% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=3333).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.29 → $0.29 (-1.5% / 30d). 2 raised, 3 cut, 10 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 50% of analysts rate Buy.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$178.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$508.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $5,136.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: If revenue growth picks up, it could signal a positive shift for First Advantage Corp. and its peers.
Confirms:Revenue growth in the Industrials sector speeds up again, above 5%.
Disproves:Revenue growth keeps slowing down, staying below 5%.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
Concerns about AI disruption could impact revenue growth.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On May 7, 2026, First Advantage Corporation issued a press release announcing its financial results for the quarter ended March 31, 2026. A copy of the press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K and is incorporated by reference herein. The information furnished under this Item 2.02, including Exhibit 99.1, shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
Roughly priced in line with peers.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Diversified Support Services.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
FA First Advantage Corp. | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 44 of 100 | fair | high |
CTAS Cintas | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 82 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
CPRT Copart | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 87 of 100 | fair | elevated |
RBA RB Global | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 71 of 100 | full | moderate |
ULS UL Solutions | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 90 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
3 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by capital-allocation actions. Historically, Industrials names rated stable grew net income 60% of the time over the next year (vs 59% for the rest of the cohort, n=792).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLI
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Management has reaffirmed its full year 2026 revenue guidance, reflecting confidence in continued positive results.
Management emphasizes disciplined execution and a relentless focus on customers to drive results.
Management aims to maintain strong cash flow from operations to support business activities.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On February 26, 2026, First Advantage Corporation issued a press release announcing its financial results for the quarter and year ended December 31, 2025. A copy of the press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K and is incorporated by reference herein. The information furnished under this Item 2.02, including Exhibit 99.1, shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of…
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On January 29, 2026, Bianca Stoica, a member of the Board of Directors (the “Board”) of First Advantage Corporation (the “Company”) notified the Board of her resignation as a member of the Board and as a member of the Compensation Committee, effective immediately. The resignation of Ms. Stoica was not due to any disagreement with the Company, its m…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On November 6, 2025, First Advantage Corporation issued a press release announcing its financial results for the quarter ended September 30, 2025. A copy of the press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K and is incorporated by reference herein. The information furnished under this Item 2.02, including Exhibit 99.1, shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On August 7, 2025, First Advantage Corporation issued a press release announcing its financial results for the quarter ended June 30, 2025. A copy of the press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K and is incorporated by reference herein. The information furnished under this Item 2.02, including Exhibit 99.1, shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended…