CACI International (CACI)

NYSEIndustrialsInformation Technology ServicesSnapshot 2026-10-23

$633.98+2.38%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge CACI International’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

+0.8%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

37.92 → 38.23 EPS · FY ending Jun 30, 2028 · 9 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 24, 2026 to Oct 24, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 9 to 9; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
FY 2027 · Q2
Revenue	—	2.54B
EPS	—	7.377
FY 2027 · Annual
Revenue	$10.7B–$10.9B	10.79B
EPS	$33.18–$34.08non-GAAP	33.472
Capital expenditure	-$115,000	—
Free cash flow	At least $900Mnon-GAAP $900,000	—
Operating cash flow	$1.02M	—
FY 2028 · Annual
Revenue	—	11.5B
EPS	—	38.232

What the Thesis Depends On

4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Successful integration of $2.6B ARKA acquisition contributing $150M revenue	CACI grows revenue about 8.5% yearly, helped by the ARKA acquisition.	Intact	ARKA revenue contribution falls significantly below $150M in FY26	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Adjusted diluted EPS reaches about $28.38 in fiscal 2026	Earnings per share rose 17.6% year over year.	Intact	EPS falls below $27.7 in FY26	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
EBITDA margin near 11.9% in fiscal 2026	Profit margins are improving, with EBITDA margin guidance raised to 11.9%.	Intact	EBITDA margin falls below 11.7% in FY26	Gross margin: 33.72% FY2026-Q4; GAAP. Published target: 11.9%. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 6, 202633.721882 percent · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q4 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q4. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Revenue grows to about $9.55 billion in fiscal 2026	CACI grows revenue about 8.5% yearly, helped by the ARKA acquisition.	Intact	Revenue falls below $9.3 billion in FY26	Revenue: $2.475B FY2027-Q1; GAAP. Published target: ~$9.55B. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Oct 22, 20262,474,597,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2027-Q1 · Period ending Sep 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 6501d896-b1e4-4c40-ac4f-071fe1d705d3. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-06-30 · fmp

FY2028 EPS$38.23

$35.79 → $38.23 · observed estimates

FY2028 revenue$11.50B

$11.35B → $11.50B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2028 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$35.79	$11,348,563,037	7 / 11
2026-07-25	$35.79	$11,348,563,037	7 / 11
2026-07-26	$35.22	$11,349,832,783	7 / 11
2026-07-27	$35.22	$11,349,832,783	7 / 11
2026-07-28	$35.22	$11,349,832,783	7 / 11
2026-07-29	$35.22	$11,349,832,783	8 / 12
2026-07-30	$35.22	$11,349,832,783	8 / 12
2026-07-31	$35.22	$11,349,832,783	8 / 12
2026-08-01	$35.22	$11,349,832,783	8 / 12
2026-08-02	$35.22	$11,349,832,783	8 / 12
2026-08-03	$35.22	$11,349,832,783	8 / 12
2026-08-04	$35.21	$11,349,832,784	8 / 12
2026-08-05	$35.21	$11,349,832,784	8 / 12
2026-08-06	$35.22	$11,349,905,090	12 / 12
2026-08-07	$35.48	$11,357,874,450	7 / 9
2026-08-08	$36.44	$11,394,547,770	13 / 13
2026-08-09	$36.44	$11,394,547,770	13 / 13
2026-08-10	$36.44	$11,394,547,770	13 / 13
2026-08-11	$35.48	$11,357,874,450	7 / 9
2026-08-12	$35.48	$11,357,874,450	7 / 9
2026-08-13	$35.48	$11,357,874,450	7 / 9
2026-08-14	$35.48	$11,357,874,450	7 / 9
2026-08-15	$35.48	$11,357,874,450	8 / 9
2026-08-16	$35.48	$11,357,874,450	8 / 9
2026-08-17	$35.48	$11,357,874,450	8 / 9
2026-08-18	$35.48	$11,357,874,450	8 / 9
2026-08-19	$35.48	$11,357,874,450	8 / 9
2026-08-20	$35.48	$11,357,874,450	9 / 11
2026-08-21	$37.92	$11,494,449,971	9 / 11
2026-08-22	$37.92	$11,494,449,971	9 / 11
2026-08-23	$37.92	$11,494,449,971	9 / 11
2026-08-24	$37.92	$11,494,449,971	9 / 11
2026-08-25	$37.92	$11,494,449,971	9 / 11
2026-08-26	$37.92	$11,494,449,971	9 / 11
2026-08-27	$37.92	$11,494,449,971	9 / 11
2026-08-28	$37.92	$11,494,449,971	9 / 11
2026-08-29	$37.92	$11,494,449,971	9 / 11
2026-08-30	$37.92	$11,494,449,971	9 / 11
2026-08-31	$37.92	$11,494,449,971	9 / 11
2026-09-01	$37.92	$11,494,449,971	9 / 11
2026-09-02	$37.92	$11,494,449,971	9 / 11
2026-09-03	$37.92	$11,494,449,971	9 / 11
2026-09-04	$37.92	$11,494,449,971	9 / 11
2026-09-05	$37.92	$11,494,449,971	9 / 11
2026-09-06	$37.92	$11,494,449,971	9 / 11
2026-09-07	$37.92	$11,494,449,971	9 / 11
2026-09-08	$37.92	$11,494,449,971	9 / 11
2026-09-09	$37.92	$11,494,449,971	9 / 11
2026-09-10	$37.92	$11,494,449,971	9 / 11
2026-09-11	$37.92	$11,494,449,971	9 / 11
2026-09-12	$37.92	$11,494,449,971	9 / 11
2026-09-13	$37.92	$11,494,449,971	9 / 11
2026-09-14	$37.92	$11,494,449,971	9 / 11
2026-09-15	$37.92	$11,494,449,971	9 / 11
2026-09-16	$37.92	$11,494,449,971	9 / 11
2026-09-17	$37.92	$11,494,449,971	9 / 11
2026-09-18	$37.92	$11,494,449,971	9 / 11
2026-09-19	$37.92	$11,494,449,971	9 / 11
2026-09-20	$37.92	$11,494,449,970	9 / 11
2026-09-21	$37.92	$11,494,449,970	9 / 11
2026-09-22	$37.92	$11,494,446,477	9 / 11
2026-09-23	$37.92	$11,494,446,477	9 / 11
2026-09-24	$37.92	$11,494,446,477	9 / 11
2026-09-25	$37.92	$11,494,448,628	9 / 11
2026-09-26	$37.92	$11,494,448,628	9 / 11
2026-09-27	$37.92	$11,494,448,628	9 / 11
2026-09-28	$37.92	$11,494,448,628	9 / 11
2026-09-29	$37.87	$11,495,040,371	9 / 11
2026-09-30	$37.87	$11,495,040,371	9 / 11
2026-10-01	$37.87	$11,495,040,371	9 / 11
2026-10-02	$37.87	$11,495,040,371	9 / 11
2026-10-03	$37.87	$11,495,040,371	9 / 11
2026-10-04	$37.87	$11,495,040,371	9 / 11
2026-10-05	$37.87	$11,495,040,371	9 / 11
2026-10-06	$37.89	$11,498,683,228	9 / 11
2026-10-07	$37.65	$11,498,697,514	9 / 11
2026-10-08	$37.65	$11,499,316,364	9 / 11
2026-10-09	$37.67	$11,497,272,804	9 / 11
2026-10-10	$37.67	$11,497,272,804	9 / 11
2026-10-11	$37.67	$11,497,058,519	9 / 11
2026-10-12	$37.67	$11,497,058,519	9 / 11
2026-10-13	$37.66	$11,494,155,519	9 / 11
2026-10-14	$37.66	$11,494,155,519	9 / 11
2026-10-15	$37.66	$11,494,155,519	9 / 11
2026-10-16	$37.66	$11,494,155,519	9 / 11
2026-10-17	$37.66	$11,494,155,519	9 / 11
2026-10-18	$37.57	$11,483,727,424	9 / 11
2026-10-19	$37.57	$11,483,727,424	9 / 11
2026-10-20	$37.57	$11,483,727,424	9 / 11
2026-10-21	$38.02	$11,491,047,424	9 / 11
2026-10-22	$38.02	$11,491,032,083	9 / 11
2026-10-23	$38.16	$11,502,726,323	9 / 11
2026-10-24	$38.23	$11,502,418,490	9 / 11

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	12	4	0
2026-06-01	12	4	0
2026-07-01	12	4	0
2026-08-01	12	4	0
2026-09-01	12	4	0
2026-10-01	13	4	1

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 13 Buy / Strong Buy · 4 Hold · 1 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades1 downgrades4 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 5 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

UBSOct 23 · prior Aug 7

$804.00 → $823.00+2.4%

Stifel NicolausOct 23 · prior Aug 6

$892.00 → $925.00+3.7%

Cantor FitzgeraldOct 21 · prior Jul 22

$675.00 → $785.00+16.3%

MacquarieOct 16

$780.00New observation · no comparable prior

$0$508.75$1017.50

3 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Successful integration of $2.6B ARKA acquisition contributing $150M revenueDirect metric needs a verified mapping
Adjusted diluted EPS reaches about $28.38 in fiscal 2026Direct metric needs a verified mapping
EBITDA margin near 11.9% in fiscal 2026Gross margin: 33.72%
Revenue grows to about $9.55 billion in fiscal 2026Revenue: $2.475B

Next proof point

Next earnings date unavailable

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.6%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-33.4%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

CACI International outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

CACI is a government-services growth business tied to national security demand and contract awards. Its long-term thesis is intact, with recent performance holding in the top half of its industry, though management execution is rated volatile and overall risk is elevated.

What's priced into CACI International

The valuation evidence describes CACI as cheap versus peers, with expectations slightly below the model’s reference point. The priced-in assessment calls the setup justified and fragility low, meaning weak execution is a concern but the evidence does not point to a broader combination of expensive valuation and turbulence.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near-term results have been strong: first-quarter revenue and funded backlog were higher than a year earlier, and operating income improved as revenue and gross profit rose. The company has also recorded two recent earnings beats, but a guidance cut remains a meaningful risk despite a low estimated miss probability. The available figures do not isolate ARKA’s contribution or establish a specific milestone in expanding space capabilities.

What CACI International hinges on

Over the next few quarters, the thesis depends on continued delivery against national security demand and contract awards, alongside progress in operating performance. A guidance cut would weaken the setup; continued earnings strength and higher guidance from sector bellwethers would support it, while misses or lower guidance from those companies could remove a sector tailwind.