Reading SNOW? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track SNOW free→Reading SNOW? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track SNOW free→
NYSEInformation TechnologySoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
Recent financial performance is weak, and earnings quality cannot be assessed since the company was unprofitable over the past year. Management's recent track record has been fairly steady, and risk is elevated. The sector backdrop is a tailwind, and compared with sector peers, SNOW is typical. Peer multiples imply a price about 483% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is rich, as it trades above peer multiples, and the longer horizon does not make that back through growth. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 5 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $238.35. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $241, SNOW's earnings are too small for P/E to mean much; on sales it trades at 20× p/s (6.7× the 3× p/s peer median). At a normal multiple the price implies ~568% near-term growth vs our ~32% forecast. That gap is an optionality premium a financial-multiple model can't price — our $36 fair value covers only the as-is business, low confidence. Analysts: $125–$370. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 568% near-term growth, well above our forecast of about 32%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Flags: expensive valuation, a turbulent sector regime (Heating).
For similar setups historically (n=2,301): about 43% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 77% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Information Technology names rated weak grew net income 63% of the time over the next year (vs 62% for the rest of the cohort, n=2777).
Over the trailing year it converted -1.04x of net income into operating cash flow.
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity, real (inflation-adjusted) rates.
3 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Information Technology names rated neutral grew net income 64% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=1040).
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $0.42 → $0.45 (+6.4% / 30d). 31 raised, 5 cut, 43 covering analysts.
1 upgrade, 0 downgrades / 30d, 43 maintained. 86% of analysts rate Buy.
27 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 41.2% above current price.
1 positive, 0 negative / 30d. See F4 management tile for the event list.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$225.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$569.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $5,630.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: If revenue growth drops, it may signal a slowdown in the technology sector. This could impact Snowflake's performance.
Confirms:Sector revenue growth reported below its median for the last quarter.
Disproves:Sector revenue growth remains above its median for the last quarter.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for SNOW yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On May 27, 2026, Snowflake Inc. (the “ Company ”) issued a press release announcing its financial results for the fiscal quarter ended April 30, 2026. A copy of the press release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 and is incorporated herein by reference. The information contained in this
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
$125.00 – $370.00 (median $279.00) · 42 analysts · as of 2026-06-08
Looks more expensive than peers.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2026-Q1, 2026-Q2, 2026-Q3, 2027-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Application Software.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
SNOW SNOWFLAKE INC. | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 34 of 100 | expensive | elevated |
ORCL Oracle Corporation | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 67 of 100 | full | elevated |
PLTR Palantir Technologies | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 83 of 100 | expensive | elevated |
SAP SAP SE | — | — | elevated |
APP AppLovin | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 57 of 100 | expensive | elevated |
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLK
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Snowflake aims to increase its full-year product revenue guidance to $5,840 million, representing 31% year-over-year growth.
Snowflake has raised its non-GAAP operating margin guidance to 13.5% for fiscal year 2027.
Snowflake aims to maintain a non-GAAP product gross margin of 75.0% for fiscal year 2027.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On February 25, 2026, Snowflake Inc. (the “ Company ”) issued a press release announcing its financial results for the fiscal fourth quarter and fiscal year ended January 31, 2026. A copy of the press release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 and is incorporated herein by reference. The information contained in this
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On January 28, 2026, Jeremy Burton, a Class III director of the Board of Directors (the “ Board ”) of Snowflake Inc. (the “ Company ”) and a member of the Cybersecurity Committee of the Board, provided notice of his resignation as a member of the Board and any committees thereof, effective January 30, 2026. Mr. Burton resigned in connection with th…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On December 3, 2025, Snowflake Inc. (the “ Company ”) issued a press release announcing its financial results for the fiscal quarter ended October 31, 2025. A copy of the press release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 and is incorporated herein by reference. The information contained in this
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. As previously reported in a Current Report on Form 8-K filed by Snowflake Inc. (the “ Company ”) with the Securities and Exchange Commission (the “ SEC ”) on February 26, 2025 (File No. 001-39504), on February 25, 2025, Michael P. Scarpelli notified the Company of his intention to retire as the Company’s Chief Financial Officer and the Company bega…