NASDAQInformation TechnologySoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-08-31
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Create your account →Broken: Primary pillar broken — Adjusted EBITDA margin near 84.5% next quarter: Q3 FY26 EBITDA margin guidance 83.0% vs target 84.5%.
AppLovin grows revenue about 44% yearly, hitting $1.93 billion next quarter. Profit margins stay very high near 84.5%. The company keeps beating earnings estimates despite tough competition. New product launches and buybacks support future growth.
Competition pressure and insider selling may hurt growth and leadership. The recent guidance cut shows risks to revenue momentum. High valuation means any slowdown could cause a sharp share price drop.
The price is about 14% above our fair value near $467, reflecting strong revenue growth of 44%. Our fair value is 32% below the Street median, so the market partly prices in more optimism than we see.
Breaks if: EBITDA margin falls below 82% next quarter
Breaks if: Significant leadership departures or instability reported
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
This investment represents a durable compounder with a focus on consistent revenue growth and profitability. The current thesis state is intact, as recent financial performance remains strong relative to industry peers.
The market seems to have priced in a low level of fragility, as APP is considered cheap compared to its peers. However, there is an expectations gap indicating that the market may not fully recognize the potential for sustained strong performance.
Management has shown a commitment to achieving strong revenue growth and maintaining high profitability, with recent results reflecting this focus. However, there is a mixed outlook on the Adjusted EBITDA margin, which could impact overall performance.
The thesis hinges on the performance of sector bellwethers like SAP, CRM, and NOW, which could influence APP's momentum. Additionally, any changes in guidance from APP could significantly impact investor sentiment.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Yes, our read has weakened. The company faces challenges in achieving strong revenue growth. There is also a legal investigation that could impact investor confidence. These factors contribute to a less favorable outlook for the company.
as of 2026-08-31
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Ensure smooth leadership changes with named successors and consulting arrangements.
Stated as a priority in 2 of last 6 quarters. Management disclosed executive retirements with successors named and consulting arrangements. While qualitative, the company has communicated active management of leadership transitions.
“CTO and Chief Administrative & Legal Officer retiring with successors named and consulting arrangements”
“Management discussed executive transitions and leadership continuity plans”
Breaks if: Revenue falls below $1,915 million next quarter
Over the next 1 to 3 years, APP's performance will depend on its ability to navigate sector challenges while continuing to deliver on its growth and profitability goals. Not investment advice.
