Reading TEAM? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
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NASDAQInformation TechnologySoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-06-16
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
Recent financial performance is weak, and management's recent track record has been unsteady, with frequent disruptive corporate changes. Earnings quality cannot be assessed since the company was unprofitable over the past year. Peer multiples imply a price about 21% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is fair, but weakening. If TEAM cuts guidance on the next call, that's a meaningful negative. This read is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 5 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $91.55. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $92 TEAM trades at 25× p/e, in line with its 21× p/e peer median. Our $76 fair value reflects that, medium confidence. Analysts: $90–$295. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 20% of near-term growth above a flat-multiple fair value; not enough history to forecast a comparison. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Only a turbulent sector regime (Heating) — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Information Technology names rated weak grew net income 63% of the time over the next year (vs 62% for the rest of the cohort, n=2777).
Over the trailing year it converted -5.76x of net income into operating cash flow.
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, Fed net liquidity, long-term interest rates, real (inflation-adjusted) rates.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $1.50 → $1.50 (+0.0% / 30d). 30 raised, 0 cut, 30 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d. 79% of analysts rate Buy.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$284.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$659.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $7,413.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-16
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: If sector revenue growth drops, it could hurt Atlassian's performance. The sector is currently in a growth phase.
Confirms:Sector revenue growth reported below its median for the last quarter.
Disproves:Sector revenue growth remains above its median for the last quarter.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
Advances: Achieve 26.5% cloud revenue growth
Lifting revenue forecast supports cloud growth objective.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On April 30, 2026, Atlassian Corporation (the “ Company ”) issued a press release announcing its results for the quarter ended March 31, 2026 (the “ Press Release ”). A copy of the Press Release is attached as Exhibit 99.1 to this current report on Form 8-K and is incorporated by reference herein. The Company also published a letter to its shareholders announcing its financial results for the quarter ended March 31, 2026 (the “ Shareholder Letter…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
$90.00 – $295.00 (median $112.00) · 19 analysts · as of 2026-05-11
Looks more expensive than peers.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1, 2026-Q2, 2026-Q3
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Application Software.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
TEAM ATLASSIAN CORPORATION | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 47 of 100 | full | elevated |
ORCL Oracle Corporation | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 67 of 100 | full | elevated |
PLTR Palantir Technologies | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 83 of 100 | expensive | elevated |
SAP SAP SE | — | — | elevated |
APP AppLovin | Typical Show detailsSector percentile: 57 of 100 | expensive | elevated |
11 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by executive changes. Historically, Information Technology names rated volatile grew net income 58% of the time over the next year (vs 61% for the rest of the cohort, n=793).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
via XLK
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-16.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Rebalance the company to accelerate building the future of teamwork in the AI era and enhance enterprise sales.
Target a year-over-year cloud revenue growth of approximately 26.5%.
Maintain a gross margin of approximately 84.5% on a GAAP basis.
Costs Associated with Exit or Disposal Activities. On March 11, 2026, Atlassian Corporation (the “Company” or “ Atlassian ”) announced a restructuring that results in the elimination of certain roles, impacting approximately 10% of the Company’s workforce. These actions are intended to rebalance the Company to accelerate building the future of teamwork in the AI era. This includes self-funding further investment in key strategic priorities, such as AI and enterprise sales, reorganizing its te…
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. As part of its restructuring and reorganization, on March 11, 2026, the Company announced that Rajeev Rajan will step down from the role of Chief Technology Officer (“CTO”), effective March 31, 2026, after almost four years with the Company. Atlassian is thankful for Mr. Rajan’s many contributions in building a world-class R&D organization and cong…
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers . On February 18, 2026, Atlassian Corporation (the “Company”) announced the appointment of James Chuong as Chief Financial Officer, effective March 30, 2026 (the “Effective Date”). Mr. Chuong will serve as the Company’s principal financial officer as of the Effective Date. Mr. Chuong, age 46, has served as Chief Financial Officer at LinkedIn, a subs…
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On February 5, 2026, Atlassian Corporation (the “ Company ”) issued a press release announcing its results for the quarter ended December 31, 2025 (the “ Press Release ”). A copy of the Press Release is attached as Exhibit 99.1 to this current report on Form 8-K and is incorporated by reference herein. The Company also published a letter to its shareholders announcing its financial results for the quarter ended December 31, 2025 (the “ Shareholde…