Sportsman's Warehouse Holdings Inc (SPWH)

NASDAQConsumer DiscretionarySpecialty RetailSnapshot 2026-10-23

$1.07-4.46%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Sportsman's Warehouse Holdings Inc’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

Comparable estimates unavailable

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

A matching fiscal period and sufficient coverage are required.

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least five analysts and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
FY 2026 · Q3
Revenue	—	331.41M
EPS	—	0.09
FY 2026 · Annual
Revenue	—	1.22B
EPS	—	-0.33
Capital expenditure	$20M–$25M	—
Comparable sales growth	-1%–2%	—
EBITDA	$30M–$36Mnon-GAAP	—
FY 2027 · Annual
Revenue	—	1.23B
EPS	—	-0.22

What the Thesis Depends On

4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Achieve adjusted EBITDA of $30M-$36M for 2026	Sportsman's Warehouse aims for $30M-$36M adjusted EBITDA in 2026.	Intact	adjusted EBITDA falls below $30 million in FY26	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Management consistently reiterates adjusted EBITDA guidance of $30 million to $36 million for fiscal 2026. Adjusted EBITDA improved slightly from negative in early 2026 to positive $8.7 million in 2026-Q3, showing progress but still below full-year target range, indicating limited progress so far. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Maintain CAPEX guidance of $20M-$25M for 2026	A supporting condition in Sportsman's Warehouse Holdings Inc's published investment case. The stated target is 20 to 25 million USD.	Intact	CAPEX exceeds $25 million or falls below $20 million in FY26	Capital expenditures: $3.461M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: 20 to 25 million USD. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Sep 1, 20263,461,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Aug 1, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q2. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Management consistently reiterates capital expenditure guidance of $20 million to $25 million for 2026, focused on technology and store maintenance. The guidance has remained stable with no reported deviations, indicating disciplined capital allocation. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Improve free cash flow to $7.6M for 2026	Free cash flow target is $7.6M.	Intact	free cash flow falls below $7.6 million in FY26	Free cash flow: $-17.54M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=7.6 million USD. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Sep 1, 2026-17,540,000 USD · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Aug 1, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q2. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Stabilize revenue near $1.2 billion in 2026-2027	A primary condition in Sportsman's Warehouse Holdings Inc's published investment case. The stated target is ~1.2 billion USD.	Intact	revenue falls below $1.15 billion in FY26	Revenue: $295.583M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: ~1.2 billion USD. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Sep 1, 2026295,583,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Aug 1, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: f1845613-7add-4d94-9c87-c4ee2983baaf. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Management consistently reiterates adjusted EBITDA guidance of $30 million to $36 million for fiscal 2026. Adjusted EBITDA improved slightly from negative in early 2026 to positive $8.7 million in 2026-Q3, showing progress but still below full-year target range, indicating limited progress so far. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-01-31 · fmp

FY2028 EPS: comparable history unavailable.

FY2028 revenue: comparable history unavailable.

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2028 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-07-25	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-07-26	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-07-27	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-07-28	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-07-29	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-07-30	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-07-31	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-08-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-08-02	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-08-03	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
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2026-08-12	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
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2026-09-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
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2026-09-11	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
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2026-09-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
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2026-09-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-09-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
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2026-09-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-09-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-09-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
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2026-09-26	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-09-27	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-09-28	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-09-29	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-09-30	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-10-01	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-10-02	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-10-03	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-10-04	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-10-05	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-10-06	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-10-07	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-10-08	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-10-09	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-10-10	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-10-11	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-10-12	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-10-13	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-10-14	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-10-15	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-10-16	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-10-17	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-10-18	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-10-19	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-10-20	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-10-21	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-10-22	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-10-23	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2
2026-10-24	Unavailable	Unavailable	2 / 2

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	4	0	0
2026-06-01	3	0	0
2026-07-01	3	0	0
2026-08-01	3	0	0
2026-09-01	3	0	0
2026-10-01	3	0	0

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 3 Buy / Strong Buy · 0 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades0 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 0 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

Individual price-target observations are unavailable.

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Achieve adjusted EBITDA of $30M-$36M for 2026Direct metric needs a verified mapping
Maintain CAPEX guidance of $20M-$25M for 2026Capital expenditures: $3.461M
Improve free cash flow to $7.6M for 2026Free cash flow: $-17.54M
Stabilize revenue near $1.2 billion in 2026-2027Revenue: $295.583M

Next proof point

Dec 3, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.7%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-62.9%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Sportsman's Warehouse Holdings Inc outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This is a high-risk turnaround-style business, not a proven durable compounder: recent financial performance is weak and the company is loss-making. The three-to-six-month thesis is on watch, though it has not freshly broken; management is showing progress in its category-growth focus.

What's priced into Sportsman's Warehouse Holdings Inc

SPWH is described as cheap versus peers, but the valuation model has low confidence and its expectations gap is negative. The evidence also shows low valuation fragility, so there is no clear sign that the current setup depends on unusually fragile expectations.

What the fundamentals likely do

Over the multi-year view, continued growth in Hunting and Shooting Sports could support sales, while recent results remain weak and the company is loss-making. Inventory discipline has improved, but that priority is still marked behind; capital spending guidance is stable but its execution status is mixed. Near term, risk is high, and a guidance cut would be a meaningful setback despite guidance having been reaffirmed as of June 2, 2026.

What Sportsman's Warehouse Holdings Inc hinges on

The long-term thesis hinges on category growth continuing and translating into profitable growth, alongside stronger inventory discipline. Near term, reaffirmed guidance must hold; a cut would weaken the setup. Consumer Discretionary sector signals are another swing factor, though the evidence for their effect on SPWH is limited.