Datadog (DDOG)

NASDAQInformation TechnologySoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-10-15

$247.11-7.19%

Close 2026-10-16 · 1-day change

Read the published Living FV report summary

Investment OutlookAs of Oct 15, 2026

What could strengthen or challenge Datadog’s outlook?

The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.

Higher potential upsideImproving expectations

Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days

+0.1%

+10% or more+5%0%−5%−10% or less

2.96 → 2.96 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 26 analysts

Higher risk of downsideWeakening expectations

One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.

How this is measured

Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Sep 15, 2026 to Oct 15, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 25 to 26; this is not the number of analysts revising. Source: FMP consensus snapshots. The ±10% axis is a display range.

Living FV™

Living Fair Value by QuarterlyIQ

A valuation that evolves as the business changes.

A published Living FV snapshot is not available yet. The valuation workflow remains discoverable; a market target cannot supply the missing evidence.

View Living FV report and workflow

What the Thesis Depends On

Three key conditions need to be met for the investment thesis to play out.

Key Factor	Why It Matters	Current Status	Break Condition	Latest Evidence
Sustain strong demand for cloud monitoring platform	The company has a strong platform for cloud analytics and monitoring.	Improving	evidence of sustained decline in customer growth or usage	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Achieve non-GAAP EPS of $2.36-$2.44 in 2026	A primary condition in Datadog's published investment case. The stated target is >= $2.36.	Broken	EPS falls below $2.20 in FY26	Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Source date unavailableLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement.
Increase revenue to $4.30-$4.34 billion in 2026	A primary condition in Datadog's published investment case. The stated target is ~$4.32 billion.	Broken	annual revenue falls below $4.0 billion in FY26	Revenue: $1.121B FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: ~$4.32 billion. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Source published Aug 6, 20261,121,454,000 USD · source valueSource reportLast status assessment Oct 15, 2026 Measurement source consolidated · GAAP FY2026-Q2 · Period ending Jun 30, 2026 Source: company_financial_results. Reference: 7d39fc1e-acf7-41c7-b960-06a391e7fd77. Source status: eligible. Compare required operating outcomes Compare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management context Stated as a priority in 5 of last 5 quarters. Revenue grew from $761.6 million in 2025-Q1 to $1.12 billion in 2026-Q2, a 36% year-over-year increase. Management raised full year 2026 revenue guidance from $4.06-$4.10 billion in 2025-Q4 to $4.45-$4.47 billion in 2026-Q2, indicating delivery and acceleration on growth targets. Delivery assessment Oct 15, 2026

Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.

Incoming Evidence

Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above

Expectations trend

Same fiscal period

FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp

FY2027 EPS$2.96

$2.85 → $2.96 · observed estimates

FY2027 revenue$5.48B

$5.27B → $5.48B · observed estimates

Exact estimates & source dates

One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.

FY2027 estimate observations · fmp
Snapshot	EPS	Revenue	EPS / revenue analysts
2026-07-24	$2.85	$5,270,382,297	25 / 34
2026-07-25	$2.88	$5,282,386,710	45 / 45
2026-07-26	$2.88	$5,282,386,710	45 / 45
2026-07-27	$2.88	$5,282,386,710	45 / 45
2026-07-28	$2.88	$5,282,386,710	45 / 45
2026-07-29	$2.89	$5,286,957,190	45 / 45
2026-07-30	$2.89	$5,286,957,190	45 / 45
2026-07-31	$2.85	$5,280,761,366	25 / 34
2026-08-01	$2.85	$5,280,761,366	25 / 34
2026-08-02	$2.85	$5,280,761,366	25 / 34
2026-08-03	$2.88	$5,278,617,580	44 / 44
2026-08-04	$2.88	$5,278,617,580	44 / 44
2026-08-05	$2.85	$5,280,760,312	25 / 34
2026-08-06	$2.85	$5,280,760,312	25 / 34
2026-08-07	$2.86	$5,313,001,651	25 / 34
2026-08-08	$2.86	$5,313,001,651	25 / 34
2026-08-09	$2.95	$5,426,538,070	46 / 45
2026-08-10	$2.95	$5,426,538,070	46 / 45
2026-08-11	$2.96	$5,467,465,520	46 / 45
2026-08-12	$2.86	$5,313,001,651	25 / 34
2026-08-13	$2.97	$5,465,858,450	46 / 45
2026-08-14	$2.86	$5,313,001,651	25 / 34
2026-08-15	$2.86	$5,313,001,651	25 / 34
2026-08-16	$2.86	$5,313,001,651	25 / 34
2026-08-17	$2.86	$5,313,001,651	25 / 34
2026-08-18	$2.86	$5,313,001,651	25 / 34
2026-08-19	$2.86	$5,313,001,651	25 / 34
2026-08-20	$2.96	$5,465,287,728	25 / 34
2026-08-21	$2.96	$5,465,287,728	25 / 34
2026-08-22	$2.96	$5,465,288,237	25 / 34
2026-08-23	$2.96	$5,465,288,237	25 / 34
2026-08-24	$2.96	$5,465,288,237	25 / 34
2026-08-25	$2.96	$5,465,287,137	25 / 34
2026-08-26	$2.96	$5,465,287,137	25 / 34
2026-08-27	$2.96	$5,465,287,137	25 / 34
2026-08-28	$2.96	$5,465,287,137	25 / 34
2026-08-29	$2.96	$5,465,288,018	25 / 34
2026-08-30	$2.96	$5,470,364,484	25 / 34
2026-08-31	$2.96	$5,470,364,484	25 / 34
2026-09-01	$2.96	$5,470,364,484	25 / 34
2026-09-02	$2.96	$5,470,364,484	25 / 34
2026-09-03	$2.96	$5,470,364,484	25 / 34
2026-09-04	$2.96	$5,470,364,484	25 / 34
2026-09-05	$2.96	$5,470,364,484	25 / 34
2026-09-06	$2.96	$5,470,364,484	25 / 34
2026-09-07	$2.96	$5,470,364,484	25 / 34
2026-09-08	$2.96	$5,470,364,484	25 / 34
2026-09-09	$2.96	$5,470,364,484	25 / 34
2026-09-10	$2.96	$5,470,364,484	25 / 34
2026-09-11	$2.96	$5,470,364,484	25 / 34
2026-09-12	$2.96	$5,475,397,042	25 / 34
2026-09-13	$2.96	$5,475,397,042	25 / 34
2026-09-14	$2.96	$5,475,397,042	25 / 34
2026-09-15	$2.96	$5,475,397,042	25 / 34
2026-09-16	$2.96	$5,475,397,042	25 / 34
2026-09-17	$2.96	$5,475,397,042	25 / 34
2026-09-18	$2.96	$5,475,397,042	25 / 34
2026-09-19	$2.96	$5,475,397,042	25 / 34
2026-09-20	$2.96	$5,475,397,042	25 / 34
2026-09-21	$2.96	$5,475,397,042	25 / 34
2026-09-22	$2.96	$5,475,397,130	25 / 34
2026-09-23	$2.96	$5,475,397,130	25 / 34
2026-09-24	$2.96	$5,475,397,130	25 / 34
2026-09-25	$2.96	$5,475,397,130	25 / 34
2026-09-26	$2.96	$5,475,397,130	25 / 34
2026-09-27	$2.96	$5,475,397,130	25 / 34
2026-09-28	$2.96	$5,475,397,130	25 / 34
2026-09-29	$2.96	$5,475,397,130	25 / 34
2026-09-30	$2.96	$5,475,397,130	25 / 34
2026-10-01	$2.96	$5,475,392,465	25 / 34
2026-10-02	$2.96	$5,475,392,474	25 / 34
2026-10-03	$2.96	$5,475,392,474	26 / 34
2026-10-04	$2.96	$5,475,392,474	26 / 34
2026-10-05	$2.96	$5,475,392,474	26 / 34
2026-10-06	$2.96	$5,476,835,828	26 / 34
2026-10-07	$2.96	$5,476,835,828	26 / 34
2026-10-08	$2.96	$5,476,835,828	26 / 34
2026-10-09	$2.96	$5,476,835,828	26 / 34
2026-10-10	$2.96	$5,476,835,372	26 / 34
2026-10-11	$2.96	$5,476,835,372	26 / 34
2026-10-12	$2.96	$5,476,835,373	26 / 34
2026-10-13	$2.96	$5,476,835,827	26 / 34
2026-10-14	$2.96	$5,476,835,827	26 / 34
2026-10-15	$2.96	$5,476,835,827	26 / 34

Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.

Compare required revenue and earnings

Analyst view

Monthly observations

Buy / Strong BuyHoldSell / Strong Sell

Exact monthly counts

Monthly rating snapshots · fmp. Missing snapshots are not zero.
Date	Buy*	Hold	Sell*
2026-05-01	45	3	2
2026-06-01	44	2	2
2026-07-01	43	3	2
2026-08-01	42	4	2
2026-09-01	42	4	2
2026-10-01	43	3	2

*Buy includes Strong Buy; Sell includes Strong Sell. Monthly counts describe the analyst mix, not the firms behind each recent action.

Latest: 43 Buy / Strong Buy · 3 Hold · 2 Sell / Strong Sell

0 upgrades0 downgrades3 maintains

Recent actions · Sep 16–Oct 15 · 3 recorded

Price-target changes

30 days

○ Previous · ● Latest · common dollar scale

Mizuho SecuritiesOct 15 · prior Jul 15

$300.00 → $330.00+10.0%

BarclaysOct 13 · prior Jul 21

$290.00 → $300.00+3.4%

RBC CapitalOct 12 · prior Jul 16

$280.00 → $320.00+14.3%

JefferiesOct 11 · prior Aug 6

$260.00 → $300.00+15.4%

CIBCOct 9 · prior Jun 10

$280.00 → $315.00+12.5%

FBN SecuritiesOct 2

$325.00New observation · no comparable prior

$0$181.50$363.00

5 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior

How this is measured

Sep 16, 2026–Oct 15, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.

Outlook in Brief

The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next

What's improving

No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.

Still unresolved / key risks

Sustain strong demand for cloud monitoring platformDirect metric needs a verified mapping
Achieve non-GAAP EPS of $2.36-$2.44 in 2026Published status: Broken
Increase revenue to $4.30-$4.34 billion in 2026Published status: Broken

Next proof point

Nov 5, 2026

Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.

Review earnings

Bottom line

3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.

The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.

Historical risk context

Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios

Price sensitivity

1.7%Typical daily move · historical

Downside history

-48.6%Maximum drawdown · trailing year

Read detailed Outlook Company context, assumptions & risks

Datadog outlook in detail

The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.

Updated Oct 10, 2026

What kind of bet this is

This is a long-term thesis on a growth-oriented technology company. DDOG is positioned as a durable compounder with a focus on expanding its customer base and increasing revenue, though it currently faces some near-term risks and an expensive valuation relative to peers.

What's priced into Datadog

The market seems to have priced in an expensive valuation, with a premium of 7.43 compared to peers. There is an expectations gap of 0.52, indicating that investors may be anticipating strong growth, but this may not be fully justified given the current market conditions.

What the fundamentals likely do

Management is on track to meet its revenue and profitability targets, with significant year-over-year growth in revenue and an increase in non-GAAP net income per share. However, there is a low probability of missing earnings expectations, although recent trends show a decline in earnings surprises.

What Datadog hinges on

The thesis hinges on several factors, including potential interest rate cuts by the Fed, which could benefit tech stocks like DDOG. Additionally, the performance of sector leaders such as SAP, CRM, and NOW will be crucial, as their success could provide momentum for DDOG.