Spire Global, Inc. (SPIR)
NYSEIndustrialsSpecialty Business ServicesSnapshot 2026-09-09
$11.49-5.35%
Close 2026-09-09 · 1-day change
NYSEIndustrialsSpecialty Business ServicesSnapshot 2026-09-09
Broken: Primary pillar broken — Keep adjusted EBITDA loss between -$26M and -$20.7M in 2026: FY26 EBITDA guidance mid -$35.2M vs target -$26M.
Spire aims to grow revenue over 50% in 2026. Revenue guidance is $75M to $85M. The company plans to keep adjusted EBITDA losses under $26M. New satellite launches and partnerships support growth.
Spire is still losing money with negative EPS. Revenue growth may slow below 35%. Management changes and contract losses add risk.
The price is about 8% above our fair value near $16. Analysts expect 35% revenue growth. Our fair value is 28% below the Street median.
Breaks if: Adjusted EBITDA loss exceeds -$26M in FY26
Maintain adjusted EBITDA losses within the range of -$26 million to -$20.7 million for full year 2026.
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
This investment represents a speculative growth opportunity. The company is currently loss-making and has volatile management, but it aims for significant revenue growth in the coming years.
The market appears to have priced in a low expectations gap, indicating that investors are not overly optimistic about SPIR's near-term performance. The valuation is considered cheap compared to peers, but there is a premium due to the optionality in its growth potential.
Management is focused on achieving over 50% revenue growth excluding maritime, but recent financial performance has been weak. The adjusted EBITDA has shown some improvement, but the overall trajectory remains mixed with a high near-term risk of missing guidance.
The future performance of SPIR hinges on the guidance provided in the next earnings call and the performance of sector bellwethers like CTAS, CPRT, and ROL. Positive momentum in the Industrials sector could support SPIR, while negative trends could lead to further challenges.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Yes, our read has weakened. The company reaffirmed its full-year revenue guidance, implying 50% core revenue growth. However, a sharp drop in the stock price suggests the market is repricing the thesis. Additionally, the company faces challenges in achieving adjusted EBITDA targets between -$26M and -$20.7M.
as of 2026-09-09
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Stated as a priority in 2 of last 2 quarters. Adjusted EBITDA improved from ($10.2) million in 2025-Q2 to ($8.6) million in 2026-Q2, showing a 16% improvement year-over-year. Full year 2026 guidance targets adjusted EBITDA between -$26.0M and -$20.7M. The trajectory shows delivering progress toward the adjusted EBITDA target.
“Adjusted EBITDA (1) of ($8.6) million in second quarter 2026 improved 16% compared to prior year adjusted EBITDA of ($10.2) million.”
“Adjusted EBITDA (1) was ($10.2) million in first quarter 2026, above the high end of the guidance range.”
Breaks if: Loss of key executives or high turnover
Breaks if: Revenue falls below $75M in FY26
Drive revenue growth excluding maritime business by over 50% in 2026 compared to 2025.
Stated as a priority in 2 of last 2 quarters. Management reaffirmed in Q1 and Q2 2026 that 2026 revenue excluding maritime is expected to grow over 50% from 2025. Q2 2026 revenue was $18.0M, up 16% year-over-year excluding maritime, showing progress but still short of full-year target growth. The trajectory shows delivering progress toward this growth goal.
“Based on the midpoint of its 2026 guidance, Spire expects 2026 revenue, excluding maritime revenue, to grow at over 50% from 2025.”
“Based on the midpoint of its 2026 guidance, Spire expects 2026 revenue, excluding maritime revenue, to grow at over 50% from 2025.”
Maintain full year 2026 revenue guidance in the range of $75 million to $85 million.
Stated as a priority in 2 of last 2 quarters. Management reaffirmed full year 2026 revenue guidance of $75 million to $85 million in Q1 and Q2 2026. Q2 2026 revenue was $18.0 million, up 16% excluding maritime sequentially, indicating progress toward the annual guidance. The trajectory is delivering toward this revenue guidance.
“Spire is providing the following guidance for the full year ending December 31, 2026: Revenue $75.0 to $85.0 million.”
In the next 1 to 3 years, SPIR's success will depend on its ability to execute on growth targets amid a challenging environment. Not investment advice.
“Spire is providing the following guidance for the full year ending December 31, 2026: Revenue $75.0 to $85.0 million.”