ATLASSIAN CORPORATION (TEAM)

NASDAQInformation TechnologySoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-10-23

$227.61+1.99%

Close 2026-10-23 · 1-day change

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 24, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge ATLASSIAN CORPORATION’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

+0.2%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

6.68 → 6.70 EPS · FY ending Jun 30, 2028 · 8 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 24, 2026 to Oct 24, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 16 to 8; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Measure / period	Management expectations	Analyst expectations
FY 2027 · Q1
Revenue	$1.71B–$1.72B	—
Cloud revenue growth	About 28.5%	—
FY 2027 · Q2
Revenue	—	1.82B
EPS	—	1.305
FY 2027 · Annual
Revenue	—	7.45B
EPS	—	5.504
Revenue growth	About 13%	—
FY 2028 · Annual
Revenue	—	8.57B
EPS	—	6.697

What the Thesis Depends On

Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Achieve 26.5% cloud revenue growth	A primary condition in ATLASSIAN CORPORATION's published investment case. The stated target is >=26.5% YoY.	Intact	cloud revenue growth falls below 20% YoY in FY26	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Maintain gross margin at 84.5%	It plans to keep gross margin near 84.5%.	Intact	gross margin falls below 80% in next 4 quarters	Gross margin: 86.5% FY2026-Q4; GAAP. Published target: >=84.5%. The stored target says 2026-Q3; this source reports FY2026-Q4. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Source published Oct 14, 202686.50115 percent · calculatedSource reportLast status assessment Oct 24, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q4 · Period ending Date unavailable Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 9a137cb3-daa0-447b-9ab0-e3bd8fb9259e. Source status: unverified. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Successful restructuring and leadership stability	A supporting condition in ATLASSIAN CORPORATION's published investment case. The stated target is complete restructuring and stabilize leadership by end FY26.	Intact	major leadership departures or restructuring delays beyond FY26	Restructuring executed (10% workforce) & leadership stable March 2026 restructuring eliminated 10% of roles; CTO transitioned; CFO hired externally; earnings beats in April and August 2026. Context reviewed through Oct 23, 2026Last status assessment Oct 24, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-06-30 · fmp

FY2028 EPS$6.70

$7.35 → $6.70 · observed estimates

FY2028 revenue$8.57B

$8.58B → $8.57B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2028 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$7.35	$8,584,753,956	7 / 23
2026-07-25	$7.35	$8,584,753,956	7 / 23
2026-07-26	$7.25	$8,545,458,957	7 / 23
2026-07-27	$7.25	$8,545,458,957	7 / 23
2026-07-28	$7.25	$8,545,458,957	7 / 23
2026-07-29	$7.23	$8,525,472,048	7 / 23
2026-07-30	$7.23	$8,525,472,048	7 / 23
2026-07-31	$7.18	$8,504,294,007	7 / 23
2026-08-01	$7.18	$8,504,294,007	7 / 23
2026-08-02	$7.18	$8,504,294,007	7 / 23
2026-08-03	$7.18	$8,504,294,007	7 / 23
2026-08-04	$7.18	$8,501,101,773	7 / 23
2026-08-05	$7.18	$8,501,101,773	7 / 23
2026-08-06	$7.18	$8,501,101,773	7 / 23
2026-08-08	$7.18	$8,501,101,772	7 / 23
2026-08-09	$6.87	$8,560,814,440	27 / 25
2026-08-10	$6.87	$8,560,814,440	27 / 25
2026-08-12	$6.76	$8,577,890,579	30 / 29
2026-08-13	$7.18	$8,501,101,772	7 / 23
2026-08-14	$7.18	$8,501,101,772	7 / 23
2026-08-15	$7.18	$8,501,101,772	7 / 23
2026-08-16	$7.18	$8,501,101,772	18 / 26
2026-08-17	$7.18	$8,501,101,772	18 / 26
2026-08-18	$7.18	$8,501,101,772	19 / 26
2026-08-19	$7.18	$8,501,101,772	19 / 26
2026-08-20	$6.69	$8,564,128,810	15 / 22
2026-08-21	$6.69	$8,564,128,810	15 / 22
2026-08-22	$6.69	$8,564,128,810	15 / 22
2026-08-23	$6.69	$8,564,128,810	15 / 22
2026-08-24	$6.69	$8,564,128,810	15 / 21
2026-08-25	$6.69	$8,564,130,353	15 / 21
2026-08-26	$6.69	$8,564,130,353	15 / 21
2026-08-27	$6.69	$8,564,130,353	15 / 21
2026-08-28	$6.69	$8,564,130,353	15 / 21
2026-08-29	$6.68	$8,562,684,479	16 / 22
2026-08-30	$6.68	$8,562,684,479	16 / 22
2026-08-31	$6.68	$8,562,684,479	16 / 22
2026-09-01	$6.68	$8,562,684,479	16 / 22
2026-09-02	$6.68	$8,562,684,479	16 / 22
2026-09-03	$6.68	$8,562,684,479	16 / 22
2026-09-04	$6.68	$8,562,684,479	16 / 22
2026-09-05	$6.68	$8,562,684,479	16 / 22
2026-09-06	$6.68	$8,562,684,479	16 / 22
2026-09-07	$6.68	$8,562,684,479	16 / 22
2026-09-08	$6.68	$8,562,684,479	16 / 22
2026-09-09	$6.68	$8,562,684,479	16 / 22
2026-09-10	$6.68	$8,562,684,479	16 / 22
2026-09-11	$6.68	$8,562,684,479	16 / 22
2026-09-12	$6.68	$8,562,684,479	16 / 22
2026-09-13	$6.68	$8,562,684,479	16 / 22
2026-09-14	$6.68	$8,562,684,479	16 / 22
2026-09-15	$6.68	$8,562,684,479	16 / 22
2026-09-16	$6.68	$8,562,684,479	16 / 22
2026-09-17	$6.68	$8,562,684,479	16 / 22
2026-09-18	$6.68	$8,562,684,479	16 / 22
2026-09-19	$6.68	$8,562,684,479	16 / 22
2026-09-20	$6.68	$8,562,684,479	16 / 22
2026-09-21	$6.68	$8,562,684,479	16 / 22
2026-09-22	$6.68	$8,562,684,299	16 / 22
2026-09-23	$6.68	$8,562,684,299	16 / 22
2026-09-24	$6.68	$8,562,684,299	16 / 21
2026-09-25	$6.68	$8,562,684,299	16 / 21
2026-09-26	$6.68	$8,562,684,299	16 / 21
2026-09-27	$6.68	$8,562,684,299	16 / 21
2026-09-28	$6.68	$8,562,684,299	8 / 21
2026-09-29	$6.68	$8,562,684,299	14 / 19
2026-09-30	$6.68	$8,562,684,299	8 / 21
2026-10-01	$6.68	$8,562,684,299	8 / 21
2026-10-02	$6.68	$8,562,684,299	8 / 21
2026-10-03	$6.68	$8,562,684,299	8 / 22
2026-10-04	$6.68	$8,562,684,299	8 / 22
2026-10-05	$6.68	$8,562,684,299	8 / 22
2026-10-06	$6.68	$8,562,684,299	8 / 22
2026-10-07	$6.68	$8,562,684,299	8 / 22
2026-10-08	$6.68	$8,562,684,299	8 / 22
2026-10-09	$6.68	$8,562,684,299	8 / 22
2026-10-10	$6.68	$8,562,684,299	8 / 22
2026-10-11	$6.68	$8,562,684,299	8 / 22
2026-10-12	$6.68	$8,562,684,299	8 / 22
2026-10-13	$6.68	$8,562,684,299	8 / 22
2026-10-14	$6.70	$8,573,628,156	8 / 22
2026-10-15	$6.70	$8,573,514,996	8 / 23
2026-10-16	$6.70	$8,573,514,996	8 / 23
2026-10-17	$6.70	$8,573,514,996	8 / 23
2026-10-18	$6.70	$8,573,514,996	8 / 23
2026-10-19	$6.70	$8,573,514,996	8 / 23
2026-10-20	$6.70	$8,573,514,996	8 / 23
2026-10-21	$6.70	$8,573,515,146	8 / 23
2026-10-22	$6.70	$8,573,515,146	8 / 23
2026-10-23	$6.70	$8,573,515,146	8 / 23
2026-10-24	$6.70	$8,573,515,146	8 / 23

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold
2026-05-01	26	7
2026-06-01	27	7
2026-07-01	26	6
2026-08-01	28	6
2026-09-01	27	6
2026-10-01	27	6

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 27 Buy / Strong Buy · 6 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades11 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 25–Oct 24 · 11 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

UBSOct 23 · prior Oct 19

$280.00 → $252.00-10.0%

BTIGOct 20 · prior Sep 3

$230.00 → $260.00+13.0%

KeyBancOct 19 · prior Aug 7

$185.00 → $235.00+27.0%

Wells FargoOct 14 · prior Aug 7

$180.00 → $230.00+27.8%

BarclaysOct 13 · prior Aug 10

$172.00 → $222.00+29.1%

RBC CapitalOct 12 · prior Aug 25

$215.00 → $235.00+9.3%

Robert W. BairdSep 28 · prior Aug 7

$200.00 → $245.00+22.5%

$0$154.00$308.00

6 raises · 1 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 25, 2026–Oct 24, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Achieve 26.5% cloud revenue growthDirect metric needs a verified mapping
Maintain gross margin at 84.5%Gross margin: 86.5%

Next proof point

Nov 5, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

2 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

2.6%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-67.5%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

ATLASSIAN CORPORATION outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 24, 2026

What kind of bet this is

TEAM is a growth and profitability-improvement story, rather than a mature earnings compounder today. The long-term thesis is intact, with recent company momentum improving, but the evidence is mixed because it remains loss-making on the supplied earnings-quality measure and carries high risk.

What's priced into ATLASSIAN CORPORATION

TEAM trades at a 1.64 peer valuation premium, and the valuation signal points to an expensive setup. The expectations gap is 0.45, with a possible re-rating as the stated valuation driver; however, the snapshot does not explain exactly what growth or margin expectations are already embedded.

What the fundamentals likely do

Near-term results show cloud revenue growth of 29% in 2026-Q1 and 31% in 2026-Q2, alongside a move from a GAAP operating loss in Q1 to operating income in Q2. Management also reported new AI product capabilities and more than one million monthly active users for its MCP server and Teamwork Graph CLI, though the AI priority is rated mixed and fiscal 2027 GAAP operating-margin guidance is 4.5%. Near-term miss risk is rated low, but erratic earnings surprises, recent peer misses, and possible guidance cuts remain risks.

What ATLASSIAN CORPORATION hinges on

Over the next few quarters, the key company-specific swing factor is whether TEAM maintains guidance and continues converting cloud growth and product adoption into durable operating profitability. A guidance cut would be a meaningful negative; continued strong results from SAP, CRM, and NOW, or Fed rate cuts from the current 3.88%, are identified as favorable sector conditions.