Reading CDNS? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track CDNS free→Reading CDNS? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track CDNS free→NASDAQInformation TechnologySoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is strong, but management's recent track record has been unsteady, with frequent disruptive corporate changes. Earnings quality is mixed, and risk is moderate. The sector backdrop is a tailwind, and compared with sector peers, CDNS trades above typical levels. Peer multiples imply a price about 264% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is rich, as it trades above peer multiples, and the longer horizon does not make that back through growth. Key factors to watch include potential guidance cuts and the performance of sector bellwethers like SAP and CRM.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 8 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $387.85. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $394 the market pays 52× p/e — above the 21× p/e peer median but in line with its own 51× history. That premium reflects a durable franchise our peer-anchored $112 fair value understates; treat the 'expensive vs peers' read with low confidence. Analysts: $370–$440. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 253% near-term growth, well above our forecast of about 11%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Flags: expensive valuation, weak execution quality, a turbulent sector regime (Heating).
For similar setups historically (n=889): about 49% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 85% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Information Technology names rated strong grew net income 73% of the time over the next year (vs 58% for the rest of the cohort, n=2777).
Over the trailing year it converted 1.36x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Information Technology names rated neutral grew net income 62% of the time over the next year (vs 58% for the rest of the cohort, n=2831).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to real (inflation-adjusted) rates, the US dollar, long-term interest rates, Fed net liquidity.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $2.05 → $2.05 (+0.0% / 30d). 8 raised, 0 cut, 19 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 2 maintained. 85% of analysts rate Buy.
3 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 12.9% above current price.
Market and fundamentals agree. Analysts are positioned bullishly on a fundamentally strong name.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$160.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$329.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $2,885.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: A growing backlog shows strong future revenue and customer loyalty.
Confirms:Backlog was reported above $8.0 billion.
Disproves:Backlog was reported below $7.5 billion.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for CDNS yet.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. (d) As previously reported in a Form 8-K filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission on November 17, 2025 (the “Original Filing”) by Cadence Design Systems, Inc. (“Cadence”), the Board of Directors (the “Board”) of Cadence appointed Dr. Luc Van den hove as a director of Cadence, effective January 1, 2026. At the time of the Original Filing, t…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
$370.00 – $440.00 (median $410.00) · 8 analysts · as of 2026-06-09
Looks more expensive than peers.
Around its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Application Software.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
CDNS Cadence Design Systems | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 72 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
ORCL Oracle Corporation | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 66 of 100 | expensive | elevated |
PLTR Palantir Technologies | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 82 of 100 | expensive | elevated |
SAP SAP SE | — | — | elevated |
APP AppLovin | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 60 of 100 | expensive | elevated |
19 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by capital-allocation actions. Historically, Information Technology names rated volatile grew net income 58% of the time over the next year (vs 61% for the rest of the cohort, n=793).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLK
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Met or beat guidance 100% of the last 8 guided quarters · 66.3% avg surprise
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Cadence aims to achieve a 17% year-over-year revenue growth for 2026.
Cadence aims to maintain a non-GAAP operating margin in the range of 43.5% to 44.5% for 2026.
Cadence aims to achieve EPS growth with a target range of $4.39 to $4.49 for 2026.
Why it matters: If Cadence meets this growth rate, it shows strong demand for its AI products.
Confirms:Q2 revenue growth of 17% year-over-year or better.
Disproves:Q2 revenue growth falls below 15% year-over-year.
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. (e) Amendment of the Omnibus Equity Incentive Plan As described in
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On April 27, 2026 Cadence Design Systems, Inc. (“Cadence”) issued a press release announcing its financial results for the quarter ended March 31, 2026. A copy of the press release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.01 and a copy of the commentary by the Chief Financial Officer of Cadence regarding Cadence's financial results for the quarter ended March 31, 2026 is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.02, and the press release and the commentary are incor…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On February 17, 2026 Cadence Design Systems, Inc. (“Cadence”) issued a press release announcing its financial results for the quarter and fiscal year ended December 31, 2025. A copy of the press release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.01 and a copy of the commentary by the Chief Financial Officer of Cadence regarding Cadence's financial results for the quarter and fiscal year ended December 31, 2025 is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.02, and the p…
Unregistered Sales of Equity Securities. As previously reported, on September 4, 2025, Cadence Design Systems, Inc., a Delaware corporation (“Cadence”), entered into an Equity Purchase Agreement (the “Purchase Agreement”) with Hexagon Smart Solutions AB, a Swedish private limited liability company (“Seller”), to acquire Seller’s design and engineering business (the “Acquisition”). In connection with the consummation of the Acquisition on February 23, 2026, Cadence issued 3,224,473 shares of C…