Target Hospitality Corp. (TH)
NASDAQIndustrialsSpecialty Business ServicesSnapshot 2026-09-09
$19.20-5.19%
Close 2026-09-09 · 1-day change
NASDAQIndustrialsSpecialty Business ServicesSnapshot 2026-09-09
Intact: The reason to own it still holds.
Target Hospitality aims for $370-$380M revenue in 2026. They plan $460-$480M in capital spending. Adjusted EBITDA target is $75-$85M. The company is working to improve after losses.
The company is losing money and missed earnings several times. A recent share offering may dilute stock value. Revenue fell in early 2026 and growth is uncertain.
The price is about 22% above our fair value near $15. Analysts expect 57% revenue growth. Our fair value is below the Street median of $19.50.
Breaks if: Adjusted EBITDA falls below $75M in FY26
Breaks if: Capex falls below $460M in FY26
Breaks if: Revenue falls below $370M in FY26
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
This investment represents a turnaround story with a focus on growth through its Workforce Hospitality Solutions segment. The current thesis state is cautious, as recent financial performance has been weak despite some positive management actions.
The market appears to have priced in a low expectations gap, indicating that investors are not overly optimistic about TH's near-term recovery. Valuation shows a premium compared to peers, suggesting that the market is aware of the company's optionality but remains cautious.
Management is on track with key priorities, including expanding the Workforce Hospitality Solutions segment and increasing revenue guidance for 2026. However, recent financial performance has been weak, and there is an elevated risk of missing future earnings expectations.
The long-term thesis hinges on TH's ability to maintain momentum in its key segments and the performance of sector bellwethers like CTAS, CPRT, and ROL. Any guidance cuts or negative trends in these companies could significantly impact TH's outlook.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Yes, our read has strengthened. The latest earnings beat supports this improvement. The company secured multi-year contracts to expand its Workforce Hospitality Solutions segment. It also raised its revenue outlook for 2026 to between $410 million and $445 million. There are no new threats noted.
as of 2026-09-09
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
In the next 1 to 3 years, TH's performance will depend on its execution of growth strategies and external sector conditions. Not investment advice.