Reading OPLN? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track OPLN free→Reading OPLN? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track OPLN free→NYSEIndustrialsAuto & Truck DealershipsSnapshot 2026-06-15
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is strong. Earnings quality is robust. Management's recent track record has been neutral. Risk is moderate, and the sector backdrop is a headwind. Compared with sector peers, OPLN is above typical. Peer multiples imply a price about 44% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is expensive, growth-justified. Rich on today's multiple, but the three-year horizon reads cheaper once expected earnings growth is included. If OPLN reverses and cuts guidance, it could hurt credibility. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 8 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $38.60. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $39 the market pays 30× p/e — above the 21× p/e peer median but in line with its own 30× history. That premium reflects a durable franchise our peer-anchored $27 fair value understates; treat the 'expensive vs peers' read with low confidence. Analysts: $40–$40. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 44% near-term growth, well above our forecast of about 9%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only expensive valuation — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Industrials names rated strong grew net income 69% of the time over the next year (vs 58% for the rest of the cohort, n=3696).
Over the trailing year it converted 2.26x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Industrials names rated robust grew net income 64% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=3333).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to real (inflation-adjusted) rates, the US dollar, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.35 → $0.35 (-1.2% / 30d). 5 raised, 2 cut, 7 covering analysts.
1 upgrade, 0 downgrades / 30d, 1 maintained. 78% of analysts rate Buy.
0 positive, 0 negative / 30d.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$103.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$242.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $1,732.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-15
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: More cash from operations shows better financial health. This could support future investments and growth.
Confirms:Management reports a big rise in cash from operations since last quarter.
Disproves:Cash from operating activities stays the same or falls since last quarter.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for OPLN yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On June 9, 2026, the Board of Directors (the “Board”) of OPENLANE, Inc. (the “Company”) increased the size of the Board to ten (10) directors and elected David Hult as a director of the Company, effective June 12, 2026. Mr. Hult will serve for a term expiring at the 2027 annual meeting of the Company’s stockholders and until his successor is duly e…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
$40.00 – $40.00 (median $40.00) · 3 analysts · as of 2026-05-06
Looks more expensive than peers.
Around its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Diversified Support Services.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
OPLN OPENLANE, Inc. | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 94 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
CTAS Cintas | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 83 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
CPRT Copart | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 87 of 100 | fair | elevated |
RBA RB Global | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 71 of 100 | full | moderate |
ULS UL Solutions | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 80 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
5 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Industrials names rated neutral grew net income 59% of the time over the next year (vs 60% for the rest of the cohort, n=1113).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
via XLI
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
Management aims to increase the guidance for net income per share for the fiscal year.
Management is focused on increasing the guidance for operating adjusted EPS for the fiscal year.
The company is focused on increasing cash generated from operating activities.
Why it matters: A slowdown in revenue growth could signal weakening demand or market share loss.
Confirms:Q2 revenue growth reported below 15% year over year.
Disproves:Q2 revenue growth reported at or above 15% year over year.
Why it matters: Weak dealer volume growth could signal market share loss or reduced demand.
Confirms:Marketplace dealer volume growth was below 9% compared to last year.
Disproves:Marketplace dealer volume growth reported at or above 9% year over year.
Why it matters: Earnings results will provide insight into the company's performance and growth. This could impact investor sentiment.
Confirms one read:Q2 earnings show a significant increase in revenue and net income compared to Q1.
Confirms the other:Q2 earnings show a decline in revenue or net income compared to Q1.
Why it matters: If guidance goes up, it shows management is confident about future earnings.
Confirms:Management raises net income per share guidance above $1.09.
Disproves:Management maintains or lowers net income per share guidance below $1.09.
Why it matters: Slower cash flow growth may mean there are operational problems or less efficiency.
Confirms:Cash flow from operations growth reported below 30% year over year.
Disproves:Cash flow from operations growth reported at or above 30% year over year.
Why it matters: If the sector's revenue growth speeds up, it could help OPENLANE's performance. This could signal a better market environment.
Confirms:Sector revenue growth is getting closer to 10% each year.
Disproves:Sector revenue growth remains below 5% year over year.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On May 5, 2026, OPENLANE, Inc. (“OPENLANE” or the “Company”) issued a press release announcing its financial results for the three months ended March 31, 2026. OPENLANE will host an earnings conference call and webcast, Tuesday, May 5, 2026 at 8:30 a.m., Eastern Time. The conference call may be accessed by calling 1-833-634-2155 and asking to join the OPENLANE call, and the live webcast may be accessed at the investor relations section of corpora…
Regulation FD Disclosure. On March 3, 2026, as previously announced, OPENLANE, Inc. (the “Company”) will be holding an investor day event beginning at 8:30 a.m. Eastern Time. A copy of the presentation slides to be used during the event are attached as Exhibit 99.1 and are incorporated herein by reference. Forward-Looking Statements Certain statements contained in this report include “forward-looking statements” within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. In pa…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On February 18, 2026, OPENLANE, Inc. (“OPENLANE” or the “Company”) issued a press release announcing its financial results for the three months and year ended December 31, 2025. OPENLANE will host an earnings conference call and webcast, Wednesday, February 18, 2026 at 8:30 a.m., Eastern Time. The conference call may be accessed by calling 1-833-634-2155 and asking to join the OPENLANE call, and the live webcast may be accessed at the investor re…
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On January 29, 2026, Sanjeev Mehra notified OPENLANE, Inc. (the “Company”) of his resignation from the Company’s Board of Directors, effective on such date. Mr. Mehra’s resignation was not related to any disagreement with the Company on any matter relating to its operations, policies or practices. SIGNATURE Pursuant to the requirements of the Secur…