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AppLovin (APP)
NASDAQInformation TechnologyAdvertising AgenciesSnapshot 2026-06-16
Intact
$520.86+4.85%
Close 2026-06-15 · 1-day change
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
The bottom line
Recent financial performance is strong. Earnings quality is fragile, meaning profits lack cash support. Management's recent track record has been steady. Risk is elevated, but the sector backdrop is a tailwind. Compared with sector peers, APP is typical in valuation. Peer multiples imply a price about 111% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is expensive, growth-justified. This assessment is provisional.
as of 2026-06-16
Quick facts
- Exchange
- NASDAQ
- Sector
- Information Technology
- Industry
- Advertising Agencies
- Market cap
- $166.88B
- Employees
- 898
- IPO date
- 2021-03-02
- Next earnings
- 2026-08-05
Price
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Adjusted daily closes (split & dividend). Scroll over the chart to zoom; click a range to reset.
EarningsMaterial event
What's priced in
(what the market already expects)What it's worth (estimated)
A consensus fair price across 7 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $520.86. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
12-month· primaryexpensive
$244.10consensus
Range $210.79 – $374.95
vs price: +111% above
Method agreement — · 7 methods
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
3-yearinexpensive
$1250.87consensus
Range $775.17 – $1565.54
vs price: -59% below
Method agreement — · 5 methods
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
5-yearinexpensive
How much to trust our fair value
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
Durable premiumlow confidence
At $521 the market pays 45× p/e — above the 21× p/e peer median but in line with its own 42× history. That premium reflects a durable franchise our peer-anchored $254 fair value understates; treat the 'expensive vs peers' read with low confidence. Analysts: $340–$775. Not investment advice.
Multiple (P/E)
44.9x
peer 21.2x · own history 42.1x
Premium
2.1x peer
1.1x its own history
Growth the price needs
105%
our forecast 48%
Our fair value
$253.56
range $224.17 – $432.39
Analyst range(a guide on our number, not a target)Our number is below the analyst range
How this stock is priced
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
expensiveexpensive — growth-justified12-month view
What's priced inUnjustified
The market is pricing in roughly 105% near-term growth, well above our forecast of about 48%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
High fragilityrisk posture, not a price call
Flags: expensive valuation, weak execution quality, a turbulent sector regime (Heating).
Historical context
For similar setups historically (n=889): about 49% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 85% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
How strong is the business
(quality & execution)Factor signals
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Recent financial performance
strongOperating income rose in 3 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Information Technology names rated strong grew net income 73% of the time over the next year (vs 58% for the rest of the cohort, n=2777).
87th pctl · Information Technology
Earnings quality
fragileOver the trailing year it converted 1.12x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Information Technology names rated fragile grew net income 46% of the time over the next year (vs 65% for the rest of the cohort, n=2129).
25th pctl · Information Technology
Macro sensitivity
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
- the broad stock market: This stock moves with the broad market (high beta).
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity, real (inflation-adjusted) rates.
Management & capital allocation
Earnings setup & market context
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
Earnings setup · pre-print positioning
forward-looking
Strongly bullish17 analysts, 88% Buyfor period ending 2026-06-30
Why this setup
Consensus revisions
EPS estimate $3.74 → $3.75 (+0.4% / 30d). 12 raised, 4 cut, 17 covering analysts.
Rating actions
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 2 maintained. 88% of analysts rate Buy.
Price target activity
1 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 51.3% above current price.
Market and fundamentals agree. Analysts are positioned bullishly on a fundamentally strong name.
Sector context
Intermediate · WeeklyManagement scorecard
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
Overall: strong
- Capital allocation
- strong
- Earnings discipline
- strong
- Margin discipline
- neutral
- Balance sheet
- strong
- Post-call reaction
- strong
How bumpy is the path
(risk while you hold it)Risk: how this stock moves
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
Intermediate · WeeklyLong-term · 1–3 yr
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$297.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$659.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $4,999.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
elevatedas of 2026-06-16
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
What would change the read
(catalysts & re-read triggers)What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Short-term · Daily
- No material changes since the prior snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
What to watch next
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Short-term · Daily
- UpsideMedium confidenceWeeksactive 4d
Watch for the closing of the GQG share purchase
Why it matters: This deal could help AppLovin's shareholders. It shows trust from a big investor.
What confirms / what disproves
Confirms:The deal closes on August 21, 2023. This confirms GQG's investment.
Disproves:The deal does not close as planned. This shows possible investor doubt.
Material event
as of 2026-06-15
News catalysts
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for APP yet.
This sector is also watching
- Watch for revenue growth in IT sector dropping below median
- Watch for FOMC decisions impacting tech investment
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Intermediate · Weekly
Upside triggers
- If the Fed starts cutting rates from the current 3.62%, that would be a tailwind for APP and other Tech names, since rate-sensitive parts of the market tend to rally when the Fed eases.
- If sector bellwethers like NVDA, AMD, and AVGO keep beating earnings and guiding higher, the Tech sector momentum should keep lifting APP and other Tech names. Worth watching these names for early signals.
- If APP raises forward guidance on the next earnings call (currently NEW as of 2026-05-06), that's a momentum boost. Street estimates typically follow guidance up and the stock tends to re-rate higher.
Downside triggers
- If APP cuts guidance on the next call (currently NEW as of 2026-05-06), that's a meaningful negative. The Street tends to walk down estimates and the stock usually takes a leg lower.
- If sector bellwethers like NVDA, AMD, and AVGO start missing or guiding lower, the Tech tailwind helping APP and other Tech names could fade. Watch these names for early warning.
Recent events
(material 8-K / filing activity)Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-05-061mo agoItem 2.02
of this current report on Form 8-K and Exhibit 99.1 attached hereto shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”) or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that section, nor shall it be deemed incorporated by reference in any filing under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or the Exchange Act, regardless of any general incorporation language in such filing.
Earnings preannouncementneutral
Score history
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
About the same as last weeklatest as of 2026-06-17
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.