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Track DDOG free→Datadog (DDOG)
NASDAQInformation TechnologySoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-06-16
Intact
$231.11-0.85%
Close 2026-06-16 · 1-day change
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
The bottom line
Recent financial performance is neutral, while earnings quality is robust, cash backs up reported profits. Management's recent track record has been steady, but risk is elevated. The sector backdrop is a tailwind, and compared with sector peers, DDOG is typical. Peer multiples imply a price about 385% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is rich. Key factors to watch include any guidance cuts from DDOG and the performance of sector bellwethers like SAP and CRM.
as of 2026-06-16
Quick facts
- Exchange
- NASDAQ
- Sector
- Information Technology
- Industry
- Software - Application
- Market cap
- $81.84B
- Employees
- —
- IPO date
- 2019-08-23
- Next earnings
- —
Price
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Adjusted daily closes (split & dividend). Scroll over the chart to zoom; click a range to reset.
EarningsMaterial event
What's priced in
(what the market already expects)What it's worth (estimated)
A consensus fair price across 7 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $231.11. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
12-month· primaryexpensive
$47.69consensus
Range $41.90 – $49.93
vs price: +385% above
Method agreement — · 7 methods
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
3-yearexpensive
$79.88consensus
Range $67.41 – $133.73
vs price: +189% above
Method agreement — · 6 methods
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
5-yearexpensive
How much to trust our fair value
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
Optionality premiumlow confidence
At $230, DDOG's earnings are too small for P/E to mean much; on sales it trades at 24× p/s (8.0× the 3× p/s peer median, and 1.2× even its own history). At a normal multiple the price implies ~389% near-term growth vs our ~29% forecast. That gap is an optionality premium a financial-multiple model can't price — our $47 fair value covers only the as-is business, low confidence. Analysts: $139–$305. Not investment advice.
Multiple (P/S)
24.2x
peer 3.0x · own history 20.7x
Premium
8.0x peer
1.2x its own history
Growth the price needs
389%
our forecast 29%
Our fair value
$47.04
range $41.86 – $50.37
Analyst range
How this stock is priced
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
expensiverich12-month view
What's priced inUnjustified
The market is pricing in roughly 389% near-term growth, well above our forecast of about 29%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Elevated fragilityrisk posture, not a price call
Flags: expensive valuation, a turbulent sector regime (Heating).
Historical context
For similar setups historically (n=2,301): about 43% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 77% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
How strong is the business
(quality & execution)Factor signals
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Recent financial performance
neutralOperating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Information Technology names rated neutral grew net income 54% of the time over the next year (vs 68% for the rest of the cohort, n=3704).
51st pctl · Information Technology
Earnings quality
robustOver the trailing year it converted 8.21x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Information Technology names rated robust grew net income 69% of the time over the next year (vs 55% for the rest of the cohort, n=2129).
94th pctl · Information Technology
Macro sensitivity
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
- the broad stock market: This stock moves with the broad market (high beta).
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity, real (inflation-adjusted) rates.
Management & capital allocation
stableEarnings setup & market context
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
Earnings setup · pre-print positioning
forward-looking
Strongly bullish12 PT revisions / 30d, avg 15.6% above currentfor period ending 2026-06-30
Why this setup
Consensus revisions
EPS estimate $0.58 → $0.58 (-0.0% / 30d). 37 raised, 0 cut, 40 covering analysts.
Rating actions
1 upgrade, 0 downgrades / 30d, 15 maintained. 92% of analysts rate Buy.
Price target activity
12 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 15.6% above current price.
Sector context
Intermediate · WeeklySector phase: information technology is in maturing, with decelerating (~0.2 years in phase).
Management scorecard
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
Overall: strong
- Capital allocation
- neutral
- Earnings discipline
- strong
- Margin discipline
- strong
- Balance sheet
- neutral
- Guidance credibility
- neutral
- Post-call reaction
How bumpy is the path
(risk while you hold it)Risk: how this stock moves
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
Intermediate · WeeklyLong-term · 1–3 yr
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$197.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$445.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $4,862.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
elevatedas of 2026-06-16
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
What would change the read
(catalysts & re-read triggers)What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Short-term · Daily
- No material changes since the prior snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
What to watch next
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Intermediate · Weekly
- UpsideHigh confidenceWeeksactive 11d
Watch for Q2 revenue guidance between $1.07 billion and $1.08 billion
Why it matters: This range confirms Datadog's growth momentum and ability to meet its targets for 2026.
What confirms / what disproves
Confirms:Q2 revenue reported within the range of $1.07 billion to $1.08 billion.
Disproves:Q2 revenue reported below $1.07 billion.
Earnings call
News catalysts
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
- 2026-06-115d agoInvesting.com
Advances: Increase revenue to $4.30-$4.34 billion
Increased price target indicates strong revenue growth potential.
ReinforcesUnconfirmed report
This sector is also watching
- Watch for revenue growth in IT sector dropping below median
- Watch for FOMC decisions impacting tech investment
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Intermediate · Weekly
Upside triggers
- If the Fed starts cutting rates from the current 3.62%, that would be a tailwind for DDOG and other Tech names, since rate-sensitive parts of the market tend to rally when the Fed eases.
- If sector bellwethers like SAP, CRM, and CDNS keep beating earnings and guiding higher, the Tech sector momentum should keep lifting DDOG and other Tech names. Worth watching these names for early signals.
- If DDOG raises forward guidance on the next earnings call (currently NEW as of 2026-05-07), that's a momentum boost. Street estimates typically follow guidance up and the stock tends to re-rate higher.
Downside triggers
- If DDOG cuts guidance on the next call (currently NEW as of 2026-05-07), that's a meaningful negative. The Street tends to walk down estimates and the stock usually takes a leg lower.
- If sector bellwethers like SAP, CRM, and CDNS start missing or guiding lower, the Tech tailwind helping DDOG and other Tech names could fade. Watch these names for early warning.
Recent events
(material 8-K / filing activity)Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-05-071mo agoItem 2.02
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On May 7, 2026, Datadog, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing its financial results for the quarter ended March 31, 2026. A copy of the press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K and is incorporated herein by reference. The information contained in this Item 2.02, including Exhibit 99.1 hereto, shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as ame…
Earnings preannouncementpositive
Score history
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
+2.0 vs last weeklatest as of 2026-06-17
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.