AppLovin (APP)

NASDAQInformation TechnologySoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-10-15

$266.13-4.71%

Close 2026-10-16 · 1-day change

Read the published Living FV report summary

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 15, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge AppLovin’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

-0.4%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

20.14 → 20.06 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 21 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 15, 2026 to Oct 15, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 21 to 21; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Living FV™

Living Fair Value by QuarterlyIQ

A valuation that evolves as the business changes.

A published Living FV snapshot is not available yet. The valuation workflow remains discoverable; a market target cannot supply the missing evidence.

View Living FV report and workflow

What the Thesis Depends On

Three key conditions need to be met for the investment thesis to play out.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Adjusted EBITDA margin near 84.5% next quarter	AppLovin grows revenue about 44% yearly, hitting $1.93 billion next quarter.	Broken	EBITDA margin falls below 82% next quarter	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 6 of last 6 quarters. Adjusted EBITDA margin improved from 68% in 2025-Q1 to 84% in 2026-Q2. Guidance for Q3 2026 projects margin at 83%. Management is delivering sustained high profitability consistent with stated goals. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026
Smooth executive transitions maintain leadership stability	A supporting condition in AppLovin's published investment case. The stated target is No major leadership disruptions.	Intact	Significant leadership departures or instability reported	0 major disruptions vs 0 allowed News shows legal/growth concerns but no leadership instability. April 2026 executive change was a smooth succession with named successors. Context reviewed through Oct 15, 2026Last status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 2 of last 6 quarters. Management disclosed executive retirements with successors named and consulting arrangements. While qualitative, the company has communicated active management of leadership transitions. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026
Revenue reaches about $1.93 billion next quarter	AppLovin grows revenue about 44% yearly, hitting $1.93 billion next quarter.	Intact	Revenue falls below $1,915 million next quarter	Revenue: $1.924B FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: ≈$1,930 million. The target does not explicitly identify fiscal versus calendar quarters. Source published Aug 5, 20261,923,686,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: eb60052e-d8ed-414a-8b5c-8bbc844671f2. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 6 of last 6 quarters. Revenue grew from $1.484B in 2025-Q1 to $1.924B in 2026-Q2, a 30% increase over six quarters. Guidance for Q3 2026 projects revenue between $2.055B and $2.085B. The trajectory is delivering consistent strong revenue growth as management has emphasized. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$20.06

$21.16 → $20.06 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$10.26B

$10.62B → $10.26B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$21.16	$10,618,637,340	26 / 31
2026-07-25	$21.16	$10,618,637,340	26 / 31
2026-07-26	$21.16	$10,618,637,340	26 / 31
2026-07-27	$21.57	$10,727,493,793	20 / 23
2026-07-28	$21.16	$10,618,637,340	26 / 31
2026-07-29	$21.16	$10,618,637,340	26 / 31
2026-07-30	$21.16	$10,618,637,340	26 / 31
2026-07-31	$21.57	$10,726,558,399	20 / 23
2026-08-01	$21.16	$10,617,701,950	26 / 31
2026-08-02	$21.16	$10,617,701,950	26 / 31
2026-08-03	$21.16	$10,617,701,950	26 / 31
2026-08-04	$21.16	$10,617,701,950	26 / 31
2026-08-05	$21.17	$10,617,711,630	25 / 31
2026-08-06	$21.17	$10,617,711,630	25 / 31
2026-08-07	$21.24	$10,629,362,518	19 / 23
2026-08-08	$20.70	$10,485,857,100	25 / 31
2026-08-09	$20.70	$10,485,857,100	25 / 31
2026-08-10	$21.24	$10,629,362,518	19 / 23
2026-08-11	$21.24	$10,629,362,518	19 / 23
2026-08-12	$20.54	$10,463,684,570	25 / 31
2026-08-13	$20.54	$10,463,684,570	25 / 31
2026-08-14	$21.24	$10,629,362,518	19 / 23
2026-08-15	$21.24	$10,629,362,518	19 / 23
2026-08-16	$21.24	$10,629,362,518	20 / 23
2026-08-17	$21.24	$10,629,362,518	20 / 23
2026-08-18	$21.24	$10,629,362,518	20 / 23
2026-08-19	$21.24	$10,629,362,518	20 / 23
2026-08-20	$20.52	$10,422,174,784	21 / 24
2026-08-21	$20.48	$10,429,862,694	21 / 24
2026-08-22	$20.48	$10,429,862,694	21 / 24
2026-08-23	$20.48	$10,429,862,694	21 / 24
2026-08-24	$20.48	$10,429,862,694	21 / 24
2026-08-25	$20.48	$10,429,862,694	21 / 24
2026-08-26	$20.48	$10,429,862,694	21 / 24
2026-08-27	$20.48	$10,429,862,694	21 / 24
2026-08-28	$20.48	$10,429,862,694	21 / 24
2026-08-29	$20.45	$10,425,423,984	21 / 24
2026-08-30	$20.45	$10,425,423,984	21 / 24
2026-08-31	$20.45	$10,425,423,984	21 / 24
2026-09-01	$20.45	$10,425,423,984	21 / 24
2026-09-02	$20.28	$10,387,217,533	21 / 24
2026-09-03	$20.26	$10,383,314,307	21 / 24
2026-09-04	$20.26	$10,363,804,452	21 / 24
2026-09-05	$20.26	$10,363,804,451	21 / 24
2026-09-06	$20.26	$10,363,804,451	21 / 24
2026-09-07	$20.26	$10,363,804,451	21 / 24
2026-09-08	$20.26	$10,363,804,451	21 / 24
2026-09-09	$20.17	$10,329,034,116	21 / 24
2026-09-10	$20.17	$10,329,034,116	21 / 24
2026-09-11	$20.17	$10,329,034,116	21 / 24
2026-09-12	$20.17	$10,329,034,116	21 / 24
2026-09-13	$20.17	$10,329,034,116	21 / 24
2026-09-14	$20.17	$10,329,034,116	21 / 24
2026-09-15	$20.14	$10,314,609,774	21 / 24
2026-09-16	$20.14	$10,314,609,774	21 / 24
2026-09-17	$20.14	$10,314,609,774	21 / 24
2026-09-18	$20.14	$10,314,609,774	21 / 24
2026-09-19	$20.14	$10,314,609,774	21 / 24
2026-09-20	$20.10	$10,297,867,838	21 / 24
2026-09-21	$20.10	$10,297,867,838	21 / 24
2026-09-22	$20.10	$10,297,867,838	21 / 24
2026-09-23	$20.10	$10,297,867,838	21 / 24
2026-09-24	$20.10	$10,297,867,838	21 / 24
2026-09-25	$20.10	$10,297,867,838	21 / 24
2026-09-26	$20.10	$10,297,867,838	21 / 24
2026-09-27	$20.10	$10,297,867,838	21 / 24
2026-09-28	$20.10	$10,297,867,838	21 / 24
2026-09-29	$20.10	$10,297,867,838	21 / 24
2026-09-30	$20.10	$10,297,867,838	21 / 24
2026-10-01	$20.10	$10,297,934,519	21 / 24
2026-10-02	$20.10	$10,297,934,519	21 / 24
2026-10-03	$20.10	$10,297,934,503	21 / 24
2026-10-04	$20.10	$10,297,934,503	21 / 24
2026-10-05	$20.10	$10,297,934,503	21 / 24
2026-10-06	$20.10	$10,297,934,503	21 / 24
2026-10-07	$20.10	$10,297,944,180	21 / 24
2026-10-08	$20.10	$10,297,942,935	21 / 24
2026-10-09	$20.05	$10,279,126,416	20 / 24
2026-10-10	$20.05	$10,279,126,416	20 / 24
2026-10-11	$20.05	$10,279,125,165	21 / 24
2026-10-12	$20.05	$10,279,125,165	21 / 24
2026-10-13	$20.06	$10,259,092,907	21 / 24
2026-10-14	$20.06	$10,259,092,907	21 / 24
2026-10-15	$20.06	$10,259,092,907	21 / 24

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold
2026-05-01	28	4
2026-06-01	29	4
2026-07-01	29	3
2026-08-01	29	7
2026-09-01	27	7
2026-10-01	27	6

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 27 Buy / Strong Buy · 6 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades6 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 16–Oct 15 · 6 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

WedbushOct 14 · prior Aug 6

$610.00 → $560.00-8.2%

Goldman SachsOct 14 · prior Aug 6

$465.00 → $400.00-14.0%

Morgan StanleyOct 13 · prior Sep 14

$450.00 → $400.00-11.1%

OppenheimerOct 12

$490.00New observation · no comparable prior

JefferiesOct 8

$375.00New observation · no comparable prior

$0$335.50$671.00

0 raises · 3 cuts · 0 unchanged · 2 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 16, 2026–Oct 15, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Adjusted EBITDA margin near 84.5% next quarterPublished status: Broken
Revenue reaches about $1.93 billion next quarterRevenue: $1.924B

Next proof point

Nov 4, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

2 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

2.3%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-64.3%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

AppLovin outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 10, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This is a long-term thesis on a growth-oriented tech company. APP is positioned as a durable compounder, with a focus on strong revenue growth and share repurchase programs, although it faces some execution risks.

What's priced into AppLovin

The market currently prices APP as cheap compared to its peers, with expectations that are somewhat lower than its recent performance. There is a low fragility tier, indicating that while execution quality is weak, it is not overly concerning in the current market regime.

What the fundamentals likely do

Management is on track to achieve strong revenue growth, with a significant increase in revenue over the past quarters. However, the high adjusted EBITDA margin has shown mixed results, and there is a low probability of missing guidance, although recent history shows potential for volatility.

What AppLovin hinges on

The thesis hinges on several factors, including potential interest rate cuts by the Fed, which could provide a tailwind for tech stocks like APP. Additionally, the performance of sector leaders like SAP, CRM, and NOW will be crucial for maintaining momentum in the tech sector.