SNOWFLAKE INC. (SNOW)

NYSEInformation TechnologySoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-10-23

$325.43+3.65%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge SNOWFLAKE INC.’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

+0.0%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

3.02 → 3.02 EPS · FY ending Jan 31, 2028 · 27 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 24, 2026 to Oct 24, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 27 to 27; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
FY 2027 · Q3
Revenue	—	1.65B
EPS	—	0.6
Operating margin	15.5%non-GAAP	—
FY 2027 · Annual
Revenue	—	6.32B
EPS	—	2.217
Gross margin	74%non-GAAP	—
FY 2028 · Annual
Revenue	—	8.16B
EPS	—	3.024

What the Thesis Depends On

4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Free cash flow margin improves to at least 23% in FY27	A supporting condition in SNOWFLAKE INC.'s published investment case. The stated target is >= 23%.	Intact	Free cash flow margin falls below 15% in FY27	Free cash flow: $83.803M FY2027-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= 23%. Target and observation units differ. Source published Sep 4, 202683,803,000 USD · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2027-Q2 · Period ending Jul 31, 2026 Source: stock_quarterly_financials_fmp. Reference: 2027-Q2. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Maintain gross margin near 75% in FY27	Gross margin stays high near 75%.	Broken	Gross margin falls below 70% in FY27	Gross margin: 67.02% FY2027-Q2; GAAP. Published target: ~75%. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Sep 4, 202667.023706 percent · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2027-Q2 · Period ending Jul 31, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: e298adf2-5827-4e1c-abde-54cfae10b299. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Operating margin improves to at least 13.5% in FY27	Profit margins improve with operating margin guidance raised to 13.5%.	Improving	Operating margin falls below 10% in FY27	Operating margin: -17% FY2027-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= 13.5%. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Sep 4, 2026-17.000788 percent · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2027-Q2 · Period ending Jul 31, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: e298adf2-5827-4e1c-abde-54cfae10b299. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Product revenue grows to at least $5.84B in FY27	Snowflake grows product revenue about 31% yearly to $5.84 billion.	Intact	Product revenue falls below $5.0 billion in FY27	Product revenue: $1.492B FY2027-Q2; reported segment. Published target: >= $5.84 billion. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Sep 4, 20261,491,861,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source Product · reported segment FY2027-Q2 · Period ending Jul 31, 2026 Source: stock_segment_revenue. Reference: 2027-Q2. Source status: vendor observation. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 2 of last 3 quarters. Management raised full-year product revenue guidance from $5,660 million (27% growth) to $6,070 million (36% growth). The guidance increase aligns with reported accelerating revenue growth, indicating delivery on this priority. Delivery assessment Oct 24, 2026

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-01-31 · fmp

FY2028 EPS$3.02

$2.72 → $3.02 · observed estimates

FY2028 revenue$8.16B

$7.66B → $8.16B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2028 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$2.72	$7,660,802,724	27 / 36
2026-07-25	$2.72	$7,660,802,724	27 / 36
2026-07-26	$2.72	$7,660,802,724	27 / 36
2026-07-27	$2.72	$7,660,802,724	27 / 36
2026-07-28	$2.72	$7,660,802,724	27 / 36
2026-07-29	$2.72	$7,660,802,724	27 / 36
2026-07-30	$2.72	$7,660,802,724	27 / 36
2026-07-31	$2.73	$7,668,710,528	27 / 36
2026-08-01	$2.73	$7,668,710,528	27 / 36
2026-08-02	$2.73	$7,668,710,528	27 / 36
2026-08-03	$2.73	$7,668,710,528	27 / 36
2026-08-04	$2.73	$7,668,710,528	27 / 36
2026-08-05	$2.73	$7,668,710,528	27 / 36
2026-08-06	$2.73	$7,668,710,528	27 / 36
2026-08-08	$2.73	$7,668,710,528	27 / 36
2026-08-09	$2.73	$7,668,710,528	27 / 36
2026-08-10	$2.73	$7,668,710,528	27 / 36
2026-08-12	$2.73	$7,668,710,528	27 / 36
2026-08-13	$2.73	$7,668,710,528	27 / 36
2026-08-14	$2.73	$7,668,710,528	27 / 36
2026-08-15	$2.73	$7,668,710,528	27 / 36
2026-08-16	$2.73	$7,668,710,528	27 / 36
2026-08-17	$2.73	$7,668,710,528	27 / 36
2026-08-18	$2.73	$7,668,710,528	27 / 36
2026-08-19	$2.73	$7,668,710,528	27 / 36
2026-08-20	$2.73	$7,673,047,090	28 / 37
2026-08-21	$2.73	$7,673,047,090	28 / 37
2026-08-22	$2.73	$7,673,047,090	28 / 37
2026-08-23	$2.75	$7,683,821,933	28 / 37
2026-08-24	$2.75	$7,683,821,933	28 / 37
2026-08-25	$2.75	$7,683,854,899	28 / 36
2026-08-26	$2.75	$7,691,393,965	27 / 36
2026-08-27	$2.75	$7,691,393,965	27 / 36
2026-08-28	$2.75	$7,691,393,965	27 / 36
2026-08-29	$2.75	$7,691,393,965	27 / 36
2026-08-30	$2.75	$7,691,393,965	27 / 36
2026-08-31	$2.75	$7,691,393,965	27 / 36
2026-09-01	$2.75	$7,691,393,965	27 / 36
2026-09-02	$2.73	$7,683,638,010	27 / 36
2026-09-03	$2.90	$7,971,186,657	27 / 36
2026-09-04	$2.98	$8,103,545,192	27 / 36
2026-09-05	$3.00	$8,130,122,459	27 / 36
2026-09-06	$3.00	$8,130,122,459	27 / 36
2026-09-07	$3.00	$8,130,122,459	27 / 36
2026-09-08	$3.00	$8,130,122,459	27 / 36
2026-09-09	$3.00	$8,130,122,459	27 / 36
2026-09-10	$3.00	$8,130,122,459	27 / 36
2026-09-11	$3.02	$8,145,421,647	27 / 36
2026-09-12	$3.02	$8,145,421,647	27 / 36
2026-09-13	$3.02	$8,145,421,647	27 / 36
2026-09-14	$3.02	$8,145,421,647	27 / 36
2026-09-15	$3.02	$8,145,426,787	27 / 36
2026-09-16	$3.02	$8,145,426,787	27 / 36
2026-09-17	$3.02	$8,152,569,645	27 / 36
2026-09-18	$3.02	$8,152,569,645	27 / 36
2026-09-19	$3.02	$8,152,569,645	27 / 36
2026-09-20	$3.02	$8,156,370,350	27 / 36
2026-09-21	$3.02	$8,156,370,860	27 / 36
2026-09-22	$3.02	$8,156,370,860	27 / 36
2026-09-23	$3.02	$8,156,370,860	27 / 36
2026-09-24	$3.02	$8,156,370,860	27 / 36
2026-09-25	$3.02	$8,156,370,860	27 / 36
2026-09-26	$3.02	$8,156,370,860	26 / 36
2026-09-27	$3.02	$8,156,370,860	26 / 35
2026-09-28	$3.02	$8,156,370,860	26 / 35
2026-09-29	$3.02	$8,155,362,431	27 / 36
2026-09-30	$3.02	$8,155,362,431	27 / 36
2026-10-01	$3.02	$8,155,351,893	27 / 37
2026-10-02	$3.02	$8,155,351,893	27 / 37
2026-10-03	$3.02	$8,155,351,876	27 / 37
2026-10-04	$3.02	$8,155,351,876	27 / 37
2026-10-05	$3.02	$8,155,351,876	27 / 37
2026-10-06	$3.02	$8,155,351,876	27 / 37
2026-10-07	$3.02	$8,155,351,876	27 / 37
2026-10-08	$3.02	$8,155,351,876	27 / 37
2026-10-09	$3.02	$8,155,351,876	27 / 37
2026-10-10	$3.02	$8,155,351,876	27 / 37
2026-10-11	$3.02	$8,155,351,876	27 / 37
2026-10-12	$3.02	$8,155,351,876	27 / 37
2026-10-13	$3.02	$8,155,351,872	27 / 37
2026-10-14	$3.02	$8,155,351,872	27 / 37
2026-10-15	$3.02	$8,155,351,872	27 / 37
2026-10-16	$3.02	$8,155,351,745	27 / 37
2026-10-17	$3.02	$8,155,351,745	27 / 37
2026-10-18	$3.03	$8,156,842,654	27 / 37
2026-10-19	$3.03	$8,156,842,654	27 / 37
2026-10-20	$3.02	$8,156,842,654	27 / 37
2026-10-21	$3.02	$8,156,842,229	27 / 36
2026-10-22	$3.02	$8,156,842,229	27 / 36
2026-10-23	$3.02	$8,156,842,229	27 / 36
2026-10-24	$3.02	$8,156,842,229	27 / 36

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	45	6	1
2026-06-01	44	6	1
2026-07-01	44	6	1
2026-08-01	44	6	2
2026-09-01	45	6	2
2026-10-01	46	6	2

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 46 Buy / Strong Buy · 6 Hold · 2 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades1 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 1 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

Individual price-target observations are unavailable.

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Free cash flow margin improves to at least 23% in FY27Free cash flow: $83.803M
Maintain gross margin near 75% in FY27Published status: Broken
Operating margin improves to at least 13.5% in FY27Operating margin: -17%
Product revenue grows to at least $5.84B in FY27Product revenue: $1.492B

Next proof point

Dec 2, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.5%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-56.3%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

SNOWFLAKE INC. outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This is a growth business whose multi-year view depends on continued expansion in product revenue and AI adoption, rather than current reported profitability. The thesis is in a watch state: management is making progress on stated priorities, but recent financial performance is weak relative to its industry cohort.

What's priced into SNOWFLAKE INC.

SNOW is valued at a substantial premium to peers, with the evidence pointing to expectations for future growth and product opportunity. The expectations gap is modest, and the snapshot characterizes the valuation as justified rather than showing a broad, fragile setup. Valuation-model confidence is low.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near term, product revenue and AI-related customer adoption have grown, while non-GAAP operating margin improved; progress on operating discipline is mixed. Recent momentum weakened, and the company remains loss-making on the snapshot’s earnings-quality measure. A guidance cut would be a meaningful negative, though the stated near-term miss risk is low.

What SNOWFLAKE INC. hinges on

Over the next several quarters, the thesis hinges on whether AI adoption and product revenue growth continue while margins and free cash flow improve. A guidance cut would weaken the case; easing interest rates or continued strong results from sector peers could support the broader technology backdrop. Recent debt and equity-related events add some capital-allocation uncertainty, but the evidence gives limited detail about their impact.