Reading SPWH? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track SPWH free→Reading SPWH? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track SPWH free→NASDAQConsumer DiscretionarySpecialty RetailSnapshot 2026-06-15
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
Recent financial performance is weak, and earnings quality cannot be assessed since the company was unprofitable over the past year. Management's recent track record has been fairly steady, but risk is elevated, and the sector backdrop is a headwind. Peer multiples imply a price about 77% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is cheap, value-trap risk, as it trades below peer multiples while recent financials are weak. Key factors to watch include guidance changes and sector trends, particularly how bellwethers perform. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 1 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $1.25. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $1.23 SPWH trades at 0× p/s, below its 1× p/s peer median. Our $5.58 fair value sits above the price; low confidence. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 77% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about 4%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
TTM earnings are negative, so the read leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods rather than P/E. This is a data condition, not a forward call.
No fragility gates fired.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated weak grew net income 58% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=2844).
Over the trailing year it converted -0.71x of net income into operating cash flow.
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, Fed net liquidity, long-term interest rates, real (inflation-adjusted) rates.
3 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Consumer Discretionary names rated neutral grew net income 54% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=646).
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $-0.11 → $-0.11 (+3.0% / 30d). 1 raised, 0 cut, 3 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 100% of analysts rate Buy.
1 positive, 0 negative / 30d. See F4 management tile for the event list.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$241.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$664.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $7,284.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-15
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: This report will show if consumer spending is improving. It impacts retail sales directly.
Confirms one read:Retail sales increase month over month by more than 0.5%.
Confirms the other:Retail sales decline month over month by more than -0.5%.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for SPWH yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
and the related information in Exhibit 99.1 attached hereto shall not be deemed "filed" for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the "Exchange Act"), or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section and shall not be incorporated by reference into any filing of the Company under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or the Exchange Act, regardless of any general incorporation language in such filing, except as shall be expressly set forth by speci…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
TTM earnings are negative. P/E-based methods drop out and the estimate leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods. A data condition, not a forward call.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Looks more expensive than peers.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Other Specialty Retail.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
SPWH Sportsman's Warehouse Holdings Inc | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 43 of 100 | inexpensive | elevated |
ULTA Ulta Beauty | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 97 of 100 | fair | moderate |
TSCO Tractor Supply | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 58 of 100 | fair | elevated |
CHWY Chewy | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 99 of 100 | fair | elevated |
BBWI Bath & Body Works, Inc. | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 99 of 100 | inexpensive | elevated |
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
via XLY
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
The company aims to keep capital expenditures within the $20 million to $25 million range for 2026.
Stated in 3 of last 3 quarters. The company has consistently guided CAPEX to be between $20 million and $25 million for 2026. This guidance has been reiterated without deviation, indicating a stable capital allocation strategy.
“The Company expects capital expenditures for 2026 to be in the range of $20 million to $25 million.”
“Capital expenditures for 2026 to be in the range of $20 million to $25 million.”
“The Company expects capital expenditures for 2025 to be less than $25 million.”
The company aims to achieve adjusted EBITDA in the range of $30 million to $36 million for 2026.
Stated in 3 of last 3 quarters. The company has consistently guided adjusted EBITDA to be between $30 million and $36 million for 2026. This target has been reiterated, showing a focus on growth despite recent financial challenges.
“The Company is reiterating its guidance and estimates adjusted EBITDA to be in the range of $30 million to $36 million.”
The company aims to achieve free cash flow of approximately $7.6 million for the full year 2026.
Newly stated in 2026-Q1. The company has set a target for free cash flow of approximately $7.6 million for 2026. This is a new focus area, and progress will need to be monitored in subsequent quarters to assess delivery.
“The Company expects free cash flow for the full year to be approximately $7.6 million.”
Why it matters: The FOMC's choice on interest rates impacts how much people spend. It also affects retail sales.
Confirms one read:FOMC raises rates by 25 basis points or more.
Confirms the other:FOMC keeps rates unchanged or lowers them.
Why it matters: GDP growth shows how well the economy is doing. This affects how people spend their money.
Confirms one read:GDP growth is reported above 2% for Q1 2026.
Confirms the other:GDP growth is reported below 1% for Q1 2026.
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On March 25, 2026, the Board of Directors (the “Board”) of Sportsman’s Warehouse Holdings, Inc. (the “Company”) approved amending and restating the Company’s Amended and Restated 2019 Performance Incentive Plan (the “Amended 2019 Plan”), subject to stockholder approval of the amendments to the Amended 2019 Plan. As disclosed in
and the related information in Exhibit 99.1 attached hereto shall not be deemed "filed" for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the "Exchange Act"), or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section and shall not be incorporated by reference into any filing of the Company under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or the Exchange Act, regardless of any general incorporation language in such filing, except as shall be expressly set forth by speci…
and the related information in Exhibit 99.1 attached hereto shall not be deemed "filed" for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the "Exchange Act"), or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section and shall not be incorporated by reference into any filing of the Company under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or the Exchange Act, regardless of any general incorporation language in such filing, except as shall be expressly set forth by speci…
and the related information in Exhibit 99.1 attached hereto shall not be deemed "filed" for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the "Exchange Act"), or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section and shall not be incorporated by reference into any filing of the Company under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or the Exchange Act, regardless of any general incorporation language in such filing, except as shall be expressly set forth by speci…
“Adjusted EBITDA to be in the range of $30 million to $36 million.”
“Anticipates adjusted EBITDA to be in the range of $22 million to $26 million.”