Reading ORCL? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
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NYSEInformation TechnologySoftware - InfrastructureSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
Recent financial performance is strong, but management's recent track record has been unsteady, with frequent disruptive corporate changes. Earnings quality is mixed, and risk is elevated, while the sector backdrop is a tailwind. Peer multiples imply a price about 34% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is fair. The valuation is currently priced roughly in line with peer multiples. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 6 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $188.35. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $193 the market pays 29× p/e — above the 21× p/e peer median but in line with its own 23× history. That premium reflects a durable franchise our peer-anchored $141 fair value understates; treat the 'expensive vs peers' read with medium confidence. Analysts: $160–$325. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 36% near-term growth, ahead of our forecast of about 14%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only weak execution quality, a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 2 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Information Technology names rated strong grew net income 73% of the time over the next year (vs 58% for the rest of the cohort, n=2777).
Over the trailing year it converted 1.45x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Information Technology names rated neutral grew net income 62% of the time over the next year (vs 58% for the rest of the cohort, n=2831).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, Fed net liquidity, long-term interest rates.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $1.68 → $1.72 (+2.5% / 30d). 2 raised, 2 cut, 33 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 22 maintained. 84% of analysts rate Buy.
16 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 22.7% above current price.
0 positive, 0 negative / 30d.
Transition story with positive analyst positioning (often a turnaround setup).
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Met or beat guidance 100% of the last 1 guided quarters · 6.6% avg surprise
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$223.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$590.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $5,826.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Valuation label changed from 'expensive' to 'full'.
The valuation changed from expensive to full. Risk fell. The macro backdrop remained a tailwind. Recent performance was strong, while management was volatile.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: This growth range shows if Oracle's cloud business is keeping up with demand. Strong growth supports the company's cloud strategy.
Confirms:Cloud revenue growth lands between 57% and 63% in constant currency.
Disproves:Cloud revenue growth falls below 57% in constant currency.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
Advances: Increase Cloud Revenue
New AI capabilities enhance cloud revenue potential.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Results of Operati ons and Financial Condition On June 10, 2026, Oracle Corporation (“Oracle”) issued a press release announcing financial results for its fiscal fourth quarter ended May 31, 2026. A copy of this press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this report. Section 8—Other Events
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
$160.00 – $325.00 (median $240.50) · 28 analysts · as of 2026-06-11
Looks more expensive than peers.
Richer than its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1, 2026-Q2, 2026-Q3
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Application Software.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
ORCL Oracle Corporation | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 67 of 100 | full | elevated |
PLTR Palantir Technologies | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 82 of 100 | expensive | elevated |
SAP SAP SE | — | — | elevated |
APP AppLovin | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 60 of 100 | expensive | elevated |
CRM Salesforce | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 100 of 100 | fair | elevated |
25 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by capital-allocation actions. Historically, Information Technology names rated volatile grew net income 58% of the time over the next year (vs 61% for the rest of the cohort, n=793).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLK
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Focus on expanding cloud infrastructure and applications to drive revenue growth.
Target total revenue of $67 billion for fiscal year 2026.
Plan to allocate $50 billion for capital expenditures in fiscal year 2026.
Why it matters: Cloud revenue growth is key to Oracle's overall growth strategy. A strong rate supports future targets.
Confirms:Cloud revenue growth rate exceeds 30% year over year in Q4.
Disproves:Cloud revenue growth rate falls below 20% year over year in Q4.
Why it matters: New AI contracts can greatly increase income. This shows Oracle's role in the growing AI field.
Confirms one read:Revenue growth from AI contracts exceeds 40% year over year.
Confirms the other:Revenue growth from AI contracts is below 40% year over year.
Why it matters: Achieving $67B in revenue is a major goal. Confirmation signals strong performance.
Confirms:Management confirms FY26 revenue guidance of $67B during the next earnings call.
Disproves:Management revises FY26 revenue guidance down from $67B.
Why it matters: Changes in leaders can change company plans and results. Watching this shows effects on work.
Confirms one read:Good changes or better results after the CFO change.
Confirms the other:Bad changes or worse results after the CFO change.
Why it matters: Reaching this goal shows Oracle wants to grow its cloud services. This is key for success.
Confirms:Capital spending hits $50 billion for FY26.
Disproves:Capital expenditures fall short of $50 billion for FY26.
Why it matters: A big rise in RPO means strong future income. This is true, especially for AI deals.
Confirms:RPO grows by more than $85 billion from Q4 FY 2026.
Disproves:RPO growth is less than $85 billion from Q4 FY 2026.
Why it matters: A new CFO can change financial strategy and guidance. This could affect investor confidence.
Confirms one read:CFO Hilary Maxson gives positive news or updates in the next earnings call.
Confirms the other:CFO Maxson does not discuss key financial goals or gives negative news.
Advances: Increase Cloud Revenue
AI assistant improves product offering, boosting cloud sales.
Advances: Achieve $67B Revenue in FY26
Price target increase supports revenue growth expectations.
Advances: Increase Cloud Revenue
Token billing model aligns with increasing cloud revenue objective.
Concerns over capex uncertainty could impact growth objectives.
Advances: Increase Cloud Revenue
Highlights AI monetization potential, supporting cloud revenue growth.
Advances: Increase Cloud Revenue
Training youth enhances cloud adoption and future revenue.
Advances: Increase Cloud Revenue
Collaboration with AWS supports cloud revenue growth.
O ther Events Oracle announced that its Board of Directors has declared a cash dividend of $1,625 per share of our outstanding Mandatory Convertible Preferred Stock and $0.50 per share of our outstanding common stock. The Mandatory Convertible Preferred Stock dividend is payable on July 15, 2026 to stockholders of record as of the close of business on July 1, 2026 and the common stock dividend is payable on July 24, 2026 to stockholders of record as of the close of business on July 10, 2026.…
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers On May 6, 2026, the Board of Directors (the “Board”) of Oracle Corporation (“Oracle”) unanimously elected Tomislav Mihaljevic to serve as a director, effective immediately. Dr. Mihaljevic has not been named and is not currently expected to be named, to any committee of the Board at this time. Dr. Mihaljevic will be granted restricted stock units for…
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers On April 6, 2026, Oracle Corporation (“Oracle”) announced that Hilary Maxson will join Oracle as Chief Financial Officer on April 6, 2026. Ms. Maxson, age 48, served as Executive Vice President and Group Chief Financial Officer of Schneider Electric SE (“Schneider”) from 2020 until April 2026. In this role, Ms. Maxson was a member of Schneider’s Exe…
Results of Operati ons and Financial Condition On March 10, 2026, Oracle Corporation (“Oracle”) issued a press release announcing financial results for its fiscal third quarter ended February 28, 2026. A copy of this press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this report. Section 8—Other Events