Reading SPIR? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track SPIR free→Reading SPIR? Track it free: the weekly brief, plus an alert if the thesis breaks. No credit card.
Track SPIR free→NYSEIndustrialsSpecialty Business ServicesSnapshot 2026-06-15
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
Recent financial performance is weak, and earnings quality is fragile, indicating that reported profits are not well-supported by cash. Management's recent track record has been volatile, and the capital stance is capital unfriendly, which adds to the high risk. The sector backdrop is a headwind, and compared with sector peers, SPIR trades below typical levels. Peer multiples imply a price about 290% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is rich, as it trades above peer multiples, and the longer horizon does not make that back through growth. This analysis is provisional.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
A consensus fair price across 1 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $18.43. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $18, SPIR's earnings are too small for P/E to mean much; on sales it trades at 6× p/s (3.9× the 2× p/s peer median). At a normal multiple the price implies ~290% near-term growth vs our ~-19% forecast. That gap is an optionality premium a financial-multiple model can't price — our $4.72 fair value covers only the as-is business, low confidence. Analysts: $15–$24. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
The market is pricing in roughly 290% near-term growth, well above our forecast of about -19%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
TTM earnings are negative, so the read leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods rather than P/E. This is a data condition, not a forward call.
Flags: expensive valuation, weak execution quality.
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Operating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Industrials names rated weak grew net income 58% of the time over the next year (vs 62% for the rest of the cohort, n=3678).
Over the trailing year it converted -1.58x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Industrials names rated fragile grew net income 56% of the time over the next year (vs 60% for the rest of the cohort, n=3333).
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, real (inflation-adjusted) rates, Fed net liquidity, long-term interest rates.
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
EPS estimate $-0.36 → $-0.27 (+26.4% / 30d). 1 raised, 0 cut, 2 covering analysts.
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 1 maintained. 75% of analysts rate Buy.
1 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 26.1% above current price.
0 positive, 0 negative / 30d.
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$457.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$909.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $5,004.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-15
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Why it matters: Earnings results will show how Spire is doing financially and in the market.
Confirms one read:Earnings report shows revenue growth or better margins from past quarters.
Confirms the other:Earnings report shows falling revenue or worse margins, which raises concerns.
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
Partnership enhances growth prospects and validates business model.
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
Departure of Directors or Certain Officers; Election of Directors; Appointment of Certain Officers; Compensatory Arrangements of Certain Officers. On May 29, 2026, Celia Pelaz, the Chief Operating Officer of Spire Global, Inc. (the “Company”), informed the Company of her decision to resign from the Company to pursue a new role with another organization effective September 30, 2026. Ms. Pelaz oversaw significant improvements in the Company’s operations, and as a result, the Company does not cu…
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Long-thesis check; widest uncertainty.
TTM earnings are negative. P/E-based methods drop out and the estimate leans on sales- and cash-flow-based methods. A data condition, not a forward call.
$15.00 – $24.00 (median $22.00) · 6 analysts · as of 2026-06-04
For similar setups historically (n=2,301): about 43% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 77% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Looks more expensive than peers.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
A side-by-side read on sector standing, valuation, and risk versus Diversified Support Services.
| Stock | Sector standing | Valuation | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
SPIR Spire Global, Inc. | Below typical Show detailsSector percentile: 7 of 100 | expensive | high |
CTAS Cintas | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 83 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
CPRT Copart | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 88 of 100 | fair | elevated |
RBA RB Global | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 71 of 100 | full | moderate |
ULS UL Solutions | Above typical Show detailsSector percentile: 82 of 100 | expensive | moderate |
14 material management or governance events in the past 24 months, led by legal/regulatory items. Historically, Industrials names rated volatile grew net income 59% of the time over the next year (vs 59% for the rest of the cohort, n=840).
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
via XLI
Tailwind = sector leading the S&P 500; headwind = trailing. Both can be constructive. Historically, headwind regimes have averaged stronger forward returns than tailwind.
Context label only: describes the market state (e.g. real bear vs narrative panic, healthy uptrend vs late-stage froth). It is not a per-ticker buy/sell signal and does not predict factor performance.
Not investment advice. As of 2026-06-15.
Priorities management has stated in recent disclosures, with status and evidence drawn from earnings calls, filings, and press releases.
Spire aims for over 50% revenue growth in 2026 excluding maritime revenue.
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Revenue in 2026-Q1 was $15.834M, slightly up from $15.825M in 2025-Q4. The trajectory shows limited progress towards the over 50% growth target, as revenue growth remains stagnant.
“Spire expects 2026 revenue, excluding maritime revenue, to grow at over 50% from 2025.”
“Given the revenue movement out of 2025, Spire now expects in excess of 30% revenue growth in 2026 for the business remaining after the maritime divestiture.”
Spire aims for adjusted EBITDA between -$26M and -$20.7M for fiscal year 2026.
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Operating income in 2026-Q1 was -$24.575M, compared to -$23.115M in 2025-Q4. The trajectory indicates limited progress towards the adjusted EBITDA target, as operating losses remain substantial.
“Adjusted EBITDA $ (26.0 ) $ (20.7 )”
“Adjusted EBITDA $ (26.0 ) $ (20.7 )”
Spire provides revenue guidance of $75M to $85M for the fiscal year 2026.
Stated in 2 of last 2 quarters. Revenue in 2026-Q1 was $15.834M, slightly up from $15.825M in 2025-Q4. The trajectory shows limited progress towards the $75M to $85M annual revenue guidance, as quarterly revenue remains flat.
“FY'26 Ranges (in millions, except percentages and per share amounts) Low High Revenue $ 75.0 $ 85.0”
Why it matters: If revenue growth in the industrials sector picks up, it could benefit Spire's performance.
Confirms:Sector revenue growth is speeding up again. This shows a stronger market.
Disproves:Sector revenue growth keeps slowing down. This shows ongoing challenges.
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On May 13, 2026, Spire Global, Inc. (“Spire”) issued a news release announcing its financial results for the quarter ended March 31, 2026. Spire will also host an earnings call on May 13, 2026, during which Spire will discuss its financial results for the quarter ended March 31, 2026 and provide a business update. A copy of the news release issued by Spire is attached as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K and is incorporated herein b…
Termination of a Material Definitive Agreement. On April 23, 2026, Spire Global Canada Subsidiary Corp. (the “Company”), a wholly owned subsidiary of Spire Global, Inc., received a written notice terminating for convenience, effective immediately, the contract with His Majesty the King in right of Canada, as represented by the Minister of Public Works and Government Services (“PWGS”), pursuant to which the Company agreed to design and develop the WildFireSat constellation of satellites to mon…
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement. On April 8, 2026, Spire Global, Inc. (the “Company”) entered into a securities purchase agreement (the “Purchase Agreement”) with the purchasers named therein (the “Purchasers”), for the private placement (the “Private Placement”) of 5,000,000 shares (the “Shares”) of the Company’s Class A common stock, par value $0.0001 per share (the “Common Stock”), at a purchase price of $14.00 per Share. The aggregate gross proceeds for the Private Placement we…
Unregistered Sales of Equity Securities. The disclosures set forth in
“Spire is providing the following guidance for the first quarter 2026 and full year ending December 31, 2026.”