SPS Commerce, Inc. (SPSC)
NASDAQInformation TechnologySoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-10-29
$82.99-3.25%
Close 2026-10-30 · 1-day change
NASDAQInformation TechnologySoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-10-29
Research Workspace
Put SPSC beside peers and holdings, graph the same metric, and keep your notes with the evidence.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Industries move in repeating boom-and-bust cycles. This shows where this stock’s industry sits in that cycle, stage by stage (recovery → expansion → supercycle → steady → deceleration → contraction), from its fundamentals (orders, revenue, capital spending), not the stock’s price.
A booming industry is a tailwind for the names in it; a contracting one is a headwind. Companies in the same industry tend to rise and fall together with the cycle, the way a tide lifts and lowers every boat in the harbor at once, so a large part of a stock’s swing can come from where its industry sits rather than from the company itself. It’s context for reading the company’s results, not a buy/sell call. Full explanation →
Application Software is in steady. Describes the industry's cycle state, not a call on this stock.
The stage band shows the industry’s cycle over the chart’s timeline (each color a stage); a ▼ marks a quarter its growth inflected down — amber is an unconfirmed watch, red is confirmed the next quarter. Use “Overlay cycle on chart” to tint the price chart by stage. The industry’s fundamentals, not a signal on this stock.
Primary pillar under pressure — Maintain or improve operating income near $24.6M: Operating income: $39.93M.
View ThesisRevenue growth is slowing — up about 10% over the past year and decelerating.
View GrowthRanks among the strongest in its industry on quality — around the top 18%.
View QualityManagement screens strong on capital allocation, earnings delivery, margins.
View ManagementExpectations look reasonable — what the market is pricing in sits in line with or below what analysts forecast.
View ValuationThis stock is highly volatile — it swings about 2% on a typical day and fell roughly 53% in its worst 12-month stretch.
View RiskSPSC’s thesis rests on steady revenue growth and earnings beats despite mixed earnings quality. Revenue growth eased to 4% in Q3 2026 from 6% in prior quarters. The latest quarter beat non-GAAP EPS consensus by 53%. SPSC trades at 19× P/E versus a 30× peer median. Expectations look modest versus our view, despite the Mania market-cycle label. The primary pillar is under pressure: operating income was $39.93M against a near-$24.6M benchmark. Our model puts the next-quarter miss probability near 19%. Peer multiples imply a price about 5% above where it trades; the thesis is on watch, and this read is provisional.
Trailing returns as of 2026-10-30. SPSC is total return (includes dividends); the S&P 500 benchmark is price return (the index excludes dividends).
Based on 12 analysts currently covering SPSC (as of Oct 2026).
Based on 4 Wall Street analysts offering 12-month price targets for SPSC in the last 4 months.
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| Compare | Company | Living FV | P/E | Revenue % | Quality |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPSC Selected company | Graph | Compare | Trend | Review | |
| Peer Add a competitor | Graph | Compare | Trend | Review | |
| Holding Compare a holding | Graph | Compare | Trend | Review |
Selected metric trend
Quarterly · checked companies · value or % of revenue
A consensus fair price across 12 valuation methods, at three horizons. As of 2026-10-29. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
A price-focused, side-by-side fair-value read versus Application Software — fair value, gap to price, and forward P/E.
Our valuation methods disagree too much on this name right now. Rather than print a number we don't believe, we're holding it back until they converge.
Compare the value case
Put SPSC next to peers and holdings, compare Living FV and multiples, then graph the driver behind the difference.
Acquisition talks could enhance growth and operational capabilities.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
End-of-day figures as of 2026-10-30. EPS is implied from price ÷ P/E. Not investment advice.
Current $82.99
The last 12 months of price, then the range of analyst 12-month targets from today’s $82.99.
Analyst ratings and price targets are third-party Wall Street estimates, not QuarterlyIQ’s view. Not investment advice.
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
Above average on quality vs scored peers
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
Earnings and guidance indicate potential revenue growth issues.
Advances: Expand AI capabilities with MAX launch
AI agent monetization aligns with expanding AI capabilities objective.
Exploring sale could unlock significant value and enhance growth.