Target Hospitality Corp. (TH)

NASDAQIndustrialsSpecialty Business ServicesSnapshot 2026-10-23

$13.79-1.22%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Target Hospitality Corp.’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

Comparable estimates unavailable

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

A matching fiscal period and sufficient coverage are required.

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least five analysts and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
FY 2026 · Q4
Revenue	—	163.01M
EPS	—	0.155
FY 2026 · Annual
Revenue	$410M–$420M	439.35M
EPS	—	-0.035
Capital expenditure	$490M–$510M	—
EBITDA	$85M–$95Mnon-GAAP	—
FY 2027 · Annual
Revenue	—	741.93M
EPS	—	0.898

What the Thesis Depends On

Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Adjusted EBITDA between $75M and $85M in 2026	Adjusted EBITDA target is $75-$85M.	Improving	Adjusted EBITDA falls below $75M in FY26	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Capital expenditures between $460M and $480M in 2026	A supporting condition in Target Hospitality Corp.'s published investment case. The stated target is $460M to $480M.	Intact	Capex falls below $460M in FY26	Capital expenditures: $5.448M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: $460M to $480M. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 10, 20265,448,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q2. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Revenue between $370M and $380M in 2026	A primary condition in Target Hospitality Corp.'s published investment case. The stated target is $370M to $380M.	Intact	Revenue falls below $370M in FY26	Revenue: $85.455M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: $370M to $380M. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 10, 202685,455,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: cc3f2d4f-ff2d-41a3-9369-6a1cb9021c0d. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS: comparable history unavailable.

FY2027 revenue$0.74B

Unavailable → $0.74B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-07-25	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-07-26	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-07-27	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-07-28	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-07-29	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-07-30	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-07-31	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-02	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-03	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-04	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-05	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-06	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-08	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-09	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-10	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-12	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-08-13	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-17	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-08-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 3
2026-08-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-08-20	Unavailable	$683,665,240	4 / 5
2026-08-21	Unavailable	$683,681,906	4 / 5
2026-08-22	Unavailable	$683,681,906	4 / 5
2026-08-23	Unavailable	$683,681,906	4 / 5
2026-08-24	Unavailable	$683,681,906	4 / 5
2026-08-25	Unavailable	$683,681,906	4 / 5
2026-08-26	Unavailable	$683,681,906	4 / 5
2026-08-27	Unavailable	$683,681,906	4 / 5
2026-08-28	Unavailable	$683,681,906	4 / 5
2026-08-29	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-08-30	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-08-31	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-09-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-09-02	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-09-03	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-09-04	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-09-05	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-09-06	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-09-07	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-09-08	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 3
2026-09-09	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-10	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-11	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-12	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-13	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	3 / 4
2026-09-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	4 / 4
2026-09-16	Unavailable	$741,928,354	4 / 5
2026-09-17	Unavailable	$741,928,354	4 / 5
2026-09-18	Unavailable	$741,928,354	4 / 5
2026-09-19	Unavailable	$741,928,354	4 / 5
2026-09-20	Unavailable	$741,928,354	4 / 5
2026-09-21	Unavailable	$741,928,354	4 / 5
2026-09-22	Unavailable	$741,928,354	4 / 5
2026-09-23	Unavailable	$741,928,354	4 / 5
2026-09-24	Unavailable	$741,928,354	4 / 5
2026-09-25	Unavailable	$741,928,354	4 / 5
2026-09-26	Unavailable	$741,928,354	4 / 5
2026-09-27	Unavailable	$741,928,354	4 / 5
2026-09-28	Unavailable	$741,928,354	4 / 5
2026-09-29	Unavailable	$741,928,354	4 / 5
2026-09-30	Unavailable	$741,928,354	4 / 5
2026-10-01	Unavailable	$741,928,354	4 / 5
2026-10-02	Unavailable	$741,928,354	4 / 5
2026-10-03	Unavailable	$741,928,354	4 / 5
2026-10-04	Unavailable	$741,928,354	4 / 5
2026-10-05	Unavailable	$741,928,354	4 / 5
2026-10-06	Unavailable	$741,928,354	4 / 5
2026-10-07	Unavailable	$741,928,354	4 / 5
2026-10-08	Unavailable	$741,928,354	4 / 5
2026-10-09	Unavailable	$741,928,354	4 / 5
2026-10-10	Unavailable	$741,928,354	4 / 5
2026-10-11	Unavailable	$741,928,354	4 / 5
2026-10-12	Unavailable	$741,928,354	4 / 5
2026-10-13	Unavailable	$741,928,354	4 / 5
2026-10-14	Unavailable	$741,928,354	4 / 5
2026-10-15	Unavailable	$741,928,354	4 / 5
2026-10-16	Unavailable	$741,928,354	4 / 5
2026-10-17	Unavailable	$741,928,354	4 / 5
2026-10-18	Unavailable	$741,928,354	4 / 5
2026-10-19	Unavailable	$741,928,354	4 / 5
2026-10-20	Unavailable	$741,928,354	4 / 5
2026-10-21	Unavailable	$741,928,354	4 / 5
2026-10-22	Unavailable	$741,928,354	4 / 5
2026-10-23	Unavailable	$741,928,354	4 / 5
2026-10-24	Unavailable	$741,928,354	4 / 5

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold
2026-05-01	3	0
2026-06-01	3	1
2026-07-01	3	1
2026-08-01	5	1
2026-09-01	5	0
2026-10-01	5	0

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 5 Buy / Strong Buy · 0 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades0 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 0 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

Individual price-target observations are unavailable.

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Adjusted EBITDA between $75M and $85M in 2026Direct metric needs a verified mapping
Capital expenditures between $460M and $480M in 2026Capital expenditures: $5.448M
Revenue between $370M and $380M in 2026Revenue: $85.455M

Next proof point

Nov 5, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

2.1%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-35.7%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Target Hospitality Corp. outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This is a growth-focused business with a loss-making value profile, rather than an established, steady compounder. The long-term thesis has some operating support from contract wins and rising revenue, but recent financial performance remains weak and the thesis state is watch.

What's priced into Target Hospitality Corp.

TH trades at a 2.67-times premium to peers, with valuation tagged as justified and low fragility. The expectations gap is negative, suggesting expectations may be demanding relative to the evidence; confidence in that assessment is low.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near term, management’s revenue guidance has risen, and Workforce Hospitality Solutions revenue grew from the first to the second quarter as multi-year contracts were secured. Capital spending guidance also increased to support growth, while recent performance remains weak and management is described as volatile. A guidance cut on the next call is a stated risk, despite the snapshot’s low miss-risk tier.

What Target Hospitality Corp. hinges on

Over the next few quarters, the thesis depends on management delivering its 2026 revenue plan and converting Workforce Hospitality Solutions contracts into sustained revenue and improved profitability. A guidance cut would weaken the case, while continued strength from sector bellwethers CTAS, CPRT, and ROL could support the industrials backdrop; misses or lower guidance from those peers could remove that support.