Cadence Design Systems (CDNS)

NASDAQInformation TechnologySoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-10-15

$319.51-1.50%

Close 2026-10-16 · 1-day change

Read the published Living FV report summary

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 15, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Cadence Design Systems’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

+0.3%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

9.53 → 9.55 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 15 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 15, 2026 to Oct 15, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 16 to 15; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Living FV™

Living Fair Value by QuarterlyIQ

A valuation that evolves as the business changes.

A published Living FV snapshot is not available yet. The valuation workflow remains discoverable; a market target cannot supply the missing evidence.

View Living FV report and workflow

What the Thesis Depends On

Three key conditions need to be met for the investment thesis to play out.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Achieve EPS of about $4.44 per share	EPS rises to about $4.44 per share.	Broken	EPS falls below $4.20 in FY26	Diluted EPS: $1.33 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $4.39 per share. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 28, 20261.33 USD/share · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 58c8bf39-638f-4701-9965-d84b000e1bda. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 4 of last 4 quarters. GAAP diluted EPS increased from $1.23 in 2026-Q1 to $1.33 in 2026-Q2. Management raised the 2026 non-GAAP EPS outlook to $8.10 at the midpoint, reflecting consistent EPS growth and operational execution aligned with stated goals. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026
Maintain non-GAAP operating margin near 44.5%	A primary condition in Cadence Design Systems's published investment case. The stated target is 43.5% to 44.5%.	Broken	Operating margin falls below 43.0% in FY26	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Achieve ~17% year-over-year revenue growth	A primary condition in Cadence Design Systems's published investment case. The stated target is >= $6.175 billion.	Broken	Revenue falls below $6.0 billion in FY26	Revenue: $1.584B FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $6.175 billion. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Jul 28, 20261,584,451,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 58c8bf39-638f-4701-9965-d84b000e1bda. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 4 of last 4 quarters. Revenue grew from $1.474 billion in 2026-Q1 to $1.584 billion in 2026-Q2. Management raised the 2026 revenue outlook to approximately 19% growth, up from 17% earlier in the year, reflecting broad-based strength and record backlog. The trajectory is delivering consistent growth and upward revisions. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$9.55

$9.40 → $9.55 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$7.18B

$7.03B → $7.18B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$9.40	$7,030,280,660	23 / 24
2026-07-25	$9.40	$7,030,280,660	23 / 24
2026-07-26	$9.40	$7,030,280,660	23 / 24
2026-07-27	$9.40	$7,030,280,660	23 / 24
2026-07-28	$9.40	$7,030,280,660	23 / 24
2026-07-29	$9.53	$7,151,509,640	24 / 25
2026-07-30	$9.53	$7,151,509,640	24 / 25
2026-07-31	$9.51	$7,152,711,309	15 / 20
2026-08-01	$9.51	$7,152,711,309	15 / 20
2026-08-02	$9.54	$7,160,951,280	24 / 25
2026-08-03	$9.51	$7,152,711,309	15 / 20
2026-08-04	$9.53	$7,176,759,500	15 / 20
2026-08-05	$9.54	$7,160,951,280	24 / 25
2026-08-06	$9.54	$7,160,951,280	24 / 25
2026-08-07	$9.53	$7,176,759,500	15 / 20
2026-08-08	$9.53	$7,176,759,500	15 / 20
2026-08-09	$9.54	$7,160,962,510	24 / 25
2026-08-10	$9.53	$7,176,759,500	15 / 20
2026-08-11	$9.54	$7,160,962,510	24 / 25
2026-08-12	$9.53	$7,176,759,500	15 / 20
2026-08-13	$9.53	$7,176,759,500	15 / 20
2026-08-14	$9.53	$7,176,759,500	15 / 20
2026-08-15	$9.53	$7,176,759,500	15 / 20
2026-08-16	$9.53	$7,176,759,500	15 / 20
2026-08-17	$9.53	$7,176,759,500	15 / 20
2026-08-18	$9.53	$7,176,759,500	15 / 20
2026-08-19	$9.53	$7,176,759,500	15 / 20
2026-08-20	$9.53	$7,176,759,500	15 / 20
2026-08-21	$9.53	$7,176,759,500	16 / 20
2026-08-22	$9.53	$7,176,759,500	16 / 20
2026-08-23	$9.53	$7,176,759,500	16 / 20
2026-08-24	$9.53	$7,176,759,500	16 / 20
2026-08-25	$9.53	$7,176,759,500	16 / 20
2026-08-26	$9.53	$7,176,759,500	16 / 20
2026-08-27	$9.53	$7,176,759,500	16 / 20
2026-08-28	$9.53	$7,176,759,500	16 / 20
2026-08-29	$9.53	$7,176,759,500	16 / 20
2026-08-30	$9.53	$7,176,759,500	16 / 20
2026-08-31	$9.53	$7,176,759,500	16 / 20
2026-09-01	$9.53	$7,176,759,500	16 / 20
2026-09-02	$9.53	$7,176,759,500	16 / 20
2026-09-03	$9.53	$7,176,759,500	16 / 20
2026-09-04	$9.53	$7,176,759,500	16 / 20
2026-09-05	$9.53	$7,176,759,500	16 / 20
2026-09-06	$9.53	$7,176,759,500	16 / 20
2026-09-07	$9.53	$7,176,759,500	16 / 20
2026-09-08	$9.53	$7,176,759,500	16 / 20
2026-09-09	$9.53	$7,176,759,500	16 / 20
2026-09-10	$9.52	$7,167,509,087	16 / 20
2026-09-11	$9.52	$7,169,074,304	16 / 20
2026-09-12	$9.53	$7,168,862,875	16 / 20
2026-09-13	$9.53	$7,168,862,875	16 / 20
2026-09-14	$9.53	$7,168,862,875	16 / 20
2026-09-15	$9.53	$7,168,862,875	16 / 20
2026-09-16	$9.53	$7,168,862,875	16 / 20
2026-09-17	$9.53	$7,168,862,875	16 / 20
2026-09-18	$9.53	$7,168,862,875	16 / 20
2026-09-19	$9.53	$7,168,862,875	16 / 20
2026-09-20	$9.53	$7,168,862,875	16 / 20
2026-09-21	$9.53	$7,168,862,875	16 / 20
2026-09-22	$9.53	$7,168,862,875	16 / 20
2026-09-23	$9.53	$7,168,862,875	16 / 20
2026-09-24	$9.53	$7,168,862,875	16 / 20
2026-09-25	$9.53	$7,168,862,875	16 / 20
2026-09-26	$9.53	$7,168,862,875	16 / 20
2026-09-27	$9.54	$7,170,552,565	16 / 20
2026-09-28	$9.54	$7,170,552,565	16 / 20
2026-09-29	$9.54	$7,170,552,565	16 / 20
2026-09-30	$9.54	$7,170,552,565	15 / 19
2026-10-01	$9.54	$7,170,552,565	15 / 19
2026-10-02	$9.54	$7,170,552,565	15 / 19
2026-10-03	$9.55	$7,178,009,087	15 / 19
2026-10-04	$9.55	$7,178,009,087	15 / 19
2026-10-05	$9.55	$7,178,009,087	15 / 19
2026-10-06	$9.55	$7,178,009,087	15 / 19
2026-10-07	$9.55	$7,178,009,087	15 / 19
2026-10-08	$9.55	$7,178,370,425	15 / 19
2026-10-09	$9.55	$7,178,370,425	15 / 19
2026-10-10	$9.55	$7,178,370,425	15 / 19
2026-10-11	$9.55	$7,178,370,425	15 / 19
2026-10-12	$9.55	$7,178,370,425	15 / 19
2026-10-13	$9.55	$7,178,370,425	15 / 19
2026-10-14	$9.55	$7,178,370,425	15 / 19
2026-10-15	$9.55	$7,178,370,425	15 / 19

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	23	3	0
2026-06-01	22	3	1
2026-07-01	22	3	0
2026-08-01	22	3	0
2026-09-01	24	3	0
2026-10-01	23	2	0

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 23 Buy / Strong Buy · 2 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades0 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 16–Oct 15 · 0 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

Deutsche BankOct 7

$420.00New observation · no comparable prior

$0$231.00$462.00

0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 16, 2026–Oct 15, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Achieve EPS of about $4.44 per sharePublished status: Broken
Maintain non-GAAP operating margin near 44.5%Published status: Broken
Achieve ~17% year-over-year revenue growthPublished status: Broken

Next proof point

Oct 26, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.3%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-34.2%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Cadence Design Systems outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 10, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This investment represents a durable compounder with a long-term thesis that remains intact. However, the current state reflects a mix of strong management priorities and recent performance challenges.

What's priced into Cadence Design Systems

The market seems to have priced in an expensive valuation, reflecting high expectations for future performance. There is an expectations gap, indicating that the current price may not be justified by the underlying fundamentals.

What the fundamentals likely do

Fundamentals are likely to show consistent growth in revenue and earnings per share, as management has raised their outlook for both. However, there is moderate risk due to a history of earnings misses, which could impact investor confidence.

What Cadence Design Systems hinges on

The thesis hinges on management's ability to meet or exceed their growth targets and maintain margins. Additionally, external factors such as Federal Reserve interest rate decisions and the performance of key tech sector peers will play a significant role in shaping the outlook.