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SNOWFLAKE INC. (SNOW)
NYSEInformation TechnologySoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-06-16
Watch· this week
$238.35-1.01%
Close 2026-06-16 · 1-day change
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
The bottom line
Recent financial performance is weak, and earnings quality cannot be assessed since the company was unprofitable over the past year. Management's recent track record has been fairly steady, and risk is elevated. The sector backdrop is a tailwind, and compared with sector peers, SNOW is typical. Peer multiples imply a price about 483% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is rich, as it trades above peer multiples, and the longer horizon does not make that back through growth. This read is provisional.
as of 2026-06-16
Quick facts
- Exchange
- NYSE
- Sector
- Information Technology
- Industry
- Software - Application
- Market cap
- $83.45B
- Employees
- 92,634
- IPO date
- 2020-08-24
- Next earnings
- 2026-08-26
Price
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Adjusted daily closes (split & dividend). Scroll over the chart to zoom; click a range to reset.
EarningsMaterial event
What's priced in
(what the market already expects)What it's worth (estimated)
A consensus fair price across 5 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $238.35. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
12-month· primaryexpensive
$41.17consensus
Range $32.53 – $54.91
vs price: +479% above
Method agreement — · 5 methods
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
3-yearexpensive
$102.31consensus
Range $99.62 – $130.64
vs price: +133% above
Method agreement — · 4 methods
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
5-yearfull
How much to trust our fair value
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
Optionality premiumlow confidence
At $241, SNOW's earnings are too small for P/E to mean much; on sales it trades at 20× p/s (6.7× the 3× p/s peer median). At a normal multiple the price implies ~568% near-term growth vs our ~32% forecast. That gap is an optionality premium a financial-multiple model can't price — our $36 fair value covers only the as-is business, low confidence. Analysts: $125–$370. Not investment advice.
Multiple (P/S)
19.8x
peer 3.0x · own history —
Premium
6.7x peer
Growth the price needs
568%
our forecast 32%
Our fair value
$36.02
range $32.73 – $54.03
Analyst range(a guide on our number, not a target)Our number is below the analyst range
How this stock is priced
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
expensiverich12-month view
What's priced inUnjustified
The market is pricing in roughly 568% near-term growth, well above our forecast of about 32%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Elevated fragilityrisk posture, not a price call
Flags: expensive valuation, a turbulent sector regime (Heating).
Historical context
For similar setups historically (n=2,301): about 43% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 77% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
How strong is the business
(quality & execution)Factor signals
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Recent financial performance
weakOperating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Information Technology names rated weak grew net income 63% of the time over the next year (vs 62% for the rest of the cohort, n=2777).
21st pctl · Information Technology
Earnings quality
loss makingOver the trailing year it converted -1.04x of net income into operating cash flow.
Macro sensitivity
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
- the broad stock market: This stock moves with the broad market (high beta).
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity, real (inflation-adjusted) rates.
Management & capital allocation
neutral3 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Information Technology names rated neutral grew net income 64% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=1040).
Earnings setup & market context
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
Earnings setup · pre-print positioning
forward-looking
Strongly bullishEPS revised +6.4% / 30d, n=43for period ending 2026-07-31
Why this setup
Consensus revisions
EPS estimate $0.42 → $0.45 (+6.4% / 30d). 31 raised, 5 cut, 43 covering analysts.
Rating actions
1 upgrade, 0 downgrades / 30d, 43 maintained. 86% of analysts rate Buy.
Price target activity
27 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 41.2% above current price.
Material events
1 positive, 0 negative / 30d. See F4 management tile for the event list.
Sector context
Intermediate · WeeklyManagement scorecard
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
Overall: neutral
- Capital allocation
- weak
- Earnings discipline
- strong
- Margin discipline
- neutral
- Balance sheet
- weak
- Post-call reaction
- strong
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
How bumpy is the path
(risk while you hold it)Risk: how this stock moves
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
Intermediate · WeeklyLong-term · 1–3 yr
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$225.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$569.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $5,630.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
elevatedas of 2026-06-16
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
What would change the read
(catalysts & re-read triggers)What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Short-term · Daily
- No material changes since the prior snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
What to watch next
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Intermediate · Weekly
- DownsideMedium confidenceMonthsactive 4d
Watch for sector revenue growth dropping below median
Why it matters: If revenue growth drops, it may signal a slowdown in the technology sector. This could impact Snowflake's performance.
What confirms / what disproves
Confirms:Sector revenue growth reported below its median for the last quarter.
Disproves:Sector revenue growth remains above its median for the last quarter.
Sector context
News catalysts
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for SNOW yet.
This sector is also watching
- Watch for revenue growth in IT sector dropping below median
- Watch for FOMC decisions impacting tech investment
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Intermediate · Weekly
Upside triggers
- If the Fed starts cutting rates from the current 3.62%, that would be a tailwind for SNOW and other Tech names, since rate-sensitive parts of the market tend to rally when the Fed eases.
- If sector bellwethers like SAP, CRM, and CDNS keep beating earnings and guiding higher, the Tech sector momentum should keep lifting SNOW and other Tech names. Worth watching these names for early signals.
Downside triggers
- If SNOW reverses and cuts guidance after recently raising (RAISED as of 2026-05-27), that's the worst kind of move: a credibility hit on top of the lower number. Stocks usually get punished disproportionately for this.
- If sector bellwethers like SAP, CRM, and CDNS start missing or guiding lower, the Tech tailwind helping SNOW and other Tech names could fade. Watch these names for early warning.
- If GDP growth slows materially from the current 2.6% (say, below 2%), it hits SNOW and other Tech names harder than the average stock, since the sector is growth-sensitive.
Recent events
(material 8-K / filing activity)Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-05-2721d agoItem 2.02
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On May 27, 2026, Snowflake Inc. (the “ Company ”) issued a press release announcing its financial results for the fiscal quarter ended April 30, 2026. A copy of the press release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.1 and is incorporated herein by reference. The information contained in this
Earnings preannouncementpositive
Score history
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
+7.3 vs last weeklatest as of 2026-06-17
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.