First Advantage Corp. (FA)

NASDAQIndustrialsSpecialty Business ServicesSnapshot 2026-10-23

$21.25+0.14%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge First Advantage Corp.’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

+0.1%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

1.50 → 1.51 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 6 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 24, 2026 to Oct 24, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 6 to 6; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
FY 2026 · Q4
Revenue	—	434.3M
EPS	—	0.334
FY 2026 · Annual
Revenue	$1.67B–$1.71B	1.71B
EPS	$1.23–$1.29non-GAAP	1.275
EBITDA	$472M–$486Mnon-GAAP	—
FY 2027 · Annual
Revenue	—	1.82B
EPS	—	1.505

What the Thesis Depends On

Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Earnings per share near $1.20 in 2026	Earnings per share rise to $1.20.	Intact	EPS falls below $1.15 in FY26	Diluted EPS: $0.10 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $1.15 per share. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 6, 20260.1 USD/share · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 0730adea-844a-47cc-a890-7723ed89b9ac. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Cash from operations remains near $50 million quarterly	Cash from operations stays strong near $50 million.	Intact	Quarterly cash flow falls below $49 million	Cash from operations: $73.596M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $49 million per quarter. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 6, 202673,596,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q2. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Full year 2026 revenue near $1.7 billion	A primary condition in First Advantage Corp.'s published investment case. The stated target is >= $1.625 billion.	Intact	Revenue falls below $1.625 billion in FY26	Revenue: $448.763M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $1.625 billion. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 6, 2026448,763,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 0730adea-844a-47cc-a890-7723ed89b9ac. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$1.51

$1.43 → $1.51 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$1.82B

$1.79B → $1.82B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$1.43	$1,788,962,083	6 / 7
2026-07-25	$1.43	$1,788,621,520	10 / 9
2026-07-26	$1.43	$1,788,621,520	10 / 9
2026-07-27	$1.43	$1,788,621,520	10 / 9
2026-07-28	$1.43	$1,788,962,083	6 / 7
2026-07-29	$1.43	$1,788,962,083	6 / 7
2026-07-30	$1.43	$1,788,621,520	10 / 9
2026-07-31	$1.43	$1,788,962,083	6 / 7
2026-08-01	$1.43	$1,788,962,083	6 / 7
2026-08-02	$1.43	$1,788,932,640	10 / 9
2026-08-03	$1.43	$1,788,932,640	10 / 9
2026-08-04	$1.43	$1,788,962,083	6 / 7
2026-08-05	$1.43	$1,788,621,520	10 / 9
2026-08-06	$1.43	$1,788,962,083	6 / 7
2026-08-07	$1.43	$1,788,962,083	6 / 7
2026-08-08	$1.43	$1,788,962,083	6 / 7
2026-08-09	$1.51	$1,815,735,170	10 / 9
2026-08-10	$1.51	$1,815,735,170	10 / 9
2026-08-11	$1.50	$1,814,990,720	10 / 9
2026-08-12	$1.43	$1,788,962,083	6 / 7
2026-08-13	$1.43	$1,788,962,083	6 / 7
2026-08-14	$1.43	$1,788,962,083	6 / 7
2026-08-15	$1.43	$1,788,962,083	6 / 7
2026-08-16	$1.43	$1,788,962,083	6 / 7
2026-08-17	$1.43	$1,788,962,083	6 / 7
2026-08-18	$1.43	$1,788,962,083	6 / 7
2026-08-19	$1.43	$1,788,962,083	6 / 7
2026-08-20	$1.50	$1,818,940,291	6 / 7
2026-08-21	$1.50	$1,818,940,291	6 / 7
2026-08-22	$1.50	$1,818,940,291	6 / 7
2026-08-23	$1.50	$1,818,940,291	6 / 7
2026-08-24	$1.50	$1,818,940,291	6 / 7
2026-08-25	$1.50	$1,818,940,291	6 / 7
2026-08-26	$1.50	$1,818,940,291	6 / 7
2026-08-27	$1.50	$1,818,940,291	6 / 7
2026-08-28	$1.50	$1,818,940,291	6 / 7
2026-08-29	$1.50	$1,818,940,291	6 / 7
2026-08-30	$1.50	$1,818,940,291	6 / 7
2026-08-31	$1.50	$1,818,940,291	6 / 7
2026-09-01	$1.50	$1,818,940,291	6 / 7
2026-09-02	$1.50	$1,818,940,291	6 / 7
2026-09-03	$1.50	$1,818,940,291	6 / 7
2026-09-04	$1.50	$1,818,940,291	6 / 7
2026-09-05	$1.50	$1,818,940,291	6 / 7
2026-09-06	$1.50	$1,818,940,291	6 / 7
2026-09-07	$1.50	$1,818,940,291	6 / 7
2026-09-08	$1.50	$1,818,940,291	6 / 7
2026-09-09	$1.50	$1,818,940,291	6 / 7
2026-09-10	$1.50	$1,818,940,291	6 / 7
2026-09-11	$1.50	$1,818,940,291	6 / 7
2026-09-12	$1.50	$1,818,929,180	6 / 7
2026-09-13	$1.50	$1,818,929,180	6 / 7
2026-09-14	$1.50	$1,818,929,180	6 / 7
2026-09-15	$1.50	$1,818,929,180	6 / 7
2026-09-16	$1.50	$1,818,929,180	6 / 7
2026-09-17	$1.50	$1,818,929,180	6 / 7
2026-09-18	$1.50	$1,818,929,180	6 / 7
2026-09-19	$1.50	$1,818,929,180	6 / 7
2026-09-20	$1.50	$1,818,929,180	6 / 7
2026-09-21	$1.50	$1,818,929,180	6 / 7
2026-09-22	$1.50	$1,818,929,180	6 / 7
2026-09-23	$1.50	$1,818,929,180	6 / 7
2026-09-24	$1.50	$1,818,929,180	6 / 7
2026-09-25	$1.50	$1,818,929,180	6 / 7
2026-09-26	$1.50	$1,818,929,180	6 / 7
2026-09-27	$1.50	$1,818,929,180	6 / 7
2026-09-28	$1.50	$1,818,929,180	6 / 7
2026-09-29	$1.50	$1,818,929,180	6 / 7
2026-09-30	$1.50	$1,818,929,180	6 / 7
2026-10-01	$1.50	$1,818,929,180	6 / 7
2026-10-02	$1.50	$1,818,929,180	6 / 7
2026-10-03	$1.50	$1,818,929,180	6 / 7
2026-10-04	$1.50	$1,818,929,180	6 / 7
2026-10-05	$1.50	$1,818,929,180	6 / 7
2026-10-06	$1.50	$1,818,929,180	6 / 7
2026-10-07	$1.50	$1,818,929,180	6 / 7
2026-10-08	$1.50	$1,818,929,180	6 / 7
2026-10-09	$1.50	$1,818,951,402	6 / 7
2026-10-10	$1.50	$1,818,951,402	6 / 7
2026-10-11	$1.50	$1,818,951,402	6 / 7
2026-10-12	$1.50	$1,818,951,402	6 / 7
2026-10-13	$1.51	$1,820,095,846	6 / 7
2026-10-14	$1.51	$1,820,095,846	6 / 7
2026-10-15	$1.51	$1,820,095,846	6 / 7
2026-10-16	$1.51	$1,820,095,846	6 / 7
2026-10-17	$1.51	$1,820,095,846	6 / 7
2026-10-18	$1.51	$1,820,095,846	6 / 7
2026-10-19	$1.51	$1,820,095,846	6 / 7
2026-10-20	$1.51	$1,820,095,846	6 / 7
2026-10-21	$1.51	$1,820,095,846	6 / 7
2026-10-22	$1.51	$1,820,095,846	6 / 7
2026-10-23	$1.51	$1,820,095,846	6 / 7
2026-10-24	$1.51	$1,820,095,846	6 / 7

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	5	5	1
2026-06-01	5	4	1
2026-07-01	5	5	1
2026-08-01	6	5	1
2026-09-01	6	5	0
2026-10-01	6	4	0

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 6 Buy / Strong Buy · 4 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades0 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 0 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

Individual price-target observations are unavailable.

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Earnings per share near $1.20 in 2026Diluted EPS: $0.10 per share
Cash from operations remains near $50 million quarterlyCash from operations: $73.596M
Full year 2026 revenue near $1.7 billionRevenue: $448.763M

Next proof point

Nov 5, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.7%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-43.1%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

First Advantage Corp. outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

FA is a high-risk growth business, not yet a proven durable compounder, because it remains loss-making despite strong recent financial performance. The long-term thesis is intact, with management delivering faster revenue growth and raising its 2026 outlook.

What's priced into First Advantage Corp.

The valuation evidence is mixed: FA is described as cheap versus peers, yet its overall value assessment is expensive. The expectations gap is negative, which suggests market expectations may be ahead of what the evidence supports; confidence in this reading is medium. Recent valuation fell, while priced-in fragility is low and the overall tag is justified.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near term, the raised 2026 revenue and earnings outlook, revenue growth acceleration, and high customer retention support continued operating progress. Management is also reducing debt and repurchasing shares, though the capital allocation picture is not the main driver of the growth thesis. Risk remains high, and a reversal of recently raised guidance would damage confidence; the broader sector backdrop is a headwind.

What First Advantage Corp. hinges on

The multi-year view hinges on management sustaining growth through its AI-driven technology and verticalized sales approach while maintaining high customer retention. Near term, the key test is whether FA can reaffirm its raised guidance, and whether industrial peers continue to report strong results and higher guidance. Weak peer results or lower guidance could remove sector support.