Reading SPSC? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track SPSC free→Reading SPSC? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track SPSC free→NASDAQInformation TechnologySoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-06-15
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is neutral, and earnings quality is also neutral, indicating some uncertainty in profitability. Management's recent track record has been fairly steady, and the company has a capital-friendly approach. Risk is elevated, but the sector backdrop is a tailwind, with SPSC performing above typical compared to sector peers. Peer multiples imply a price about 27% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is fair. This assessment is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 7 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $55.20. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $55 SPSC trades at 14× p/e, below its 21× p/e peer median. Our $75 fair value sits above the price; high confidence. Analysts: $60–$75. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The price implies about 27% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about 15%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Information Technology names rated neutral grew net income 54% of the time over the next year (vs 68% for the rest of the cohort, n=3704).
Over the trailing year it converted 2.14x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Information Technology names rated neutral grew net income 62% of the time over the next year (vs 58% for the rest of the cohort, n=2831).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, Fed net liquidity, long-term interest rates.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $1.08 → $1.08 (+0.0% / 30d). 2 raised, 8 cut, 11 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 25% of analysts rate Buy.
0 positive, 0 negative / 30d.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$153.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$458.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $6,498.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-15
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: This would signal a slowdown in growth after a solid Q1. It may raise concerns about demand.
Confirms:Q2 2026 revenue reported below $194.5 million.
Disproves:Q2 2026 revenue meets or exceeds $196.5 million.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for SPSC yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. As previously disclosed, on February 10, 2026, Kimberly Nelson, the former Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer of the Company, provided the Company with six months’ notice of her intent to retire from the Company. Also as previously disclosed, upon Ms. Nelson’s successor, Joseph Del Preto, assuming the role of Executive Vice President an…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
$60.00 – $75.00 (median $60.00) · 5 analysts · as of 2026-05-01
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Cheaper than its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Application Software.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
SPSC SPS Commerce, Inc. | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 94 of 100 | fair | elevated |
ORCL Oracle Corporation | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 66 of 100 | expensive | elevated |
PLTR Palantir Technologies | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 82 of 100 | expensive | elevated |
SAP SAP SE | — | — | elevated |
APP AppLovin | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 60 of 100 | expensive | elevated |
6 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Information Technology names rated neutral grew net income 64% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=1040).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
via XLK
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Focus on driving revenue growth through core business expansion and cross-selling.
Stated in 4 of last 4 quarters. Revenue grew from $181.5M in 2025-Q1 to $192.1M in 2026-Q1, reflecting a 6% increase. The company is delivering on its revenue growth priority through core business expansion and cross-selling initiatives.
“CEO: 'SPS Commerce delivered a solid performance this quarter, led by growth of our core business.'”
“CEO: 'We are focused on increasing revenue growth through strategic initiatives.'”
“CEO: 'Our revenue growth remains a top priority as we expand our market presence.'”
“CEO: 'We continue to prioritize revenue growth through our core business strategies.'”
Focus on improving operating income through margin expansion and cost efficiencies.
Stated in 4 of last 4 quarters. Operating income decreased from $25.96M in 2025-Q1 to $24.56M in 2026-Q1, indicating limited progress. Despite the focus on margin expansion and cost efficiencies, the trajectory shows a decline in operating income.
Aim to boost cash flow from operations through disciplined capital allocation.
Stated in 4 of last 4 quarters. Cash from operations increased from $39.98M in 2025-Q1 to $55.63M in 2026-Q1, showing a positive trajectory. The company is delivering on its priority to boost cash flow through disciplined capital allocation.
Why it matters: If adjusted EBITDA is under $60.9 million, it may show operational issues. This could hurt margins.
Confirms:Adjusted EBITDA was below $60.9 million for Q2.
Disproves:Adjusted EBITDA was $62.4 million or more for Q2.
Why it matters: Good AI use can help keep customers and attract new ones. This can increase revenue.
Confirms:Customer growth reported above 5% in the next quarter.
Disproves:Customer growth reported below 3% in the next quarter.
Why it matters: Better operating income shows that management is working to make more money. This could make investors feel more positive.
Confirms:Operating income increases from $24.6M in Q1 to above $25.0M in Q2.
Disproves:Operating income remains at or below $24.6M in Q2.
Why it matters: Strong cash flow growth supports ongoing investments and growth initiatives. It reflects financial health.
Confirms:Cash from operations reported above $66.7M in Q2, which is 20% growth year over year.
Disproves:Cash from operations reported below $66.7M in Q2.
Why it matters: A lower net income may mean higher costs or less demand. This can hurt investor confidence.
Confirms:Net income per share reported below $0.53.
Disproves:Net income per share meets or exceeds $0.56.
Why it matters: More share buybacks show that management trusts the stock. It also shows they want to return value.
Confirms:Total share buybacks are over $200 million by December 2026.
Disproves:Total share buybacks are under $100 million.
Why it matters: The new CFO may bring changes that affect financial strategy. This could influence investor sentiment.
Confirms one read:Good financial performance was reported in the next quarter after the CFO change.
Confirms the other:Bad financial performance was reported in the next quarter after the CFO change.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On April 30, 2026 , SPS Commerce, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release disclosing its results of operations and financial condition for our first quarter ended March 31, 2026. A copy of the press release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1. Cautionary Statement Regarding Forward-Looking Information Certain statements in this Current Report on Form 8-K may contain forward-looking statements within the meaning of the safe harbor provisions un…
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. In connection with the preparation of the proxy statement for the 2026 annual meeting of stockholders of SPS Commerce, Inc. (the “Company”), the Compensation & Talent Committee (the “Committee”) of the Board of Directors reviewed the differing provisions related to the treatment of outstanding performance stock units (“PSUs”) in connection with a change…
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. Appointment of new Chief Financial Officer On February 10, 2026 , the Company’s board of directors (the “Board”) appointed Joseph Del Preto as the Company’s Executive Vice President & Chief Financial Officer, effective March 16, 2026 (the “Transition Date”), succeeding Kimberly Nelson, who announced her retirement as Executive Vice President & Chief Fina…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On February 12, 2026 , SPS Commerce, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release disclosing its results of operations and financial condition for our fourth quarter and year ended December 31, 2025. A copy of the press release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1.
“CFO: 'We are focused on driving margin expansion through operating leverage and AI-driven efficiencies.'”
“CFO: 'Enhancing operating income remains a key focus through cost management.'”
“CFO: 'We aim to improve operating income by optimizing our cost structure.'”
“CFO: 'Operating income enhancement is a priority through strategic cost initiatives.'”
“CFO: 'With disciplined capital allocation, SPS is well positioned to deliver balanced growth.'”
“CFO: 'Increasing cash from operations is a key focus through strategic capital management.'”
“CFO: 'We are committed to enhancing cash flow through disciplined capital allocation.'”
“CFO: 'Boosting cash from operations remains a priority through efficient capital use.'”