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Track ADBE free→Adobe Inc. (ADBE)
NASDAQInformation TechnologySoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-06-16
Intact
$207.32+0.47%
Close 2026-06-16 · 1-day change
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
The bottom line
Recent financial performance is strong. Earnings quality is neutral. Management's recent track record has been unsteady, with frequent changes. Risk is elevated, but the sector backdrop is a tailwind. Peer multiples imply a price about 50% above where it trades (it looks cheap on this basis); the read is cheap, quality intact. ADBE hinges on whether it cuts guidance after recently raising it. It also depends on trends from sector bellwethers like SAP and CRM.
as of 2026-06-16
Quick facts
- Exchange
- NASDAQ
- Sector
- Information Technology
- Industry
- Software - Application
- Market cap
- $82.46B
- Employees
- 31,360
- IPO date
- 1986-08-20
- Next earnings
- —
Price
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Adjusted daily closes (split & dividend). Scroll over the chart to zoom; click a range to reset.
EarningsMaterial event
What's priced in
(what the market already expects)What it's worth (estimated)
A consensus fair price across 8 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $207.32. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
12-month· primaryinexpensive
$446.38consensus
Range $403.23 – $474.72
vs price: -54% below
Method agreement — · 8 methods
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
3-yearinexpensive
$682.33consensus
Range $584.32 – $827.29
vs price: -70% below
Method agreement — · 6 methods
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
5-yearinexpensive
How much to trust our fair value
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
Cheap vs peersmedium confidence
At $207 ADBE trades at 10× p/e, below its 21× p/e peer median. Our $456 fair value sits above the price; medium confidence. Analysts: $190–$447. Not investment advice.
Multiple (P/E)
9.7x
peer 21.0x · own history 25.5x
Premium
0.5x peer
0.4x its own history
Growth the price needs
-51%
our forecast 11%
Our fair value
$455.63
range $409.47 – $478.16
Analyst range(a guide on our number, not a target)Our number is in the analyst range
How this stock is priced
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
inexpensivecheap — quality intact12-month view
What's priced inJustified
The price implies about 51% below a flat-multiple fair value, below our forecast of about 11%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Low fragilityrisk posture, not a price call
Only weak execution quality — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack. Regime (Mania) does not concentrate fragility.
Historical context
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
How strong is the business
(quality & execution)Factor signals
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Recent financial performance
strongOperating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Information Technology names rated strong grew net income 73% of the time over the next year (vs 58% for the rest of the cohort, n=2777).
72nd pctl · Information Technology
Earnings quality
neutralOver the trailing year it converted 1.45x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Information Technology names rated neutral grew net income 62% of the time over the next year (vs 58% for the rest of the cohort, n=2831).
41st pctl · Information Technology
Macro sensitivity
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
- the broad stock market: This stock moves with the broad market (high beta).
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity, real (inflation-adjusted) rates.
Management & capital allocation
volatileEarnings setup & market context
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
Earnings setup · pre-print positioning
forward-looking
Neutral0 upgrades, 3 downgrades / 30d, 35% Buyfor period ending 2026-08-31
Why this setup
Consensus revisions
EPS estimate $5.77 → $5.77 (+0.0% / 30d). 1 raised, 1 cut, 29 covering analysts.
Rating actions
0 upgrades, 3 downgrades / 30d, 21 maintained. 35% of analysts rate Buy.
Price target activity
19 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 15.3% above current price.
Material events
0 positive, 0 negative / 30d.
Sector context
Intermediate · WeeklySector phase: information technology is in maturing (~0.2 years in phase).
Management scorecard
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
Overall: strong
- Capital allocation
- strong
- Earnings discipline
- strong
- Margin discipline
- strong
- Balance sheet
- neutral
- Guidance credibility
- neutral
How bumpy is the path
(risk while you hold it)Risk: how this stock moves
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
Intermediate · WeeklyLong-term · 1–3 yr
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$152.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$374.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $4,921.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
elevatedas of 2026-06-16
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
What would change the read
(catalysts & re-read triggers)What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Short-term · Daily
- No material changes since the prior snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
What to watch next
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
- UpsideHigh confidenceQuartersactive 11d
Watch for Q3 total revenue guidance between $6.67 billion and $6.72 billion
Why it matters: Meeting or exceeding this guidance shows strong demand and supports growth expectations.
What confirms / what disproves
Confirms:Q3 total revenue reported within the range of $6.67 billion to $6.72 billion.
Disproves:Q3 total revenue was below $6.67 billion.
Earnings call
News catalysts
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
- 2026-06-1622h agoYahoo! Finance
Threatens: Achieve revenue and EPS targets for FY2026
Friction post-results may hinder revenue and EPS targets.
ChallengesUnconfirmed report
This sector is also watching
- Watch for revenue growth in IT sector dropping below median
- Watch for FOMC decisions impacting tech investment
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Intermediate · Weekly
Upside triggers
- If the Fed starts cutting rates from the current 3.62%, that would be a tailwind for ADBE and other Tech names, since rate-sensitive parts of the market tend to rally when the Fed eases.
- If sector bellwethers like SAP, CRM, and CDNS keep beating earnings and guiding higher, the Tech sector momentum should keep lifting ADBE and other Tech names. Worth watching these names for early signals.
Downside triggers
- If ADBE reverses and cuts guidance after recently raising (RAISED as of 2026-06-11), that's the worst kind of move: a credibility hit on top of the lower number. Stocks usually get punished disproportionately for this.
- If sector bellwethers like SAP, CRM, and CDNS start missing or guiding lower, the Tech tailwind helping ADBE and other Tech names could fade. Watch these names for early warning.
- If GDP growth slows materially from the current 2.6% (say, below 2%), it hits ADBE and other Tech names harder than the average stock, since the sector is growth-sensitive.
Recent events
(material 8-K / filing activity)Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-06-116d agoItem 5.02
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On June 8, 2026, Daniel Durn notified the Company of his decision to resign as Chief Financial Officer and Executive Vice President, Finance, Technology, Security and Operations, effective June 15, 2026. On June 11, 2026, Steven Day was appointed to serve as the Company’s interim Chief Financial Officer, effective immediately upon Mr. Durn’s depart…
Executive changeneutral
Score history
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
+5.3 vs last weeklatest as of 2026-06-17
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.