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Oracle Corporation (ORCL)
NYSEInformation TechnologySoftware - InfrastructureSnapshot 2026-06-16
Intact
$188.35-2.23%
Close 2026-06-16 · 1-day change
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
The bottom line
Recent financial performance is strong, but management's recent track record has been unsteady, with frequent disruptive corporate changes. Earnings quality is mixed, and risk is elevated, while the sector backdrop is a tailwind. Peer multiples imply a price about 34% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is fair. The valuation is currently priced roughly in line with peer multiples. This read is provisional.
as of 2026-06-16
Quick facts
- Exchange
- NYSE
- Sector
- Information Technology
- Industry
- Software - Infrastructure
- Market cap
- $529.57B
- Employees
- —
- IPO date
- 1986-03-12
- Next earnings
- —
Price
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Adjusted daily closes (split & dividend). Scroll over the chart to zoom; click a range to reset.
EarningsMaterial event
What's priced in
(what the market already expects)What it's worth (estimated)
A consensus fair price across 6 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $188.35. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
12-month· primaryfull
$140.48consensus
Range $82.79 – $152.33
vs price: +34% above
Method agreement — · 6 methods
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
3-yearinexpensive
$297.28consensus
Range $200.31 – $331.83
vs price: -37% below
Method agreement — · 5 methods
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
5-yearinexpensive
How much to trust our fair value
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
Durable premiummedium confidence
At $193 the market pays 29× p/e — above the 21× p/e peer median but in line with its own 23× history. That premium reflects a durable franchise our peer-anchored $141 fair value understates; treat the 'expensive vs peers' read with medium confidence. Analysts: $160–$325. Not investment advice.
Multiple (P/E)
29.0x
peer 21.2x · own history 23.5x
Premium
1.4x peer
1.2x its own history
Growth the price needs
36%
our forecast 14%
Our fair value
$141.32
range $82.72 – $152.52
Analyst range(a guide on our number, not a target)
How this stock is priced
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
fullfair12-month view
What's priced inStretched
The market is pricing in roughly 36% near-term growth, ahead of our forecast of about 14%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Low fragilityrisk posture, not a price call
Only weak execution quality, a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
Historical context
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
How strong is the business
(quality & execution)Factor signals
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Recent financial performance
strongOperating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Information Technology names rated strong grew net income 73% of the time over the next year (vs 58% for the rest of the cohort, n=2777).
74th pctl · Information Technology
Earnings quality
neutralOver the trailing year it converted 1.45x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Information Technology names rated neutral grew net income 62% of the time over the next year (vs 58% for the rest of the cohort, n=2831).
41st pctl · Information Technology
Macro sensitivity
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
- the broad stock market: This stock moves with the broad market (high beta).
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, Fed net liquidity, long-term interest rates.
Management & capital allocation
volatileEarnings setup & market context
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
Earnings setup · pre-print positioning
forward-looking
Bullish16 PT revisions / 30d, avg 22.7% above currentfor period ending 2026-08-31
Why this setup
Consensus revisions
EPS estimate $1.68 → $1.72 (+2.5% / 30d). 2 raised, 2 cut, 33 covering analysts.
Rating actions
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 22 maintained. 84% of analysts rate Buy.
Price target activity
16 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 22.7% above current price.
Material events
0 positive, 0 negative / 30d.
Transition story with positive analyst positioning (often a turnaround setup).
Sector context
Intermediate · WeeklyManagement scorecard
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
Overall: strong
- Capital allocation
- strong
- Earnings discipline
- neutral
- Margin discipline
- strong
- Balance sheet
- strong
- Post-call reaction
- neutral
Met or beat guidance 100% of the last 1 guided quarters · 6.6% avg surprise
How bumpy is the path
(risk while you hold it)Risk: how this stock moves
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
Intermediate · WeeklyLong-term · 1–3 yr
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$223.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$590.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $5,826.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
elevatedas of 2026-06-16
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
What would change the read
(catalysts & re-read triggers)What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Short-term · Daily
- label change · valuation_labelsmall change
Valuation label changed from 'expensive' to 'full'.
The valuation changed from expensive to full. Risk fell. The macro backdrop remained a tailwind. Recent performance was strong, while management was volatile.
as of 2026-06-16
What to watch next
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
- UpsideHigh confidenceQuartersactive 4d
Watch for Q1 FY 2027 cloud revenue growth between 57% and 63%
Why it matters: This growth range shows if Oracle's cloud business is keeping up with demand. Strong growth supports the company's cloud strategy.
What confirms / what disproves
Confirms:Cloud revenue growth lands between 57% and 63% in constant currency.
Disproves:Cloud revenue growth falls below 57% in constant currency.
Earnings call
News catalysts
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
- 2026-06-161d agoYahoo! Finance
Advances: Increase Cloud Revenue
New AI capabilities enhance cloud revenue potential.
Strongly reinforcesUnconfirmed report
This sector is also watching
- Watch for revenue growth in IT sector dropping below median
- Watch for FOMC decisions impacting tech investment
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Intermediate · Weekly
Upside triggers
- If the Fed starts cutting rates from the current 3.62%, that would be a tailwind for ORCL and other Tech names, since rate-sensitive parts of the market tend to rally when the Fed eases.
- If sector bellwethers like MSFT, PLTR, and PANW keep beating earnings and guiding higher, the Tech sector momentum should keep lifting ORCL and other Tech names. Worth watching these names for early signals.
- If ORCL raises forward guidance on the next earnings call (currently NEW as of 2026-06-10), that's a momentum boost. Street estimates typically follow guidance up and the stock tends to re-rate higher.
Downside triggers
- If ORCL cuts guidance on the next call (currently NEW as of 2026-06-10), that's a meaningful negative. The Street tends to walk down estimates and the stock usually takes a leg lower.
- If sector bellwethers like MSFT, PLTR, and PANW start missing or guiding lower, the Tech tailwind helping ORCL and other Tech names could fade. Watch these names for early warning.
Recent events
(material 8-K / filing activity)Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-06-107d agoItem 2.02
Results of Operati ons and Financial Condition On June 10, 2026, Oracle Corporation (“Oracle”) issued a press release announcing financial results for its fiscal fourth quarter ended May 31, 2026. A copy of this press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this report. Section 8—Other Events
Earnings preannouncementneutral
Score history
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
+5.0 vs last weeklatest as of 2026-06-17
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.