Sportsman's Warehouse Holdings Inc (SPWH)
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionarySpecialty RetailSnapshot 2026-09-09
$1.22-3.94%
Close 2026-09-09 · 1-day change
NASDAQConsumer DiscretionarySpecialty RetailSnapshot 2026-09-09
Intact: The reason to own it still holds.
Sportsman's Warehouse aims for $30M-$36M adjusted EBITDA in 2026. Free cash flow target is $7.6M. They plan to keep capital spending between $20M and $25M. Recent sales beats show some recovery signs.
The company is still losing money and faces consumer pressure. Revenue is expected to shrink about 4% next year. The stock has fallen over 20% from its high.
The market expects about 4% revenue decline next year. Our fair value is $5.35, close to the current price. The stock price reflects weak growth and ongoing losses.
Breaks if: adjusted EBITDA falls below $30 million in FY26
Breaks if: CAPEX exceeds $25 million or falls below $20 million in FY26
Breaks if: free cash flow falls below $7.6 million in FY26
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
This investment represents a turnaround story in the Consumer Discretionary sector. The current thesis state is cautious, as the company is navigating weak recent financial performance while trying to capitalize on growth in specific categories like Hunting and Shooting Sports.
The market appears to price SPWH as cheap compared to its peers, with an expectations gap indicating that investors may not fully anticipate the potential for recovery. The valuation reflects a justified stance, suggesting that while the stock is not fragile, it is sensitive to broader market movements.
Management is focused on driving growth and improving inventory management, but recent results show mixed progress. The company's financial performance has been weak, and while there is a low probability of missing expectations, the risk remains elevated due to past performance.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Mixed, the news cuts both ways. The company reported a Q2 earnings beat. Revenue was $295.6 million, matching analyst estimates. However, management warned that higher tariffs may pressure margins. They also guided full-year sales to be flat or slightly down. This suggests potential challenges ahead for revenue growth.
as of 2026-09-09
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Breaks if: revenue falls below $1.15 billion in FY26
The thesis hinges on several factors, including the company's ability to maintain guidance and manage inflation pressures. Additionally, the performance of sector leaders like AMZN and BABA could influence SPWH's trajectory, as their success may lift the entire Consumer Discretionary sector.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, SPWH's performance will depend on its execution of growth strategies and external economic conditions. Not investment advice.