Leidos (LDOS)

NYSEIndustrialsInformation Technology ServicesSnapshot 2026-10-15

$124.85+0.69%

Close 2026-10-16 · 1-day change

Read the published Living FV report summary

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 15, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Leidos’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

-2.6%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

12.74 → 12.41 EPS · FY ending Jan 2, 2028 · 10 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 15, 2026 to Oct 15, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 11 to 10; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Living FV™

Living Fair Value by QuarterlyIQ

A valuation that evolves as the business changes.

A published Living FV snapshot is not available yet. The valuation workflow remains discoverable; a market target cannot supply the missing evidence.

View Living FV report and workflow

What the Thesis Depends On

4 key conditions need to be met for the investment thesis to play out.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Increase cash flow from operations above $1.8 billion in FY26	Cash flow from operations is a focus to support investments and shareholder returns.	Broken	Cash flow from operations remains below $1.5 billion in FY26	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 6 of last 6 quarters. Operating cash flow rose from $58M in 2025-Q1 to $793M in 2026-Q2, reflecting strong cash generation and improved free cash flow conversion. Management consistently highlights cash flow growth, and the financials show delivering progress. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026
Maintain gross margin near 20% in FY26	A primary condition in Leidos's published investment case. The stated target is >=20%.	Intact	Gross margin falls below 18% in FY26	Gross margin: 17.92% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=20%. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 4, 202617.924528 percent · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jul 3, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q2. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Achieve revenue near $18.2 billion in FY26	A primary condition in Leidos's published investment case. The stated target is ~$18.2B.	Under Pressure	Revenue falls below $17 billion in FY26	Revenue: $4.558B FY2027-Q2; GAAP. Published target: ~$18.2B. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 4, 20264,558,000,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2027-Q2 · Period ending Jul 3, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 928e8d19-2d13-4de4-b59c-f53f61bb900c. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 6 of last 6 quarters. Revenue grew from $4.21B in 2025-Q4 to $4.56B in 2026-Q2, a 7% year-over-year increase, driven by growth in Defense Tech, Energy Infrastructure, and Cyber pillars. Management consistently emphasizes this growth priority and the trajectory is delivering. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026
Generate $625 million revenue from strategic joint venture in 2026	The company is forming a strategic joint venture projected to add $625 million in revenue.	Intact	Joint venture revenue falls below $500 million in 2026	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-01-02 · fmp

FY2028 EPS$12.41

$13.08 → $12.41 · observed estimates

FY2028 revenue$19.07B

$19.06B → $19.07B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2028 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$13.08	$19,064,958,060	10 / 10
2026-07-25	$13.08	$19,064,958,060	10 / 10
2026-07-26	$13.08	$19,064,958,060	10 / 10
2026-07-27	$13.08	$19,064,958,060	10 / 10
2026-07-28	$13.08	$19,064,958,060	10 / 10
2026-07-29	$13.08	$19,077,460,681	10 / 11
2026-07-30	$13.08	$19,077,460,681	10 / 11
2026-07-31	$13.08	$19,077,460,681	11 / 11
2026-08-01	$13.08	$19,077,460,681	11 / 11
2026-08-02	$13.08	$19,077,460,681	11 / 11
2026-08-03	$13.08	$19,077,460,681	11 / 11
2026-08-04	$13.08	$19,077,460,681	11 / 11
2026-08-05	$13.08	$19,077,460,681	11 / 11
2026-08-06	$13.08	$19,077,460,681	11 / 11
2026-08-07	$12.95	$19,127,146,894	11 / 11
2026-08-08	$12.95	$19,127,146,894	11 / 11
2026-08-09	$12.95	$19,127,146,894	11 / 11
2026-08-10	$12.95	$19,127,146,894	11 / 11
2026-08-12	$12.95	$19,127,146,894	11 / 11
2026-08-13	$12.95	$19,127,146,894	11 / 11
2026-08-14	$12.95	$19,127,146,894	11 / 11
2026-08-15	$12.95	$19,127,146,894	11 / 11
2026-08-16	$12.95	$19,127,146,894	11 / 11
2026-08-17	$12.95	$19,127,146,894	11 / 11
2026-08-18	$12.95	$19,127,146,894	11 / 11
2026-08-19	$12.95	$19,127,146,894	11 / 11
2026-08-20	$12.78	$19,184,293,637	11 / 12
2026-08-21	$12.78	$19,184,293,637	11 / 12
2026-08-22	$12.78	$19,184,293,637	11 / 12
2026-08-23	$12.78	$19,184,293,375	11 / 12
2026-08-24	$12.78	$19,184,293,375	11 / 12
2026-08-25	$12.78	$19,184,293,375	11 / 12
2026-08-26	$12.78	$19,184,293,375	11 / 12
2026-08-27	$12.78	$19,184,293,375	11 / 12
2026-08-28	$12.78	$19,184,293,375	11 / 12
2026-08-29	$12.78	$19,184,293,375	11 / 12
2026-08-30	$12.78	$19,184,293,375	11 / 12
2026-08-31	$12.78	$19,184,293,375	11 / 12
2026-09-01	$12.78	$19,184,293,375	11 / 12
2026-09-02	$12.78	$19,184,293,375	11 / 12
2026-09-03	$12.78	$19,184,293,375	11 / 12
2026-09-04	$12.78	$19,184,293,375	11 / 12
2026-09-05	$12.78	$19,184,293,375	11 / 12
2026-09-06	$12.78	$19,184,293,375	11 / 12
2026-09-07	$12.78	$19,184,293,375	11 / 12
2026-09-08	$12.78	$19,184,293,375	11 / 12
2026-09-09	$12.75	$19,184,293,375	11 / 12
2026-09-10	$12.75	$19,184,293,375	11 / 12
2026-09-11	$12.75	$19,184,283,537	11 / 12
2026-09-12	$12.75	$19,184,283,537	11 / 12
2026-09-13	$12.75	$19,184,283,537	11 / 12
2026-09-14	$12.75	$19,184,283,537	11 / 12
2026-09-15	$12.74	$19,209,600,152	11 / 12
2026-09-16	$12.74	$19,209,600,152	11 / 12
2026-09-17	$12.74	$19,209,600,152	11 / 12
2026-09-18	$12.74	$19,209,600,152	11 / 12
2026-09-19	$12.74	$19,209,600,152	11 / 12
2026-09-20	$12.75	$19,191,645,974	11 / 12
2026-09-21	$12.75	$19,191,645,974	11 / 12
2026-09-22	$12.75	$19,191,645,974	11 / 12
2026-09-23	$12.75	$19,191,645,974	11 / 12
2026-09-24	$12.75	$19,191,645,974	11 / 12
2026-09-25	$12.75	$19,191,645,974	11 / 12
2026-09-26	$12.75	$19,191,645,974	11 / 12
2026-09-27	$12.75	$19,191,645,974	11 / 12
2026-09-28	$12.75	$19,191,645,974	11 / 12
2026-09-29	$12.75	$19,191,645,974	11 / 12
2026-09-30	$12.75	$19,191,645,974	11 / 12
2026-10-01	$12.75	$19,191,645,974	11 / 12
2026-10-02	$12.75	$19,191,645,974	11 / 12
2026-10-03	$12.75	$19,191,645,974	11 / 12
2026-10-04	$12.73	$19,191,645,974	11 / 12
2026-10-05	$12.73	$19,191,645,974	11 / 12
2026-10-06	$12.73	$19,190,583,474	11 / 12
2026-10-07	$12.66	$19,161,708,474	11 / 11
2026-10-08	$12.64	$19,162,052,324	10 / 11
2026-10-09	$12.59	$19,135,043,237	10 / 11
2026-10-10	$12.59	$19,135,043,237	10 / 11
2026-10-11	$12.59	$19,135,043,237	10 / 11
2026-10-12	$12.59	$19,135,043,237	10 / 11
2026-10-13	$12.51	$19,067,060,299	10 / 11
2026-10-14	$12.41	$19,069,355,299	10 / 11
2026-10-15	$12.41	$19,069,355,299	10 / 11

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold
2026-05-01	9	8
2026-06-01	9	10
2026-07-01	7	10
2026-08-01	7	10
2026-09-01	7	10
2026-10-01	7	11

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 7 Buy / Strong Buy · 11 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades1 downgrades4 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 16–Oct 15 · 5 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

JefferiesOct 6 · prior Aug 9

$145.00 → $130.00-10.3%

$0$79.75$159.50

0 raises · 1 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 16, 2026–Oct 15, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Increase cash flow from operations above $1.8 billion in FY26Published status: Broken
Maintain gross margin near 20% in FY26Gross margin: 17.92%
Achieve revenue near $18.2 billion in FY26Published status: Under Pressure
Generate $625 million revenue from strategic joint venture in 2026Direct metric needs a verified mapping

Next proof point

Nov 3, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.5%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-49.6%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Leidos outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 10, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This investment represents a durable compounder with a focus on steady growth in defense and technology sectors. The current thesis state is intact, despite a recent shift in confidence from high to medium.

What's priced into Leidos

The market currently prices LDOS as cheap compared to its peers, with an expectations gap indicating that investors are somewhat cautious. There is a low level of fragility, suggesting that the stock is not overly sensitive to negative news at this time.

What the fundamentals likely do

Management is on track to achieve double-digit revenue growth and increase cash flow from operations, which are positive signs for the company's fundamentals. However, there is an elevated risk due to potential sector headwinds and recent mixed performance from industry peers.

What Leidos hinges on

The long-term thesis hinges on the performance of sector bellwethers like BR, CACI, and G, which could influence LDOS's growth trajectory. Additionally, any changes in guidance or strategic ventures could significantly impact investor confidence.