SPS Commerce, Inc. (SPSC)

Q: What's priced into SPS Commerce, Inc. (SPSC) stock?

The valuation model describes SPSC as cheap versus peers, with a small expectations gap and low fragility. In plain terms, the current setup does not appear to rely on unusually high expectations, though overall valuation evidence is neutral and model confidence is high.

Q: What does the SPS Commerce, Inc. (SPSC) outlook hinge on?

Over the next 1 to 3 years, the thesis depends on continued revenue growth and whether the MAX AI product develops beyond early beta-user interest into measurable financial results. Near-term sector support could improve if the Federal Reserve cuts rates or major software companies keep raising guidance; missed results or lower guidance from those companies could weaken that support.

NASDAQInformation TechnologySoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-10-23

$92.63+0.75%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge SPS Commerce, Inc.’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

+0.0%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

5.33 → 5.33 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 8 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 24, 2026 to Oct 24, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 8 to 8; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
FY 2026 · Q3
Revenue	$196.3M–$198.3M	—
EBITDA	$67.4M–$69.4Mnon-GAAP	—
FY 2026 · Q4
Revenue	—	203.4M
EPS	—	1.314
FY 2026 · Annual
Revenue	$788.4M–$793.4M	790.55M
EPS	—	4.904
EBITDA	$264.6M–$269.1Mnon-GAAP	—
FY 2027 · Annual
Revenue	—	840.13M
EPS	—	5.326

What the Thesis Depends On

4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Increase cash from operations to at least $55M	Cash from operations rose from $40M to $56M in one year.	Intact	Cash from operations falls below $55M next year	Cash from operations: $66.03M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $55M. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 30, 202666,030,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2026-Q2. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Cash from operating activities increased from $45.9 million in 2025-Q4 to $55.6 million in 2026-Q2, showing growth in operating cash flow. This trend aligns with management's stated focus on increasing cash from operations. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Maintain or improve operating income near $24.6M	A primary condition in SPS Commerce, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >=$24.5M.	Under Pressure	Operating income falls below $24.5M next year	Operating income: $8.413M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=$24.5M. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 30, 20268,413,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: ab53f53d-567c-4c46-95a1-009b69933738. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Sustain revenue growth near 6% annually	A primary condition in SPS Commerce, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >=6% YoY.	Intact	YoY revenue growth falls below ~6% next year	Revenue growth: 5.56% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=6% YoY. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 30, 20265.557631 percent · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: ab53f53d-567c-4c46-95a1-009b69933738. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 3 of last 3 quarters. Revenue grew from $181.5 million in 2025-Q1 to $192.1 million in 2026-Q1 and further to $197.8 million in 2026-Q2, representing consistent 6% year-over-year growth. Management's focus on revenue growth is delivering steadily as reflected in the quarterly financials. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026
Maintain valuation discount vs peers (PE ~15.6 vs 38)	A supporting condition in SPS Commerce, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is PE <= 20.	Intact	PE rises above 20 without earnings growth	P/E (TTM): 21.85x As of 2026-10-23; trailing twelve months. The target timing and basis require a separate assessment. Market data as of Oct 23, 202621.8467 ratio · calculatedLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · TTM valuation Period ending Oct 23, 2026 Source: mart.stock_valuation_daily. Reference: SPSC:2026-10-23. Source status: canonical calculation. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$5.33

$5.21 → $5.33 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$0.84B

$0.85B → $0.84B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$5.21	$851,034,520	12 / 12
2026-07-25	$5.21	$851,034,520	12 / 12
2026-07-26	$5.21	$851,034,520	12 / 12
2026-07-27	$5.21	$851,034,520	12 / 12
2026-07-28	$5.21	$851,034,520	12 / 12
2026-07-29	$5.20	$850,308,678	8 / 9
2026-07-30	$5.20	$850,307,410	12 / 12
2026-07-31	$5.20	$850,307,410	12 / 12
2026-08-01	$5.20	$850,308,678	8 / 9
2026-08-02	$5.23	$846,745,830	11 / 12
2026-08-03	$5.31	$841,236,080	12 / 12
2026-08-04	$5.30	$841,272,284	8 / 9
2026-08-05	$5.33	$840,118,300	12 / 12
2026-08-06	$5.33	$840,118,300	12 / 12
2026-08-08	$5.33	$840,115,860	12 / 12
2026-08-09	$5.33	$840,115,860	12 / 12
2026-08-10	$5.33	$840,115,860	12 / 12
2026-08-12	$5.30	$841,272,284	8 / 9
2026-08-13	$5.33	$840,115,860	12 / 12
2026-08-14	$5.30	$841,272,284	8 / 9
2026-08-15	$5.30	$841,272,284	8 / 9
2026-08-16	$5.30	$841,272,284	8 / 9
2026-08-17	$5.30	$841,272,284	8 / 9
2026-08-18	$5.30	$841,272,284	8 / 9
2026-08-19	$5.30	$841,272,284	8 / 9
2026-08-20	$5.33	$840,115,854	8 / 9
2026-08-21	$5.33	$840,115,854	8 / 9
2026-08-22	$5.33	$840,115,854	8 / 9
2026-08-23	$5.33	$840,115,854	8 / 9
2026-08-24	$5.33	$840,115,854	8 / 9
2026-08-25	$5.33	$840,115,854	8 / 9
2026-08-26	$5.33	$840,115,854	8 / 9
2026-08-27	$5.33	$840,115,854	8 / 9
2026-08-28	$5.33	$840,115,854	8 / 9
2026-08-29	$5.33	$840,115,854	8 / 9
2026-08-30	$5.33	$840,115,854	8 / 9
2026-08-31	$5.33	$840,115,854	8 / 9
2026-09-01	$5.33	$840,115,854	8 / 9
2026-09-02	$5.33	$840,115,854	8 / 9
2026-09-03	$5.33	$840,115,854	8 / 9
2026-09-04	$5.33	$840,115,854	8 / 9
2026-09-05	$5.33	$840,115,854	8 / 9
2026-09-06	$5.33	$840,115,854	8 / 9
2026-09-07	$5.33	$840,115,854	8 / 9
2026-09-08	$5.33	$840,115,854	8 / 9
2026-09-09	$5.33	$840,115,854	8 / 9
2026-09-10	$5.33	$840,115,854	8 / 9
2026-09-11	$5.33	$840,115,854	8 / 9
2026-09-12	$5.33	$840,115,854	8 / 9
2026-09-13	$5.33	$840,115,854	8 / 9
2026-09-14	$5.33	$840,115,854	8 / 9
2026-09-15	$5.33	$840,115,854	8 / 9
2026-09-16	$5.33	$840,115,854	8 / 9
2026-09-17	$5.33	$840,115,854	8 / 9
2026-09-18	$5.33	$840,115,854	8 / 9
2026-09-19	$5.33	$840,115,854	8 / 9
2026-09-20	$5.33	$840,115,854	8 / 9
2026-09-21	$5.33	$840,115,854	8 / 9
2026-09-22	$5.33	$840,115,854	8 / 9
2026-09-23	$5.33	$840,115,854	8 / 9
2026-09-24	$5.33	$840,115,854	8 / 9
2026-09-25	$5.33	$840,115,854	8 / 9
2026-09-26	$5.33	$840,115,854	8 / 9
2026-09-27	$5.33	$840,115,854	8 / 9
2026-09-28	$5.33	$840,115,854	8 / 9
2026-09-29	$5.33	$840,115,854	8 / 9
2026-09-30	$5.33	$840,115,854	8 / 9
2026-10-01	$5.33	$840,115,854	8 / 9
2026-10-02	$5.33	$840,115,854	8 / 9
2026-10-03	$5.33	$840,115,854	8 / 9
2026-10-04	$5.33	$840,115,854	8 / 9
2026-10-05	$5.33	$840,115,854	8 / 9
2026-10-06	$5.33	$840,115,854	8 / 9
2026-10-07	$5.33	$840,115,854	8 / 9
2026-10-08	$5.33	$840,115,854	8 / 9
2026-10-09	$5.33	$840,115,854	8 / 9
2026-10-10	$5.33	$840,115,854	8 / 9
2026-10-11	$5.33	$840,115,854	8 / 9
2026-10-12	$5.33	$840,115,854	8 / 9
2026-10-13	$5.33	$840,115,854	8 / 9
2026-10-14	$5.33	$840,115,854	8 / 9
2026-10-15	$5.33	$840,115,854	8 / 9
2026-10-16	$5.33	$840,115,854	8 / 9
2026-10-17	$5.33	$840,115,854	8 / 9
2026-10-18	$5.33	$840,115,854	8 / 9
2026-10-19	$5.33	$840,115,854	8 / 9
2026-10-20	$5.33	$840,115,854	8 / 9
2026-10-21	$5.33	$840,115,854	8 / 9
2026-10-22	$5.33	$840,126,838	8 / 9
2026-10-23	$5.33	$840,126,838	8 / 9
2026-10-24	$5.33	$840,126,838	8 / 9

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	3	9	0
2026-06-01	3	9	0
2026-07-01	3	9	1
2026-08-01	3	8	1
2026-09-01	3	8	1
2026-10-01	3	8	1

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 3 Buy / Strong Buy · 8 Hold · 1 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades2 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 2 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

Stifel NicolausOct 14 · prior Jul 31

$70.00 → $85.00+21.4%

$0$46.75$93.50

1 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Increase cash from operations to at least $55MCash from operations: $66.03M
Maintain or improve operating income near $24.6MPublished status: Under Pressure
Sustain revenue growth near 6% annuallyRevenue growth: 5.56%
Maintain valuation discount vs peers (PE ~15.6 vs 38)P/E (TTM): 21.85x

Next proof point

Oct 29, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.7%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-55.6%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

SPS Commerce, Inc. outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

SPSC is a steady-growth software business with some traits of a durable compounder, though the evidence does not establish that as a firm pattern. The long-term thesis is intact, but its signal recently shifted from mildly favorable to mixed.

What's priced into SPS Commerce, Inc.

The valuation model describes SPSC as cheap versus peers, with a small expectations gap and low fragility. In plain terms, the current setup does not appear to rely on unusually high expectations, though overall valuation evidence is neutral and model confidence is high.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near term, revenue growth has been steady at 6% year over year, and adjusted EBITDA margin reached 34% in 2026-Q2, showing progress on management’s stated priorities. Recent earnings beats support the thesis, but risk remains high: peers have missed recently, and SPSC has had a deep miss in its history.

What SPS Commerce, Inc. hinges on

Over the next 1 to 3 years, the thesis depends on continued revenue growth and whether the MAX AI product develops beyond early beta-user interest into measurable financial results. Near-term sector support could improve if the Federal Reserve cuts rates or major software companies keep raising guidance; missed results or lower guidance from those companies could weaken that support.

Bottom line

The 1 to 3 year view remains intact, supported by steady growth and margin progress, but high risk and mixed signals call for attention to execution and sector results. Not investment advice.

Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
FY 2026 · Q3
Revenue	$196.3M–$198.3M	—
EBITDA	$67.4M–$69.4Mnon-GAAP	—
FY 2026 · Q4
Revenue	—	203.4M
EPS	—	1.314
FY 2026 · Annual
Revenue	$788.4M–$793.4M	790.55M
EPS	—	4.904
EBITDA	$264.6M–$269.1Mnon-GAAP	—
FY 2027 · Annual
Revenue	—	840.13M
EPS	—	5.326

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$5.33

$5.21 → $5.33 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$0.84B

$0.85B → $0.84B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$5.21	$851,034,520	12 / 12
2026-07-25	$5.21	$851,034,520	12 / 12
2026-07-26	$5.21	$851,034,520	12 / 12
2026-07-27	$5.21	$851,034,520	12 / 12
2026-07-28	$5.21	$851,034,520	12 / 12
2026-07-29	$5.20	$850,308,678	8 / 9
2026-07-30	$5.20	$850,307,410	12 / 12
2026-07-31	$5.20	$850,307,410	12 / 12
2026-08-01	$5.20	$850,308,678	8 / 9
2026-08-02	$5.23	$846,745,830	11 / 12
2026-08-03	$5.31	$841,236,080	12 / 12
2026-08-04	$5.30	$841,272,284	8 / 9
2026-08-05	$5.33	$840,118,300	12 / 12
2026-08-06	$5.33	$840,118,300	12 / 12
2026-08-08	$5.33	$840,115,860	12 / 12
2026-08-09	$5.33	$840,115,860	12 / 12
2026-08-10	$5.33	$840,115,860	12 / 12
2026-08-12	$5.30	$841,272,284	8 / 9
2026-08-13	$5.33	$840,115,860	12 / 12
2026-08-14	$5.30	$841,272,284	8 / 9
2026-08-15	$5.30	$841,272,284	8 / 9
2026-08-16	$5.30	$841,272,284	8 / 9
2026-08-17	$5.30	$841,272,284	8 / 9
2026-08-18	$5.30	$841,272,284	8 / 9
2026-08-19	$5.30	$841,272,284	8 / 9
2026-08-20	$5.33	$840,115,854	8 / 9
2026-08-21	$5.33	$840,115,854	8 / 9
2026-08-22	$5.33	$840,115,854	8 / 9
2026-08-23	$5.33	$840,115,854	8 / 9
2026-08-24	$5.33	$840,115,854	8 / 9
2026-08-25	$5.33	$840,115,854	8 / 9
2026-08-26	$5.33	$840,115,854	8 / 9
2026-08-27	$5.33	$840,115,854	8 / 9
2026-08-28	$5.33	$840,115,854	8 / 9
2026-08-29	$5.33	$840,115,854	8 / 9
2026-08-30	$5.33	$840,115,854	8 / 9
2026-08-31	$5.33	$840,115,854	8 / 9
2026-09-01	$5.33	$840,115,854	8 / 9
2026-09-02	$5.33	$840,115,854	8 / 9
2026-09-03	$5.33	$840,115,854	8 / 9
2026-09-04	$5.33	$840,115,854	8 / 9
2026-09-05	$5.33	$840,115,854	8 / 9
2026-09-06	$5.33	$840,115,854	8 / 9
2026-09-07	$5.33	$840,115,854	8 / 9
2026-09-08	$5.33	$840,115,854	8 / 9
2026-09-09	$5.33	$840,115,854	8 / 9
2026-09-10	$5.33	$840,115,854	8 / 9
2026-09-11	$5.33	$840,115,854	8 / 9
2026-09-12	$5.33	$840,115,854	8 / 9
2026-09-13	$5.33	$840,115,854	8 / 9
2026-09-14	$5.33	$840,115,854	8 / 9
2026-09-15	$5.33	$840,115,854	8 / 9
2026-09-16	$5.33	$840,115,854	8 / 9
2026-09-17	$5.33	$840,115,854	8 / 9
2026-09-18	$5.33	$840,115,854	8 / 9
2026-09-19	$5.33	$840,115,854	8 / 9
2026-09-20	$5.33	$840,115,854	8 / 9
2026-09-21	$5.33	$840,115,854	8 / 9
2026-09-22	$5.33	$840,115,854	8 / 9
2026-09-23	$5.33	$840,115,854	8 / 9
2026-09-24	$5.33	$840,115,854	8 / 9
2026-09-25	$5.33	$840,115,854	8 / 9
2026-09-26	$5.33	$840,115,854	8 / 9
2026-09-27	$5.33	$840,115,854	8 / 9
2026-09-28	$5.33	$840,115,854	8 / 9
2026-09-29	$5.33	$840,115,854	8 / 9
2026-09-30	$5.33	$840,115,854	8 / 9
2026-10-01	$5.33	$840,115,854	8 / 9
2026-10-02	$5.33	$840,115,854	8 / 9
2026-10-03	$5.33	$840,115,854	8 / 9
2026-10-04	$5.33	$840,115,854	8 / 9
2026-10-05	$5.33	$840,115,854	8 / 9
2026-10-06	$5.33	$840,115,854	8 / 9
2026-10-07	$5.33	$840,115,854	8 / 9
2026-10-08	$5.33	$840,115,854	8 / 9
2026-10-09	$5.33	$840,115,854	8 / 9
2026-10-10	$5.33	$840,115,854	8 / 9
2026-10-11	$5.33	$840,115,854	8 / 9
2026-10-12	$5.33	$840,115,854	8 / 9
2026-10-13	$5.33	$840,115,854	8 / 9
2026-10-14	$5.33	$840,115,854	8 / 9
2026-10-15	$5.33	$840,115,854	8 / 9
2026-10-16	$5.33	$840,115,854	8 / 9
2026-10-17	$5.33	$840,115,854	8 / 9
2026-10-18	$5.33	$840,115,854	8 / 9
2026-10-19	$5.33	$840,115,854	8 / 9
2026-10-20	$5.33	$840,115,854	8 / 9
2026-10-21	$5.33	$840,115,854	8 / 9
2026-10-22	$5.33	$840,126,838	8 / 9
2026-10-23	$5.33	$840,126,838	8 / 9
2026-10-24	$5.33	$840,126,838	8 / 9

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings